The latest report of the Bank of China Research Institute: It is expected that the loan interest rate in the fourth quarter is "easy to decrease and difficult to rise"

On September 28, the Bank of China Research Institute released the China Economic and Financial Outlook Report in the fourth quarter of 2022. It is expected that the new credit investment in the fourth quarter will continue to grow steadily. big. However, the epidemic may still interfere with the expectations of economic entities, and then affect the smooth operation of the financial market.

The report judges that the insufficient financing demand for enterprises still continues, which means that the loan interest rate is "easy to decrease and difficult to rise", and the loan interest rate is low.

In terms of bonds, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the real economy may maintain a weak recovery trend, and the bond market yields have insufficient power. From the perspective of policy, it is expected that liquidity will continue to be reasonable and abundant, and the yield of bonds will continue to maintain a low level.

Loan interest rate "easy to drop and difficult to rise"

According to the report analysis, the demand for abundant currency supply in the fourth quarter, and the cost of financing of the real economy will remain low.

In the fourth quarter, although the economy will maintain a recovery, the foundation is not stable, it is expected that the monetary policy will still maintain a loose trend, and the cost of financing will operate at a low level.

First, policy interest rates may remain stable. Under the context of the differential central banks such as Chinese and foreign monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, further interest rate cuts will exacerbate RMB depreciation and capital outflow pressure. It is expected that the possibility of starting interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter is less likely.

Second, the bottom of the currency market interest rate has stabilized. In response to the current liquidity stasis, the People's Bank of China is increasing the return of public market funds, which will drive the currency market interest rates to rise. In July and August, the People's Bank of China had returned a total of 90 billion yuan in public market operations, which promoted the interest rates of DR007 and R007 from the lowest 1.3%and 1.4%of the lowest in early August to about 1.65%and 1.75%, respectively.

Third, the loan interest rate is low. Insufficient corporate financing demand continues, which means that loan interest rates are "easy to decrease and difficult to rise." According to the data of the People's Bank of China, the loan demand index in the second quarter was 56.6%, a significant decrease of 15.7 percentage points compared with the first quarter, especially for small enterprise loan demand indexes decreased greater.

The debt exhibition period can temporarily slow down the pressure of real estate companies

In terms of bonds, the scale of issuance in the fourth quarter was difficult to increase significantly, and the yield of bonds continued to maintain a low level.

The report predicts that in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the operation of the bond market will present the following characteristics:

First, the scale of bond issuance remains stable, and the issuance structure continues to differentiate. In particular, the annual amount of new local government bonds has been basically completed. It is expected that the issuance of local government bonds in the fourth quarter may further decline. Considering that the demand for the real economy financing is limited, the scale of corporate and corporate bond issuance is difficult to expand significantly. However, in the background of capital supplementation pressure, the scale of sub -bond issuance of commercial banks is still expected to remain at a high level.

Second, the yield of the bond market will maintain a low position. From the perspective of economic fundamentals, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the real economy may maintain a weak recovery trend, and the bond market yield is insufficient.

From the perspective of policy, it is expected that liquidity will continue to maintain reasonable and abundant, thereby driving the bond yield to maintain low operation.

From the perspective of capital flow, the Sino -US monetary policy is continuously differentiated, the degree of "inverted" between China and the United States will increase, but the overall scale of foreign debt holdings accounts for a low proportion of the amount of stock bonds. Relatively limited.

Third, it is necessary to pay close attention to the breach of contract for real estate companies. Under the gradual impact of reasonable liquidity and diversified default disposal mechanism, credit risks in the bond market have been effectively controlled, but the risks in the real estate field are still prominent. The debt exhibition period can temporarily alleviate the debt redemption pressure of real estate companies, but it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the recovery of its profitability and debt capacity.

The stock market will continue to show a trend

Multiple factors affect market expectations, and the stock market will continue to show a trend.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there are still multiple disturbance factors in the market. On the whole, it is expected that A shares will show a shock trend.

The factor factors include: First, the uncertainty of the development of the epidemic will still be dragged down on the recovery of the real economy. The foundation of economic recovery is unstable to affect investor confidence and its risk preferences, and then increase the downward pressure on the stock market. The second is that external factors will still disturb A shares operation. Factors such as large fluctuations in commodities and interest rate hikes such as major economies can easily cause over -response market emotional reactions, and then exacerbate A shares shock.

However, there are still some favorable factors in A shares: First, the stable and wide monetary policy will ensure that the liquidity will maintain reasonable and abundant, which is conducive to supporting A shares to strengthen. The second is from the perspective of valuation, the valuation of A shares is at a historical low, and it is generally lower than the overseas market. For example, as of September 23, 2022, the net rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 city was 1.29, while the S & P 500 city net ratio reached 3.72. In particular, there are still opportunities for industries such as new energy vehicles, technology and new materials.

Daily Economic News

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