Fengkou Think Tank · Chief Connection | Zhong La Lian Pang Ye: The depreciation of the renminbi is not strong, and it is still a strong currency

Liu Xiao, chief reporter of Fengkou Finance Liu Xiao

Since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous interest rate hikes of the United States, the US dollar index has continued to strengthen, and non -US dollar currencies, including RMB, have depreciated to varying degrees. On September 28, the renminbi was under pressure in the early days of the RMB, and both shores and offshore RMB fell below the 7.2 mark against the US dollar. On September 5th, the People's Bank of China decided that starting from September 15, 2022, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was 2 percentage points. On September 26, in order to stabilize the foreign exchange market expectations and strengthen macro -prudential management, the People's Bank of China decided to increase the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business from 0 to 20%from September 28.

Will the renminbi continue to depreciate? How long can the strength of the dollar last? What should I pay attention to for some export -oriented companies? On September 28, Fengkou Finance's exclusive dialogue, Pang Ye, chief economist and director of research department of Greater China.

Fengkou Finance: On September 28, the RMB was under pressure on the early trading of the RMB, and the shore and offshore RMB fell below the 7.2 mark against the US dollar, and the daily decline exceeded 500 points. What do you think is the main reasons for the recent depreciation of the renminbi? Is the renminbi the basis of continuous depreciation?

Pang Ye: Since the beginning of this year, my country's macro policy has strengthened counter -cyclical and cross -periodic adjustment. The RMB exchange rate is based on market supply and demand. Supply and demand is basically balanced.

The recent trend of the RMB exchange rate is more about the devaluation of the passiveness of the US dollar in the background of the US dollar index recently. In general, the depreciation expectations are not strong, and they are still strong currencies.

In the short term, the US dollar curve still has a motivation to rise to the right end, and if the Fed continues to use the eagle position to radical interest rate hikes, the difference between China and the United States may continue to increase. Factors such as the haze of the energy crisis and geopolitical uncertainty may increase the "shelter" attribute of US dollar assets. The US dollar is expected to continue to maintain a strong position for a period of time, and the RMB exchange rate may still be under pressure.

However, under the new normal of the elasticity and amplitude of the two -way fluctuations in two -way fluctuations, in the long run, many positive factors behind the support will continue to exist, and reflect that the Chinese economy is growing, regulating structure, risk control, and promoting the tasks of reforming all tasks. The successful practice and effective balance between the between the middle period, in the mid -term, the implementation of the policy of stabilizing the economy, the efficiency of the continuation policy and measures, the efficiency of the continuous policy and measures, the strengthening of the endogenous growth momentum of the market body, the continuation of the development trend of the Chinese national economic recovery, the high level of prosperity remains a high level In the short term, the relevant departments clearly released the basic stable policy signals of the stable foreign exchange market expectations and maintained the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, indicating that the determination to maintain the target of the exchange rate stable policy, giving the RMB unilateral depreciation of the unilateral depreciation of the RMB "cooling", it is expected Slow down the pressure of excessive depreciation of the renminbi, promote the balanced supply and demand of the domestic foreign exchange market, and return the RMB exchange rate to the reasonable and balanced level. To a certain extent, it can inhibit the unilateral depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, irrational hypertimination, and the possible "sheep effect effects "".

Wind Finance: In September, the central bank's two shots to stabilize the foreign exchange market, which helps to crack down on RMB to short, stabilize market expectations, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable balance. In the next step, if the RMB exchange rate continues to leave the US dollar index, what tools are there in the central bank?

Pang Ye: Considering that my country's macroeconomic volume is expanding, stronger toughness, and the reform of the marketization of exchange rates have enhanced the resistance to external shocks, the autonomy and stability of the financial system, the increase in the attraction of RMB assets, and the strong dollar to my country Limited influence. However, in order to cope with the external impact brought by a strong US dollar, it should be committed to doing a good job of cross -cyclical design. On the one hand, it should continue to deepen the market -oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, enhance the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen the expected management, improve the cross -border financing macro prudential Management, guide market players to adhere to the concept of "risk neutrality", maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and on the other hand, we should continuously deepen financial openness and enhance the attraction of RMB assets in the country.

