Srbang 800 tons/year POE Chinese trial project put into production Oriental Shenghong: POE price may fall in the future

On September 28th, Dongfang Shenghong (SZ000301, a stock price of 17.99 yuan, and a market value of 111.8 billion yuan) held a "new photovoltaic membrane material project to successfully put into production press conference" in Nanjing, announcing that all subsidiaries Jiangsu Sierbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (following below For short, "Silbang") 800 tons/year POE (polyolefin elastomer) produced the product output product for output, and the project was successful in one -time driving.

On the same day, Dongfang Shenghong announced that on September 27, the Chinese trial installation successfully achieved the complete autonomy of the POE catalyst and a full set of production technology, the project was successful at one time, successfully opened the entire process, produced qualified products, and continuously operated.

At the press conference, Li Xiujie, deputy chief engineer of Silbang, said in response to a question from the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the POE test project is currently just an experimental device. After the driving is successful, many experimental work must be done, and it is generally not too much. It will pursue long -term operation, so it will not grasp cost control, and will pursue control costs after realizing industrial production in the future.

Most of the new capacity construction funds have been implemented

According to the data, POE is a random cluster of a single monomer of ethylene/α-olefin. It has good low temperature toughness and easy heat plastic processing. In areas such as adhesives. In recent years, the rapid growth of photovoltaic, car lightweight, and emerging industries such as plastic steel, and artificial grass has driven the rapid growth of POE demand.

In the context of "carbon neutralization", the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry has significantly driven the development of photovoltaic glue film. POE demand has gained significant growth, and the product market has better prospects. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, as of 2021, China's photovoltaic components have reached 182GW. At present, the market penetration rate of POE photovoltaic glue film has been between 27%-30%. Ton.

According to the Asian Chemical Consultation, the production of photovoltaic components from 2022-2025 increased year by year to 325GW, and calculated according to the penetration rate of POE photovoltaic glue film to 35%and 45%year by year. In conservative situations, domestic POE film demand will increase from about 260,000 tons in 2021 to about 570,000 tons in 2025. In the case of optimism, the demand for POE rubber film will reach about 730,000 tons, which means that the photovoltaic field 2025 will be 2025 The demand for POE in the year is 2.2-2.8 times in 2021.

Dongfang Shenghong announcement shows that according to the company's new energy and new materials strategic layout, Silbang will continue to focus on the research and development and production capacity expansion of photovoltaic EVA and POE in the future. Among them, EVA's overall planning capacity is 1 million tons (currently 300,000 has already been 300,000 Ton production capacity), POE overall planning capacity of 500,000 tons (installment construction).

According to Wang Jun, the secretary of Dongfang Shenghong, about the newly added 700,000 tons of EVA production capacity, Silbang has now begun to build the first set of 200,000 tons of control devices. The capacity of capacity is gradually launched within a month, and finally by the end of 2025, Srbon will complete a million tons of EVA production capacity. In addition, Wang Jun also said that most of the new EVA and POE production capacity construction funds in the future have been implemented.

Domestic POE demand is still mainly imported

According to Li Xiujie, because foreign companies have patented the catalyst required for the production of POE, and tightly blocked the process technology of high-carbon alpha-olefins that produce important raw materials for POE. With foreign companies such as ExxonMobil, there are no domestic companies to industrialized POE products, and all demand rely on imports.

In 2021, the global POE production capacity was about 1.58 million tons, and the global POE consumption was about 1.36 million tons, of which the photovoltaic demand consumption accounted for about 24%. Essence

From 2017 to 2021, China ’s POE consumption growth rate increased higher, and it had increased by nearly three times in five years. Among them, from 2017 to 2020, the import volume of POE increased rapidly, and from 2021 to 2022, the growth rate of POE's imports slowed down, but the price rose rapidly, from the average price of 14,000 yuan/ton in January 2021 to rose to reached to rose to reached to to to the same price to rose to reached to rose to reached to to to the same price of 14,000 yuan/ton to to rose to to to to to to the same price to rose to to to to to the same way The average price in June 2022 was 24600 yuan/ton.

Li Xiujie said that the changes in these two stages reflect the rapid growth of domestic POE demand, the shortage of overseas supply production capacity, and the lack of supply to the Chinese market. Therefore, the road of localization of POE needs to break through.

So, does Dongfang Shenghong's POE production capacity in the next 500,000 tons/year alleviate the rise in POE prices? In this regard, Li Xiujie responded to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the chemical industry is affected by market supply and demand, and there will be more or less cycles. As the company's POE production capacity gradually releases, the price should be significantly declined, but it is still still It depends on the needs of the lower reaches. If the demand is still strong, the price may be high.

Daily Economic News

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