Summary: The Federal Reserve "strong shrinkage" amplifies the risk of global economic recession

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 27: The Federal Reserve "strong shrinkage" amplify the risk of global economic recession

Xinhua News Agency reporter

Affected by the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve Committee, the international financial market has fluctuated violently in the past few days. On the 26th, the US dollar rose sharply to other currency exchange rates, and the major stock indexes and energy prices fell significantly. Analysts pointed out that the Fed's "strong contraction" policy has intensified the global financial market fluctuations and enlarged the risk of global economic recession.

On the same day, the US dollar index of US dollars rose 0.81%of the US dollar index. The British exchange rate on the US dollar fell to nearly 1 to 1.03 in the Asian morning trading, setting the lowest level since the British currency adopted by the British currency in 1971. The Australian dollar exchange rate against the US dollar hit a new low of more than two years. The exchange rate of Brazil to the US dollar has fallen by 2%, refreshing the lowest point in the past two months.

Affected by the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, the price of gold fell on the same day. The most active December gold price price of the New York Commodity Exchange's gold futures market fell 22.2 US dollars on the 26th compared to the previous trading day, and closed at $ 1633.4 per ounce, a decline of 1.34%.

International oil prices also fell significantly on the same day. The price of light crude oil futures delivered in November of the New York Commodity Exchange fell 2.03 US dollars, closed at $ 76.71 per barrel, and a decrease of 2.58%. 84.06 US dollars, a decline of 2.43%.

The New York stock market has fallen for the fifth consecutive trading day. On the same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the 500 stock indexes of the Standard Pur had a decline of more than 1%. The S & P 500 Index Eleven Big segments rose and rose, and the real estate sector and the energy sector led a decline with 2.63%and 2.57%, respectively.

"The financial market is surrendering ..." In the face of the collective diving of the three major stock indexes in the New York stock market, the "market observation" of the US financial news website. Analysts of Montreal Bank Capital Market Company, Canada, Michael Gregari and Salgerieri said that the Fed's radical interest rate hike first "stepped on the brakes" in the financial market.

The Fed's radical interest rate hikes exacerbated the market's concerns about global economic prospects. The New York Times said that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes caused inflation to increase rapidly, and the scale of debt continued to expand, increasing the risk of severe recession of the global economy. In the underdeveloped African region, the strengthening of the US dollar has led to severe dependence on imported countries such as food, fuel, and drugs to fall into crisis.

Bloomberg recently pointed out in an article entitled "The United States is exporting inflation, and the Fed's interest rate hike will make the situation worse" that the United States has imported a large number of global goods and super firm US dollars to output its problem, that is, inflation, that is, inflation Essence This causes trouble to other parts of the world.

Under the influence of the Fed's "strong shrinkage" policy, many central banks, including the European Central Bank, were forced to raise interest rates for the consideration of curbing inflation and stable local currency exchange rates. The World Bank warns that global interest rate hikes will push the global economy to decline, and developing countries will face a series of financial crisis and "lasting damage".

The report released by the World Bank on the 27th predicts that the economic growth rate of East Asia and the Pacific this year will slow from 7.2%last year to 3.2%. The United Nations Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Commission issued a report at the end of August. It is expected that the economic growth of the Lajia region this year is expected to grow by 2.7%, which is far lower than the economic growth rate of 6.5%last year.

International rating agencies S & P on the 26th will greatly reduce economic growth in 2023 from 2.1%to 0.1%, and believes that the economic growth of the entire euro zone will slow down.

Eswal Plazad, a professor of economics at Cornell University, said the Fed's policy has led to a "must lose" in other parts of the world.

The model of the United States Neck Davis Research Company evaluated the possibility of global economic recession show that the possibility of recession has reached 98%, which triggered the "serious" recession signal, and the selling pressure on the global stock market has continued to increase.

[Editor in charge: Shi Ge]

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