The gold price rebounded after two and a half years low, can you copy the bottom?

Zhongxin Jingwei, September 28 (Song Yafen) The US dollar index hit a 20 -year high on the 26th, and the price of gold also hit the lowest price since April 2020. On the 27th, the international spot and futures gold market all rebounded. Has the gold price turning point arrived? Can I copy the bottom?

The suppression of gold prices in the dollar will continue

The decline in this round of gold prices is closely related to the strong dollar. Therefore, experts believe that the risk of decline in gold prices is relatively large in the case of the Fed's monetary policy tightening the expected continuation.

Xu Wenyu, director of macro -strategy research at Huatai Futures Research Institute, analyzed in the interview with China Singapore Jingwei. From the perspective of the year -on -year effect, the inflation of the American CPI (Consumer Price Index) in September is expected to have a relatively obvious year -on -year decline due to the base effect. On the other hand, compared with the US FOMC (Federal Public Marketing Committee) meeting, the source of inflation and disturbance lies in the conflict of Russia and Ukraine. When the regional instability is still continuing, the expectations of inflation to the Fed's monetary policy will also continue Essence Therefore, the nominal interest rate in the future will still be driven up by driving the actual interest rate, which will cause pressure on gold.

Liu Dongbo, an analyst at Guotou Anxin Futures, also held a similar point of view. "Europe is still trapped in the energy crisis. The US economic toughness is stronger than the non -US economy. The overall trend of the US dollar has not changed. It is likely to continue to test the high point in 2002, so the suppression of gold prices will continue."

Liu Dongbo also said that whether the Golden ETF (Transaction Open Index Fund) is held or COMEX (New York Commercial Exchange) net -held position changes, all show that investors are still pessimistic about the prospects of gold prices. After the international gold price fell below the shock platform since April 2020, the key support of $ 1680 was opened, and the space below was opened. The main support level looked around $ 1560, and the bottom position of the $ 1,450 outbreak or the last bottom line.

When is the time to buy gold?

Some analysts believe that if the price of gold falls below $ 1,600/ounce, there may be better buying opportunities. However, Xu Wenyu believes that 1600 US dollars may not be low for gold.

Liu Dongbo also believes that it is not the time to configure gold. Recently, the US dollar has continuously refreshed a new high in the past 20 years, and the yield of US debt in the decade of ten years has approached 4%, which has brought strong suppression to commodities. U.S. economic data will be worried after the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes, whether it is an excellent inflation data, or retail sales, manufacturing PMI (purchasing manager index) or employment all shows that the US economy has a higher tolerance for rising interest rates, support the Fed's continued implementation of tightening policy Essence

Liu Dongbo emphasized that the market is expected to raise interest rates of 125 basis points during the year. The strong stage of the dollar and US debt yields has not yet ended, and the weakness of international gold prices will continue for a period of time, so it is not the time to configure gold. However, as the price of gold falls, the opportunity to buy will gradually approach, and investors can consider making a fixed investment method for gold investment.

What do you think of gold investment value?

With the continuous interest rate hike in the United States, the sound of the US economy will be more and more intense. In this case, what will the investment value of gold changes?

In this regard, Xu Wenyu pointed out that from a global perspective, it is difficult to boost the risks of the reckless globalization at the same time in the century of unchanged. Configuration value. From the opposite side, in this state, the credit system will resist, such as reducing the demand for gold by weakening the trading attributes of gold, which will also suppress the upward elasticity of gold prices.

Liu Dongbo said that as a US dollar credit hedge and risk aversion tool, gold still has strong investment value for a long time. "The performance of gold prices at all stages of the economic cycle is relatively large, and the attractiveness of investors is different. As the market digests the expected expectations of radical interest rate hikes, the substantial negative feedback effect of demand will gradually appear. There is always a day of turning, which will provide a chance to turn over the gold price. "(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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