International oil prices fell below $ 104?In the early days of early May, oil prices are finally coming down?

Recently, oil prices can be said to be the topic that everyone is most concerned about. The rising oil price rising in multiple rounds has made many people feel "the oil can't afford", but the recent decline in international oil prices has fallen. It even fell below the $ 104 US dollar to a new low since May. Many people are asking whether the international oil price is finally coming down?

1. Is the international oil price below $ 104?

According to the financial industry on June 22, WTI crude oil futures declined rapidly to 5%, falling below $ 104/barrel, a new low since early May. Brent crude oil fell 4.4%to fall below $ 110.

Mc Monigle, Secretary -General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), said that only oil -producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE can increase oil. They have about 2 million barrels of idle capacity, while the US output growth is lower than expected. Since the beginning of this year, the price of cloth oil has risen by about 50%, and as the market has tightened, the price of refined oil has also reached many years. MC Monigle said that in the second half of 2022, the market price of crude oil will rise and volatility will increase. With the restoration of the epidemic blockade in Asian countries, the supply of aviation fuel needs to recover, and the supply may be tense. When the current production increase is planned to expire in August, OPEC+may increase production. The organization has appointed a new secretary -general, which is an opportunity to change the policy. The change is coming, and it is unclear what the change is.

In addition, the rising cost of energy projects and the problem of supply chain have increased the difficulty of procurement equipment, which may suppress (energy) investment. According to IEF data, the investment will be lower than 441 billion US dollars in 2019 for the third consecutive year, endangering the future energy security. IEF said last year that to meet the global demand for crude oil and petroleum products, the annual investment needs to be maintained at about $ 525 billion until 2030.

2. Is the international oil price finally coming down?

In fact, it is still very happy to see that the current international oil prices have fallen. After all, the decline in international oil prices means that after a period of time, domestic oil prices are likely to fall. In this background Optimistic attitude, but we have to consider the decline in international oil prices. It is not so simple. We still have to analyze a more detailed analysis:

First of all, we must understand that the current decline in international oil prices is actually the consolidation process of international oil prices after a period of high operation. Therefore, in this case, from now on, we have not found that international oil prices have entered the decline channel. Under the state of international oil prices not yet comprehensively entering the decline channel, in fact, how long the international oil prices can last, and how much the price level can fall. It is good news, but whether it can continue to fall, in fact, from the entire trend, we have not obtained enough evidence to prove that international oil prices have entered a passage of decline.

Secondly, we must understand that the reason why the current international oil prices will rise in large -scale rising is that the supply and demand of international oil has a big problem. Therefore, the current international oil price must be analyzed. Back to the level of supply and demand for analysis.

From the perspective of the demand level of oil, the current international oil demand is actually in a high state. The entire market is actually in a state of relatively fast recovery speed. It is affected by the epidemic. For a period of time, but now it has begun to enter the recovery period, so under such a background, the demand for international oil is actually increasing, and we have full reasons to believe that this recovery may still be in the future. Continue, so under such circumstances, the demand for international oil may continue to grow.

From the perspective of oil supply, the current supply of the international oil market is still in a low level. This aspect is because of the geopolitical conflict in Europe, which still has not been properly resolved. The end result is that the entire market is relatively concerned, and oil supply is insufficient. On the other hand, the OPEC country represented by Saudi Arabia has always been in the state of cheating officials. They have no plans to increase oil production at all. Although OPEC has the possibility of increasing production, this possibility will be in the end. How long does it last? Still an unknown.

Therefore, in the state of disappearing, the overall supply of international oil supply is still relatively powerful. This is the reason for the long -term operation of international oil prices.

Third, the international crude oil on the current market will still be in a high -level operation. This is the biggest pressure of international crude oil at present, so under the current situation, this high oil price may still continue. At least in a short period of time, it may not enter a comprehensive downward cycle, so for us, we may still have to set the law to save the use of petroleum resources, and more resource replacement through new energy methods. The impact of lack of oil supply to us.

- END -