Daoda Investment Notes: The reaction of the exchange rate and the A -share association is not good, the reaction is limited

The news of the central bank's statement rose after the news of the night before the night before.

The exchange rate stability can stabilize market confidence to a certain extent, and it may be that the historical trend of A shares and the exchange rate may not be so convincing. The most typical is the second half of 2014 to mid -2015. At that time, the US dollar was also in an appreciation cycle, but A shares started a wave market.

In the final analysis, the reason for the A -share market itself, emotional continues, and market confidence is generally insufficient. Therefore, everyone also saw that yesterday A shares responded to the good response to the benefits of the night before, and it lasted for only a long time. It is a routine "operation" of the disadvantaged market. Presumably everyone will not feel surprised.

No need to panic

I saw a data yesterday, about the historical net break. Da Ge felt a certain reference. Due to the economic cycle, it is difficult to compare the market valuation with the PE indicator at different periods, and the comparison with PB is relatively stable.

As of the day before yesterday, the proportion of A -shares broke net stocks was only when the 998 -point period of 2005 and the 1664 o'clock in 2008, and the net rate was higher than the low on April 29, 2022. In other words, the current number of net -breaking stocks is more than the low point in 2022, and it is now the time when the number of solo stocks broke the net has been the largest since 2008.

There is no exception, no matter in 2005, 2008, or 2018, a good wave or structural bull market ushered in. Many institutions combined with the current low valuation of major indexes, they believe that the current market probability is in the historical bottom area. This view also agrees with Digo, and there is no need to panic.

However, it is common for the stock market to rise over. At the level of trading, it is still necessary to follow the trading rules. Before I saw a clear bottom signal of the market, my suggestion was to test the water temperature in light warehouses. As for where the index level is better, I also have predicted in the article last weekend. As for what will happen, it must be objective according to the operation of the market.

Although it was mentioned earlier, the market is not surprising, but if you look at the last 4 trading days, the low -opening and high rebound fell on Monday; Xiao Gao opened Changyang to rebound on Tuesday; Found, this is a typical shrinkage of yin falling trend. At present, the k -line of the market is bonded together. If there is another worry about the release of emotions, it will be more conducive to short -term bottoming.

It is not important to break the 3000 points of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. According to the convention, after the "withdrawal day" before the holiday, the probability will be red.

Highlights in AD

On the disk, the medical equipment has been performed continuously in the past few days, and it is very rare. The common logic behind it is that the strength of the mining is mild, and the investment logic of the large pharmaceutical sector, especially the innovative drugs and medical devices, will be repaired. Among them, medical devices also benefit from the expectations of new medical infrastructure, so the increase is very strong.

From the perspective of the transaction volume amplification, there are obviously large capital intervention. This type of sector with funds involved before the festival is obviously concerned. The sector index has a short -term breakthrough pressure level, laying a foreshadowing for the subsequent strengthening, but the cumulative rebound of the low position is not small. The pressure above the 60 -day moving average. It is best not to buy.

The coal mining sector is also performing, mainly after the "Beixi" natural gas pipeline was destroyed, the expectations of the European energy crisis began to rise again. It was strange that the funds did not speculate on the day before yesterday. The day before yesterday, the sector index was weakening. Yesterday, I tried to repair self -rescue in the structure. It can only be said that the repair is okay. The structure of many stocks in the interior remains relatively stable, the overall position is relatively high, and the midline is not suitable for intervention.

Those who have fallen high are the strong sections a few days ago, such as real estate, attractions tourism, hotel catering, etc. A few days after a few days, it was already the norm of the recent market. The funds are not confident. As soon as there is a profit, the sector is poorly sustained. If there is a mistake in rhythm, it is easy to quilt.

In terms of short -term emotions, although the number of stocks in Lian Bo is maintained, the daily limit of individual stocks drops, and the number of daily limit is less than the number of daily limit. In the case of a slightly normal market, there are more than 40 individual stocks of stocks that have passed. From the data of yesterday's daily limit, it is obviously weaker.

However, the competition between high -benchmarks yesterday was very exciting. The continued decrease in the stock sealing order during the early market for the bidding period, which indicates that the opening of the board in the market is a high probability event, but the afternoon seagull residents can perfectly achieve the second high -end company. The top textbook of the board card. However, just when everyone thought that the seagulls would become the market's emotional direction, AD's shares magically came to a strong counterattack at 14:30, and they pulled the daily limit. What is even more surprising is that after the shares of AD, it fell at 14:57 at the end of the end. It was re -sealed by a list of ten million yuan, becoming the finishing touch throughout the day. Follow -up, whether the shares can be connected by AD, is self -evident to the short -term market's short -term emotions. (Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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