In general, the central bank's policy tool box has many choices and large space. It can continue to strengthen communication with the market, guide expectations, eliminate doubts, maintain the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, continue to play the functions of price leverage to regulate the market supply and demand, promote the self -balance of foreign exchange markets. Release external pressure in a timely and effective manner, deal with the internal balance and external balance of balance, strengthen the surveillance and judgment of the foreign exchange market and macro -prudential management, strengthen the monitoring and response of cross -border funds flow risks, strengthen the prevention and control of risk in key foreign exchange areas, maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market to operate the stable operation of the foreign exchange market Essence The rational trading behavior of the enterprise's "settlement of foreign exchange and purchase of foreign exchange" can also effectively calm down some exchange rate adjustments to maintain the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate and ensure the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market.

In the next step, if the RMB exchange rate continues to leave the trend of abnormal fluctuations in the US dollar index, there will be excessive and excessive depreciation, and the central bank and other relevant departments can further take effective measures to regulate counter -cycle when necessary. In addition to raising the risk reserve ratio of foreign exchange foreign exchange risk, we can continue to introduce counter -cyclical adjustment factor guidance to the intermediate quotation, strengthen the management of cross -border funds liquidity, and the management of financial accounts, increase the issuance of offshore market tickets, central tickets to issue offshore markets, Measures such as regulating offshore RMB liquidity.

Wind Finance: How long do you think the strength of the US dollar will last? What impact will it bring to the world economy, especially the emerging economy? Pang Ye: The pace of interest rate hikes of the Fed continues to exceed expectations, the rhythm of other major developed economies, the increase in market risk aversion, and weak non -US dollar currency performance. reason. Considering that the US economic recovery and labor market are still at a relatively high level of intention, the Fed continues to adhere to the radical interest rate hike cycle to curb inflation momentum. In the short term, the US dollar index will continue to maintain an upward trend. The market return to the United States, which has continued to put pressure on non -US dollar asset prices and non -US dollar currency exchange rates.

The phased mismatch of supply and demand under the epidemic, excess liquidity problems, and changes in population structure, changes in labor productivity, oligarchs in the production and supply field of commodities and raw materials The problem of long -term structural changes in the degree of degree may further promote the inflation level and interest rate hike expectations of developed economies, and continue to increase the risk of global stagflation, which is not conducive to the global economic recovery.

In particular, emerging economies may continue to endure lower economic growth and even stagnate. There are emerging economies with structural problems, lack of liquidity, fiscal deficit, foreign debt crisis, unbalanced international income and expenditure, and repeated epidemic. In particular, they need to be fully vigilant and prepared Essence

Fengkou Finance: From the current situation, what suggestions do you have for some exterior enterprises in China?

Pang Ye: For industries and enterprises with high export -oriented enterprises, especially exporting, strong international pricing power, and foreign currency assets, the devaluation of the renminbi will have a certain positive impact on export business, operating performance and profits. The overseas income of export business is expected to benefit from exchange income and promote the increase in profits. However, for specific enterprises, specific problems should be analyzed. For some foreign trade companies that originally occupied the market with low cost as a competitive advantage, it is possible that the price of imported raw materials and core components that are priced at the US dollar is pushed by the US dollar.

The change of the RMB exchange rate is mainly determined by the market. It may be appreciated, depreciated, elastic, and two -way fluctuations. Therefore, market players should adhere to the concept of "risk neutrality", strengthen exchange rate risk management, incorporate exchange rate fluctuations in daily financial decisions, and minimize the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the main business and corporate finances, and the net openness of imports and exports. The adverse effects of verbal inch and the negative impact on the net openness of the asset -liabilities to achieve the main business goals such as the budget achievement, the predictability of the operation, and the management of investment risks. In addition, enterprises should focus on the development business of the main business, improve financial stability, adapt to the normal state of two -way fluctuations in exchange rates. The "exchange rate risk neutral" principle strictly strictly sets up duration and hedging.

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