Zhang Wenkui: Balanced economic policy in the "Pedestrian Growth" channel

A few years ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested the possibility of "Growthatrisk (abbreviated as GAR, or" Adventure Growth "). New coronary pneumonia epidemic is popular in the world, and most countries have implemented super loose monetary policies and fiscal policies, thereby making "insurance growth" a real scene. The Chinese economy is no exception.

In the "growth of insurance growth" channel: On the one hand, it still needs to maintain a better economic growth rate. China's per capita GDP has just exceeded 10,000 US dollars, and it must have a certain growth rate; on the other hand Large financial risks and pressures in inflation. This brings great problems to economic policy, and it is particularly important to find the balance of policies.

Zhang Wenkui, deputy director of the Institute of Enterprise Research Center of the State Council's Development Research Center, proposed in the book "Steady Growth: The Basic Chinese Economic Disc" that the global economy and my country's economy have entered the "companion insurance growth" channel. Economic policies need to maintain GDP growth and management Find a difficult and thrilling balance between inflation and finance.

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Economic development enters the "companion insurance growth" channel

In 2017, the IMF proposed a "companion growth" warning worldwide. Some economists have also developed a "accompaniment growth" model. The so -called "growing insurance growth" refers to under the condition that debt accumulation, leverage rising, and the corresponding expansion of asset prices, to maintain a certain economic growth rate, we must take greater financial risks. In other words, you need to dance economic growth in increasingly strong financial risk flames. In 2017, MMT is not very popular, and the firewall between finance and currency is still effective. IMF has built the "companion insurance growth" analysis framework. The extent leaps, and the coordination and linkage between finance and currency has increased significantly, which has promoted the "companion insurance growth" channel.

Since the epidemic of new crown pneumonia, the trend of global debt accumulation is surprising. The global macro leverage ratio was 195%in 2007, and the "financial tsunami" raised it 20 percentage points to 215%. In the past 10 years, the global leverage rate has risen slowly, with an average of about 1 percentage point. In 2020 when the new coronary pneumonia epidemic was outbreak, the global macro leverage ratio increased by about 30 percentage points a year, and rose to a high level of 256%, of which the leverage rate of the public sector reached 99%. In 2021, the rise in inflation actually increased the risk brought by high leverage. It is particularly worrying that the high leverage is accompanied by the high deficit rate. In 2020, the redness rates of the United States, Britain, and France were all over 10%, the euro zone reached 8%, and some emerging economies such as South Africa and Brazil also exceeded 10%. This is an unprecedented wave of deficit.

"Double high", that is, high leverage and high deficit rates are by no means free lunch. Instead, they will pass the cost burden on the society in the form of asset price expansion and traditional inflation, and increase financial fragility and accumulate financial risks. In fact, the latest "Global Financial Stability Report" (GFSR) released by the IMF released in April 2022 analyzed these issues, pointing out that the global economy is facing obvious inflation pressure, and financing costs are also rising. The report also predicts the possibility of rapid interest rates in the next few years, and states that the end of the era of low inflation and low interest rates will not be good news. If the policy has to be turned into such a turning point, changes in financing conditions will give a fragile financial system to strike, and emerging markets need to deal with possible capital outflow risks.

However, the global economy needs to be revived. Not only the developed countries need to digest the economic and social problems that have accumulated with a certain economic growth rate, and boost social confidence and national strength. Developing countries need to eliminate poverty with higher economic growth and achieve prosperity. At present, the global economy has appeared in discussions that the global economy will be trapped in stagnation or even decline. Although this possibility has not been confirmed, it is necessary in any case. The re -reviving growth must be converged on the issue of "double high". There is no doubt that this will push global economic development into the "insurance growth" channel. The geopolitical situation deteriorates and the global supply chain is disturbed, which will undoubtedly exacerbate downward pressure and risks in growth.

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my country's GDP growth and debt growth race

my country's economy is also difficult to be alone, and in fact, it also belongs to the situation of entering the "companion growth" channel. According to the calculation of the central bank, my country's macro leverage ratio was only 143%in 2008, and in 2019 reached more than 250%, with an average growth rate of only a few percentage points per year. During this time, it also experienced a large loose period after the global financial tsunami in 2008. But in 2020, it rose by about 24 percentage points a year, close to 280%. Although the leverage ratio of the public sector is only 46%on the surface, in fact, the 161%leverage ratio of the corporate sector hides many public debt, because many state -owned corporate debt comes from local investment and financing platforms, and they implement government will. According to IMF calculations, the actual deficit rate in my country in 2020 also exceeded 6%. In 2021, my country's macro leverage rate fell to 273%, because the nominal growth rate of GDP at that time was significantly faster than the growth rate of debt. It is expected that this is only a phased phenomenon, and the high probability event is that my country's macro leverage will jump to a 300%step in the next few years.

