Cotton prices hit a two -year low!The inventory of American clothing dealers is innovative, and the blooming factories are cautious to wait and see, and there may still be room for decline in the market outlook

China Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Ye Qing Beijing report

Recently, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures price has encountered two daily limit.

On September 23, the price of cotton futures listed on the institute fell more than 4.14%and touched the daily limit. On September 26, the daily limit was touched on September 26. In the end, it closed at a 4.55%decline and received 88.33 cents/pounds on that day.

At the same time, the domestic cotton futures market has continued to weaken recently.

On September 27th, Beijing time, Zheng Mian's main 2301 contract price closed at 13450 yuan/ton, and the future price fell 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, a new low in two years. What happened behind?

American wholesalers textile and clothing inventory innovative high

People who do futures transactions have a dream of a cotton bull market. During the early cotton bull market, the story of traders became rich. Lin Guangmao is the protagonist of one of the stories. It is rumored that he has a strong investment style and is good at full warehouse operations. In 2010, he made 13 billion cotton to make 13 billion cotton. In 2011, he made 700 million cotton. The title.

There are cases of "Cotton King". When the price of cotton fell to a low price, or when it rose to a high level, investors "could not bear loneliness". However, the cotton market in 2022 has not changed as expected.

In the second quarter of this year, the drought in the main producing area of ​​the cotton continued to increase, which caused the market to worry about the tight cotton supply of cotton in the world. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton climbed from 90 cents/pound to nearly 133.79 cents/pound, driving domestic cotton upward.

However, recently, the cotton production area has ushered in a large amount of rainfall, and the drought has been significantly relieved, which has also reduced the enthusiasm of the market hype. In addition, there are other factors that disturb the cotton market.

CITIC Futures Analyst Wu Jingwen told a reporter from Huaxia Times that although American cotton New Year is expected to be reduced, global cotton production increases and demand declines, and the current inventory is expected to increase year -on -year. In addition, the current international cotton price valuation is still relatively high, overseas overseas, overseas The profit of the spinning profit of the yarn factory has led to a decline in the rate of starting rate of the yarn factory.

On September 26, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced in the weekly crop growth report that as of the week of September 25, 2022, the excellent growth rate of cotton growth in the United States was 31%, the previous week was 33%, and the same period last year was 65. %. In the week, the US cotton harvesting rate was 15%, 11%in the previous week, 11%in the same period last year, and the average five -year value was 14%. In the week, the American cotton bell rate was 67%, the previous week was 59%, the same period last year was 58%, and the average value of five years was 62%.

Lian Chao, the co -dean of the Chuangyuan Futures Research Institute, told the reporter of the Huaxia Times that the main reason for the decline in the cotton cotton is that the early hype of the drought in the early stage caused the valuation of cotton prices to be too high. The demand and purchasing volume of daily necessities decreased simultaneously. The sales performance of the cotton visa was average. The export shipments were slow, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and the pressure on the selling of commodities increased, making cotton prices under pressure.

"From the perspective of the supply side, although the September report released by USAD's September report is still as high as 43%, the area of ​​planting and harvesting has increased, the output and the final inventory are raised. 67%, it can be said that the output has been basically finalized, the probability of reduction in the later period is not large, and the overall supply is more abundant. "Lian Chao said.

At the same time, according to data from Chuangyuan Futures, as of last week, India's national planting area reached 12.71 million hectares, an increase of 8%year -on -year, and the output expected to be optimistic under large -scale expansion was more optimistic. Brazil and Australian cotton have been listed and traded. Due to the appropriate weather, production is increased year -on -year. From the perspective of demand, the demand for textiles and clothing in Europe and the United States is weak, the profit of spinning in India and Southeast Asia is losing money, China is light, and the global consumption is obvious.

