Medicine: overlooking rebound, people's hearts rise

The Shanghai and Shenzhen cities experienced the increase in the afternoon after the red market narrowed in the morning, and the large consumption ushered in the long -lost rose to lead the market to stabilize the market. The GEM indexes are leading and the first to regain the 10 -day line. The market has risen nearly 4,400 shares, the market sentiment recovers benign. When the index rose in the afternoon, a slight volume was increased.

As of the closing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 1.4%to 3093.86 points, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 1.94%, the GEM index rose 2.22%, and the three major indexes have achieved the best performance since August 11; Risked by 1.77%and 2.36%, respectively; the two cities sold 667.2 billion yuan throughout the day, and the northbound funds gradually entered the market to sweep the goods in the afternoon.

On September 27th, the bottom of the pharmaceutical sector rebounded. After a long and large callback, many pharmaceutical subdivision industry index valuations have been in a historic low position. These segmented industries have long -term prosperity. Short -term catalytic is the consumption recovery after public health prevention and control.

Data source: wind

As a medical sector with the strongest consumption attributes in the pharmaceutical sector, it is highly elastic. Medical includes medical devices and medical services, medical devices and normal medical treatment activities related to medical services. Medical services include medical examinations, ophthalmology, plastic surgery, etc., and have the attributes of consumption upgrade. Essence

Vaccine is a segment of the current segment of the pharmaceutical sector with a low penetration rate and a higher ceiling in the future. Most of my country's second -class seedlings have greatly increased potential compared with foreign countries, such as HPV vaccines, tetravalent influenza vaccines, and 13 -valent pneumoniacs, such as the top ten vaccine penetration rates such as global sales, are still less than 10%. The expansion of the 9 -valent HPV vaccine has greatly improved potential targets.

In addition, the industry imports have large alternative space, and the heavy variety approval continues to grow high. Imported products occupy 42%of my country's vaccine market. The import alternative space is large, and the number of heavy varieties will continue to grow high.

In terms of research and pipeline, domestic HPV vaccines are generally expected to be listed after 2024 and 2025. Among the bacteria vaccine, 13 -valent pneumonia vaccine Kangxino has the fastest progress, and 15 -valent pneumonia vaccine is the fastest. A hundred grams of organisms in shingles vaccine were notified of production approval acceptance in April 2022. It is expected to be approved for listing at the end of 2022. Other varieties such as Kangtai creatures are doubled in 2022, and those who are double -videls and tetravalent vaccines of Zhifei creatures are also expected to be approved in 2023 or 2024.

In innovative drugs and biomedical, CXO occupies a large proportion, and it is also the best -growing pharmaceutical segment section in the past two or three years. Wait for factors to suppress. Through preliminary adjustment, the market's concerns have been fully reflected. The market's early reflection is too pessimistic. For example, the growth rate of investment and financing has declined, but it is a process of "de -pseudo -falsification". Innovation and upgrading brings the rise of pharmaceutical companies' requirements for CXO, and the industry's concentration to the head will become a long -term trend.

In the long run, under the drive of innovation, import alternatives and internationalization are still the long -term development trend of the domestic pharmaceutical industry. After that, the real product -capable product is landing overseas or the opportunity to increase valuations for innovative drugs. In addition, the long -term logic of population aging+consumption upgrade is still there. Investors can continue to pay attention to vaccine ETFs, medical ETFs, innovative drugs in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong ETF, and biomedical ETF.

After the continuous callback, the breeding ETF (156865) also ushered in a rebound, a rebound of 3.26%on September 27. In the early stages, the fourth quarter of pig prices caused by the decline in terminal demand and the fourth quarter brought by the pressure bar. At present, the stock price trend of the listed pig companies is more affixed with the recent futures price. On the one hand, the rebound on September 27 is the coming season, and on the other hand, the market is concerned about the improvement of marginal improvement or has been digested by the market in the early stage.

Data source: wind

In September, the relevant departments continued to put three batches of frozen meat, and the short -term emotional fluctuations have responded to the stock price. In September, the supply of pigs was still disturbed by the storage policy. Although the volume of storage was not large, the impact of policy signals and market sentiment was still obvious.

In the early stage of the market, the secondary fattening was enthusiastic, and the market concerned may limit the height of pig prices at the end of the year. At present, fattening is gradually approaching the end of the end, affecting weakening. The proportion of the secondary weight of the secondary weight of some farms increased, but the proportion of the pork columns in the market, but the main pig source in the market is still a normal weight -benchmark pig, and the market has a strong expectation of the market before the National Day. Later, the demand for big pigs increased.

Recently, the major market differences have evolved in the future pig cycle. Some investors are more pessimistic about pig prices at the end of the year. They are worried that the secondary fertilizer and seasonal fence weight will cause the supply back to move back. It is also reflected.

In addition, the slaughter volume of the slaughter enterprises has continued to decline, and the performance of the terminal demand is still sluggish. In August, the supply of pigs grew clearly year -on -year, but the biggest variable was the fluctuation of demand. Judging from the daily slaughter volume and frozen product inventory data, the current demand is extremely sluggish, and the absolute price is already 20+ yuan/kg. The spot price must continue to rise and need to support the demand.

Data: Pig Futures Contract Price, Source Wind

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