For an emerging economy, such a huge amount of debt accumulation, especially when the border between public debt and state -owned enterprise debt is not clear, risks are not indifferent. The greater dynamic risk is that the economic growth rate is sluggish. For emerging economies, in the race of economic growth and debt growth, if the former wins the latter, the risk can get a certain degree of digestion, otherwise the opposite will be the opposite. In 1998, my country's total GDP was only nearly 8 trillion yuan, tax revenue just exceeded 900 billion yuan, foreign exchange reserves were 145 billion US dollars, deposit balances were 9.6 trillion yuan, loan balance was 8.7 trillion yuan, and the stock market value was nearly 2 trillion yuan; At that time, the bad debt estimated at the time was more than 10 trillion yuan, of which the amount of debt -to -equity swin was more than 400 billion yuan, and the financial risk was very serious; just 10 years later, in 2008, the total amount of GDP in my country jumped to 3 trillion yuan At the element level, tax revenue jumped to nearly 5.8 trillion yuan, foreign exchange reserves were close to 2 trillion US dollars, the deposit balance was about 48 trillion yuan, and the loan balance reached 32 trillion yuan. In 10 years, the total GDP increased by 275%, tax revenue increased by 540%, foreign exchange reserves increased by 1280%, while deposits and loan balances increased by 400%and 270%, respectively. Because the cake is growing rapidly, the denominator has rapidly increased. In the past, the inventory of 1 trillion yuan of non -performing debt, and the incremental increase in bad debt, it does not constitute much risk. Although in the two or three years after 2008, in order to cope with the global financial tsunami, my country has implemented a relatively radical expansion economic policy. The macro debt ratio and fiscal deficit rate have increased significantly, but because the economic growth rate has maintained a synchronous rising momentum, so The overall risk situation did not significantly deteriorate.

In recent years, my country's GDP growth rate and tax growth have fallen severely, and foreign exchange reserves have basically stable, but the balance of deposit and loan has not increased proportional. In 2016, the total amount of GDP was about 74 trillion yuan, tax revenue was about 13 trillion yuan, foreign exchange reserves just exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, and the balance of deposits and loans was about 156 trillion yuan and 112 trillion yuan. In 2021, The first three were 114 trillion yuan, 17 trillion yuan, and 3.3 trillion US dollars, and the balance of deposits and loans was about 2.39 trillion yuan and 199 trillion yuan. %, 53%, 78%. Obviously, the growth rate of loans in the past five years has significantly exceeded the growth rate of GDP and tax growth. The growth rate of loans in the 10 years from 1998-2008 is basically the same as the GDP growth rate, and the tax growth rate is faster. Needless to say the changes in the growth of foreign exchange reserves. Even if the deposit balance is compared with the loan balance, it can be seen that the growth rate of the loan balance in the past five years is higher than the growth rate of the deposit balance of 25 percentage points. The balance growth rate is 130 percentage points. All these comparisons mean that in the past 5 years, debt growth has far exceeded the growth rate of repayment and interest payment capacity, far lower than the growth rate of capital turnover capabilities. If you consider debts other than the balance of loan, the situation should be more serious. When the speed of big cakes slows down, risks will be significantly exposed.

Needless to say, my country still faces great development tasks and needs to maintain a higher economic growth. my country's per capita GDP jumped to a level of $ 12,000 in 2021, and the entry line from the World Bank's high -income countries has been close at hand. But we must not take it lightly, because the experience of some countries tells us that some major uncertainty may be encountered during this period. Even if there is no growth pressure brought about by recent epidemic prevention control measures, when considering that my country's economy is moving forward in the "insurance growth" channel, it is necessary to realize that it will encounter a huge policy test. In addition, the current international environment has changed a lot, and developed countries such as the United States have also implemented interest rate hikes and shrinkage, which has made the policy tests encountered in my country more severe.

Need to find a balanced economic policy

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my country is still very far from developed countries. Development is the last word, and low -speed growth is the biggest risk. Seeking a better economic growth rate in the "Pedestrian Growth" channel is equivalent to driving on the road with deep grooves and falling rocks on the bottom of the road. Hide the deep ditch and falling stone.这意味着：一方面，我们要寻求与潜在增速大体一致的经济增速，譬如一些机构测算认为，目前大致在6%或稍低一些，所以目前应该努力克服下行压力；另一方面，要Pay close attention to financial risks and inflation risks to prevent the "splint gas" of these two risks. The implementation of such a balanced economic policy is indeed an unprecedented challenge.