In addition, Lian Chao also pointed out that in July, the US wholesalers textile and apparel inventory of US $ 40.6 billion, an increase of 72%year -on -year, a historical high, continuing the trend of accumulated libraries since August last year; Obviously declined, the inflection point appeared. In Europe, the demand for textile clothing under energy crisis and high inflation has declined, and import orders decreased by 15%-20%compared with previous years. The spinning factory in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam has continued to decline to the low level under high cost and long -term loss. The consumption season is not strong, and the market outlook is more pessimistic.

Wu Jingwen also told the reporter of "Huaxia Times" that according to the USDA's September report period, the global cotton output of 22/23 is expected to increase by 600,000 tons year -on -year, consumption fell 180,000 tons year -on -year, and the current inventory decreased by 10,000 tons. 0.46%. However, in the later period, the final inventory and inventory consumption ratio continued to increase.

The blooming factory is cautious and the institution predicts the trend of the market outlook

Since entering late September, Xinjiang cotton farmers have been preparing for the large -scale picking of cotton. Due to the improvement of Xinjiang agricultural mechanization in recent years, the picking of cotton in Xinjiang is mainly based on machine cotton. A cotton trader in Xinjiang said that the current new cotton in the mainland produced area has been listed and traded, and the northern Xinjiang region has begun large -scale machinery. Picking in large areas.

Due to the impact of the epidemic in some areas, the acquisition time of seed cotton is delayed compared to previous years. It is expected that the scale will be concentrated in mid -October. Lian Chao also told reporters that the cotton picking cycle is about one month, and the whole Xinjiang starts from the end of September to the beginning of November. Taking 2021 as an example, the northern Xinjiang machine mining rate reached 90%, and the South Xinjiang machine mining rate was about 80%. The Yellow River and the Yangtze River areas are still dominated by hand due to small planting scale and scattered distribution.

"However, according to our survey, there are currently large differences between the expected price of cotton farmers and the price of the greening plant. Due to the rise in the cost of fertilizer and rent this year, the cost of planting has increased. On the left and right, the rent cost is 1200 yuan/mu, and the total cost is 3,000-3200 yuan/mu. At present, most of the cotton areas in northern Xinjiang are 400 kilograms and the southern Xinjiang is about 360 kg. Around KG, the expected price of cotton farmers is 7.5 yuan/kg. "Lian Chao said.

Lian Chao said, but the blooming factory experienced the loss of last year, which was limited by capital pressure and set of insurance demand. The purchase intention price was 5-6 yuan/kg. The purchase price game. If cotton farmers have been priced at the price of cotton purchases or low -cost acquisitions of cotton acquisitions, and the increase in profit margins will be expanded again, it will inevitably bring rising seed cotton prices. Therefore, the final result still needs to be paid attention to.

According to a report released by Guangfa Futures, on September 26, the average price of 3128 sesame cotton nationwide was 15,817 yuan/ton, a down 60 yuan/ton; 305 yuan/ton; spinning profit is 2046.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 239 yuan/ton, the main force of cotton fluctuates at a low level, and the merchants wait and see their emotions. For positive.

Regarding the later price trend, Lian Chao said that the main factors that affect cotton prices in China are still the purchase price of the scale. From the fundamental perspective, the current domestic consumption season, but the demand is limited, and the overall is weaker than in previous years; the inventory of the old cotton knot is higher, and the new cotton has increased production. In the later period of the domestic epidemic and economic disadvantaged For a long time, the purchase of the processing costs of the new cotton has low enthusiasm for the acquisition of the processing costs and a strong willingness to volume.

Wu Jingwen also said that cotton demand has been greatly affected by economic growth. Due to the slowdown of global economic growth this year, cotton demand has shrunk. The highest level is evident. In the fourth quarter, cotton prices may still have downside risks, new year production increase and high current inventory. Although the demand enters the stage of peak season, it is difficult to enemy reality pressure. The purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be low, or the cotton price is declining.

Editor -in -chief: Ma Xiao Chao Editor: Xia Shencha

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