In the first half of the year, the meat price "V -type" reversed, and the new round of pig cycle opened?

23.06.2022

Number of this text: 2422, the reading time is about 4 minutes older

Guide: For the current rising pig prices, whether the short -term pig price rebounds, or the "pig cycle" reversal, there is controversy in the industry.

Author | First Finance Shao Haipeng

When the price of pork continued to rebound, on June 22, Hua Chu.com issued a notice that it will carry out the 13th batch of central reserve frozen pork and storage on June 24th, and 40,000 tons of the collection and storage bidding transactions.

Since the beginning of this year, the central reserve of frozen pork and storage has been frequent, and 12 batches have been carried out so far. However, with the bottom of the pig price to the end of March, the central reserves of frozen pork and storage have been shot multiple times. Although the industry is expected to be very low in the industry, the collection and storage still plays the role of "policy vane".

Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst of the pork industry chain monitoring and early warning of the entire industrial chain of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told the first financial reporter that from the current point of view of pig prices, the industry has reached the full average cost of the industry. Xu Hongzhi, a senior researcher of Bryk, said that slaughtering and breeding companies did not think how much impact on the market supply and demand status of the market, but it would treat the collection and storage as a policy vane, which was intended to encourage production and stabilizing the market.

In the first half of the year, pig prices staged a "V -type" reversal

According to Brick data, as of June 22, except for low -priced areas in Sichuan, Yunnan and northwest, pig prices in other provinces and cities generally exceeded 17 yuan/kg. In the early Northeast region with lower pig prices, the recent increase has also been obvious. The price of pigs in Guangdong has risen to 19-19.4 yuan/kg.

Data source: Bryk Agricultural Big Data

Since 2022, domestic pig prices have fallen first. In mid-March, the average price of pigs in the country fell to 11.35 yuan/kg, and pig prices in local areas even fell to 10.50-10.80 yuan/kg. Starting in late March, the industry's profit -making policy was obvious, and the large pigs in the early stage decreased. In the third quarter of 2021, the impact of sows' large concentration eliminations gradually reflected. As a result, pig prices rose steadily.

Taking the average price of pigs in the country as an example, from 11.35 yuan/kg in mid -March to the current 17 yuan/kg, it means that the price of pigs has rebounded by 50%; if it is not distinguished, the lowest price from mid -March is 10.5 Yuan/kg, rising to the current highest price of 19.4 yuan/kg, means that pig prices rose 84.8%.

According to the calculation of the Ministry of Commerce, as of the week of June 17, the price of white pigs was reported at 21.59 yuan/kg, which has risen by more than 20%compared to the low of 17.5 yuan/kg in mid -March. East Asia Qianhai Securities Research reported on the trend of pig prices that the early production capacity exfoliating effect gradually appeared, and the supply of pigs in the second half of the year is expected to decline, and the pig price center may rise.

Regarding whether the current pig price rises, whether the short -term pig price rebounds, or the "pig cycle" reversal, there is controversy in the industry.

Wang Zuli, chief expert of the surveillance and early warning of the pig industry monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the national economic post of the national pig industry technology system, Wang Zuli told the first financial reporter that according to the lowest point of the "pig cycle" at the "pig cycle" At the end of the pig price in March this year, a new round of "pig cycle" has been opened, and the price of pigs is currently on the upward channel.

Xu Hongzhi also mentioned that the officially announced data on the sow's storage column has declined for 10 consecutive months since July 2021, and it did not start to rise until May, which means that in normal state, from May 2022 to March 2023 The supply of fattening pigs will continue to decline, and pig prices will enter the upward channel.

He said that pig prices rose significantly since May, which confirmed this judgment. At present, various factors that restrict pig prices, such as weak consumption, and some companies can only interrupt this reversal momentum due to tight funds.

However, Zhu Zengyong believes that the current rising pig prices are essentially a seasonal rebound.