Maintaining a good economic growth can not adopt obvious shrinkage policies, but if a typical expansion policy is adopted, it will evolve the "companion insurance" into "danger". This is obviously a problem. Therefore, like driving on the above mountain roads, it is possible to seize the chances of various short -term windows, implement more mobile policies, randomly strain to adjust the throttle and step on the brakes, and seek balance in mobility. In particular, in the non -contracted policy framework, we must strengthen macro -prudential and micro -prudential work. Generally speaking, in the large framework of expansion policies, macro -prudential and micro -prudential work may relax, but these tasks are particularly important in the "insurance growth" channel. There are many large state -owned financial institutions and state -owned enterprises in China, as well as some private enterprises with very complex structures. The transparency is relatively low, so micro -prudential work should keep up, but it cannot hurt the self -operating and self -risk mechanism of the enterprise. Folk innovation vitality and entrepreneur spirit. Whether the policy scale can be accurately grasped to a large extent determined whether the balanced economic policy was successful. Adding some structural functions to the total policy will be beneficial to exploration. Monetary policy is generally a total policy, but in the past ten years, monetary policy has experienced many innovations, some innovation brings negative consequences, and some innovations have positive significance, including policy tools that undertake structural functions. Essence my country has a lot of innovation in this regard, and of course some policy tools are controversial. However, it is possible to further explore the structural functions of monetary policy in the "Pedistful Growth" channel and further explore the structural function of monetary policy, and better play this structural function. Of course, adding structural functions to the total policy can also make the total policy lose equal equality, and even cause excessive and improper intervention in the government. Therefore, the positive effects and negative reactions of such policies should be tracked in a timely manner, and policy content and policy tools should be continuously improved, and such policies can be theoretically summarized. The structural function of fiscal policy is stronger and can be implemented more. Regardless of how the policy tools are innovative, the fiscal policy and monetary policy should have the concept of firewalls, or they cannot change, especially in the era of "insurance growth".

Supply -side relaxation control and improvement of efficiency policies need to be implemented. Such policies can balance inflation pressure and financial risks. Excessive supply side controls are not eliminated, the efficiency of the supply side cannot be improved, and the pressure on currency over issuance and debt accumulation will not be released, and the risks will become greater and greater. my country contains huge folk vitality. The question is how to inspire this vitality as much as possible. There are still many regulations in my country's economic system, the access policy is still too strict, unclear, and discontinuous, and the competition between different ownership enterprises is still unfair; while the government supervision is still strong, and some of them are too wide. Sometimes severe excessive. This suppresses the vitality of the people. At present, the problem of poor supply chain is essentially the problem of too much control and randomness. Even if the problem of poor supply chain is solved, similar problems will be transferred to other fields. Therefore, the policies of supply -side relaxation control and efficiency, as well as policies for relaxation of control and improving efficiency in the whole society, is a long way to go. In the final analysis, we must continue to promote marketization reform. The market -oriented reform of the economic field should be committed to opening access, encouraging fair competition, breaking barriers, and implementing necessary and impartial supervision according to law. The marketization of state -owned enterprises cannot be paused. Increased opening up to the outside world helps to promote this process. The expected guidance policy is also indispensable.

The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2021 pointed out that my country's economic development is facing the pressure of demand shrinkage, supply impact, and expected weakness. Many policy agencies focus on policy attention in the previous two. But at present, it is a serious problem with weakening. Guidance expectations include not only expectations for economic growth, but also expected marketization, rule of law, and internationalization. Good stability expectations can be adjusted to a certain extent to a certain extent. Conversely, no matter how loose policies can stimulate economic growth, it will only make the "accompanying insurance" situation more serious.

Steady growth: China's Basic Economic Dard

Zhang Wenkui

Steady growth is the highlight of the current and future economic work. The state has introduced a policy of stabilizing the economy. It has implemented a series of measures for local conditions, including tax cuts, increasing credit and fees, increasing credit, ensuring the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain, and holding the bottom line of the people's livelihood. Such policy combinations will definitely play a positive effect.

How to implement the policy of stabilizing growth, where are the growth points of high -quality development, what are the policy problems, and what are the new connotations of Liangzhi under the current situation? Zhang Wenkui, deputy director of the Enterprise Research Institute of the State Council's Development Research Center, gathered his research results in this book, sorted out his important opinions on steady growth, and started from the two major themes of development and governance. The significance of the road of development, and how to improve policies and governance to achieve high -quality development, help readers comprehensively and accurately understand stable growth, and grasp the general trend of high -quality development.

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