The exchange rate of the RMB at home and abroad falls below the 7.2 mark, and the hedge fund still dare not add positions as short inch

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter Chen Zhi reported that in the face of the Dien Chinchi US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate inevitably continued to fall.

As of 16:00 on September 28, the exchange rates of the RMB against the US dollar market in the shore market and the overseas market fell below 7.24 and 7.25, respectively, and the lowest value since August 2019.

"Although the RMB exchange rate fell below the 7.2 integer mark, the transaction sentiment in the foreign exchange market was relatively stable." A foreign exchange trader in Hong Kong revealed that on September 28, many companies settled at a high exchange of high exchange through the RMB exchange rate below 7.2, invisible Provide support for the RMB exchange rate valuation, so that the RMB exchange rate will quickly rise from the daily low.

The reporter learned that the current RMB exchange rate fell below 7.2, and there was some connection with the yen exchange rate. Although the Japanese government had previously fallen to the exchange market near the US dollar to the US dollar near the US dollar, as the US dollar index continued to rise, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar fell near 144.7, which caused some overseas investment institutions to see that the Japanese government's intervention market had weakened and turned around and turned to turn. While the US dollar is innovative, there is no difference between short -selling Asian currency.

"In comparison, the yen, which is weaker in economic fundamentals, is still the main short -selling object of overseas investment institutions. The short -selling pressure of the RMB exchange rate is relatively weak." A person in charge of a Hong Kong private equity fund told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.

Nanhua Futures Macro Foreign Exchange Analyst Zhou Yan pointed out that the Central Bank of China had previously decided to increase the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term exchange business from 0 to 20%from September 28. Although this move may not change the current RMB exchange rate trend, a certain certain way The degree of seed can alleviate the risk of depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

Guan Tao, the chief economist of BOC Securities, believes that in the future, the factors that affect the trend of the RMB exchange rate will be long and short, and the exchange rate will continue to show rising and falling, two -way fluctuations, and broad shocks. Relevant departments shall strengthen the monitoring and early warning of cross -border capital flow, and formulate a response plan based on scenario analysis and pressure testing, so as to be prepared. Only by maintaining a smooth operation of the foreign exchange market can we create a better financial environment for the autonomy of the RMB exchange rate policy.

Why dare not add a short position?

The aforementioned foreign exchange trader in Hong Kong believes that the reason why the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar on the 28th fell below the 7.2 integer mark was mainly affected by two major factors. First, as the Fed continued to raise a significant rate of interest rates in November The agency's injects in advance the US dollar index or soaring to 120 lines, which caused the RMB exchange rate to passively fall; second, the Fed's continued sharp interest rate hike expecting to increase the yield of US Treasury bonds overnight overnight to 3.99%, which led to expand the spread of China -US interest spreads to the extension 124 basis points, driving some quantitative investment funds therefore lowered the RMB exchange rate.

"But during the RMB exchange rate below the 7.2 integer mark, the foreign exchange market seemed to be relatively calm, and it seemed that everyone had expected this." He said that the first is that the exchange rate difference between the RMB exchange rate at home and abroad is still kept within 100 basis points, indicating that overseas speculation capital Without a large -scale short -selling offshore RMB exchange rate, it highlights that a series of stable exchange rate measures previously adopted by the People's Bank of China have formed an effective deterrent; the second is that the RMB exchange rate quotation of the offshore long -term foreign exchange market is relatively stable, reflecting that the investment institutions do not think that the renminbi will be separated from separation The U.S. dollar index trend showed an abnormally plummeted trend.

The 21st Century Business Herald was informed that many overseas hedge funds did not significantly increase the short position of RMB because the RMB exchange rate fell below the 7.2 integer mark. Behind this, one is that they believe that China's foreign trade prosperity has a high degree of prosperity, which has led China's capital cross -border flow to continue the balanced and stable trend, resulting in a lower chance of the abnormal decline in the betting rate of the renminbi. Changes and actively adopt a stable exchange rate measures to make them "taboo".

Another important reason why overseas hedge funds have not been significantly increased by the renminbi. They realized that the internationalization process of the RMB was steadily promoted and made the RMB exchange rate more support.

Earlier, the "RMB International Report of 2022" released by the People's Bank of China pointed out that according to incomplete statistics, more than 80 overseas central banks or currency authorities have included RMB in foreign exchange reserves; in the first half of this year, the amount of RMB cross -border payment reached 2.032 trillion yuan Yuan, a year -on -year increase of 15.7%, increased in the total number of domestic and foreign currency cross -border receipts during the same period to 49.1%.

The aforementioned Hong Kong bank foreign exchange traders told reporters that most overseas hedge funds still adopt the arbitrage strategy of selling short -selling short -selling and short -selling sales of offshore RMB. The short -selling returns; otherwise they can only stop leaving the field. This shows that their confidence and confidence in selling short -selling RMB arbitrage are obviously insufficient.

"In fact, more and more overseas hedge funds are worried that the relevant Chinese departments may restart the inverse cycle factors or directly interfere with the exchange market to explode the RMB shorts at a certain exchange rate point," he pointed out.

The latest report of Soochow Securities pointed out that, in the middle and long term, with the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, the domestic economy has grown steadily, and the RMB exchange rate does not have the basis of medium and long -term depreciation, and there is no need to worry too much.

Enterprise Enterprise Righteousness Operation Support Aid Value Value

Although the RMB exchange rate fell below the 7.2 integer mark, the corporate exchange rate operation was relatively stable.

"After the RMB exchange rate fell below 7.2 on the 28th, the export enterprise that chose to settle in the high exchange was increased compared with last week, but this helps boost the smooth fluctuation of the RMB demand and the RMB exchange rate." 21st Century Business Herald reporter. In comparison, due to the influence of the central bank's high -end foreign exchange sales foreign exchange risk reserve rate on September 26, the emergency purchase operation operation of imported enterprises on September 28 decreased significantly. "Clear the problem. He believes that this is closely related to more and more companies in advance in advance. As early as July to August, many import companies, in view of the continuous interest rate hikes and the US dollar index of the Federal Reserve, continued to rise, and lock most of the exchange prices of foreign exchange purchases through long-term foreign exchange swap transactions, leaving only a very small foreign exchange risk exposure The eloquence allowed them to calmly respond to the RMB below 7.2.

At the same time, more and more exporting companies' exchange rate risk neutral awareness is increasing, and no longer deliberately waiting for the RMB exchange rate to fall below a specific point and then settle foreign exchange. "".

"Whether it is 7 or 7.2, more and more foreign trade enterprises have regarded them as an ordinary exchange rate point, which is no longer an important psychological barrier that affects foreign exchange trading emotions. Decreasing will help the foreign exchange market continue to run smoothly. "Said the above -mentioned financial marketing department.

The reporter was informed that more and more foreign trade enterprises are actively promoting the settlement of cross -border trade RMB, and directly avoid the risk of exchange loss caused by exchange rate fluctuations.

"At present, many overseas traders feel that they have risen to hold the RMB because compared with the euro yen British pounds of more than 20%during the year, the RMB declines slightly more than 11%, indicating that the RMB is still strong in non -US major currencies, and overseas traders in overseas traders are still strong and overseas traders You can reserve the risk of depreciation of the RMB barrier to hedge non -US currency. "A director of the Cross -border Business Department of a state -owned bank told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.

- END -