He explained that the current volume of the sowing sow is in a reasonable range, the supply fundamentals have not changed, and the supply of pork in the future is still sufficient. At this stage, the rebound of pig prices is the improvement of the situation of supply and demand. From the phases of excess supply in March and April to the basic balance of supply and demand, it has changed from lower than the industry's complete cost to approaching or slightly higher than the cost line. Generally speaking, the most significant feature of the new round of pig cycles will be that the supply and pig prices will show narrow seasonal fluctuations.

The collection and storage multiple flow shots continue to be closed and stored

Although the base price of each batch will be adjusted according to the market price. For example, the first batch of collection and storage transaction price is 19135 yuan/ton, and the 12th batch of storage storage base prices have been raised to more than 25,000 yuan/ton, but 12 this year's 12 this year will be 12 this year. Approval of storage transaction data, especially in recent batches, but very bleak.

Data source: Bryk Agricultural Big Data

Mouyi (Agriculture and Animal Husbandry) Chairman Wang Zhong told the First Financial reporter that from the 12 batches of collection and storage since 2022, the flow rate has reached 90%or more. The collection and storage itself has symbolic significance, frequent collection and storage and high current shooting rates, which have been interpreted by the industry as the "high price" attitude of relevant departments, which has a certain supporting role in market confidence.

Because the current pig price rebounds strongly, the collection and storage are no longer attractive. Xu Hongzhi said that the slaughtering enterprises have strongly seen the multi -market outlook, and the library is to rise, and the current collection and storage profits can no longer attract their entry bidding. In addition, the rules restrictions of frozen pork are prioritized and time -priority are prioritized; the storage and storage of the past is the social database, and the enterprise needs to settle and store it by themselves; The situation is also hindered by the enthusiasm of bidding. The industry predicts that the 13th batch of central reserve frozen pork is collected and stored, and the transaction rate will still be very low. However, in Zhu Zengyong's opinion, in May, the sow's storage column rose to rise, and the production of pigs could land steadily. From the perspective of pig production or pig price, the market effect of the collection and storage has been effectively achieved.

According to statistics, the first 12 batches of central reserves of frozen pork and storage are planned to be closed for 478,000 tons. However, the actual collection and reserves are only about 100,000 tons. According to the 80 kg carcass, the frozen pork stored this year is equivalent to 1.25 million pigs. Compared with 670 million pigs in 2021, the direct impact of reserve meat on the market is not great.

Xu Hongzhi said that the main significance lies in boosting confidence, conducting expected management, and preventing the ups and downs of production capacity and price. Wang Zhong believes that the fundamentals and market emotions of supply and demand will still be the two major factors affecting pig prices.

Zhu Zengyong believes that the collection of frozen pork storage in the central government is mainly to play the role of "four or two pounds". Since the implementation of the central and local governments in 2009, the central and local governments have been collected and storage. With the continuous improvement of the collection and storage mechanism, it has become an important means of regulating the market.

In order to regulate domestic pig prices, many countries around the world have taken both measures and adopted measures including collection and storage.

Zhu Zengyong said that the United States, the European Union and Japan have frozen pork collection and storage policies, but the collection and reserves are very small. For example, since 2021, the prices of pork in the European Union have fallen, and the private collection and storage of frozen pork has been implemented. Some EU pork exporters, such as Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the Netherlands have supported the policy.

In addition, the United States and the European Union, as the two major pork export markets in the world, have adopted regulatory measures to encourage pork exports, such as providing pork export subsidies and opening up new pork export markets. Japan regulates pig prices by increasing and decreased pork imports. From the perspective of stabilizing production, internationally, it will also prevent pig prices from affecting production capacity by providing emergency assistance subsidies, discount loans, and pig insurance insurance measures, and then effectively stabilize pig prices.

Zhu Zengyong said that in Europe and the United States, pig prices have also fluctuated many times. For example, since this year, pig prices in the European Union have risen sharply, while the previous year has fallen sharply. To this end, European and American countries have adopted policies and measures including the production stable support, market regulation and trade regulation.

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