The price of gold is new and a half years, and the focus is on $ 1,600

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The Federal Reserve raised the international gold price as scheduled and continued to undergo pressure

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On September 19, the international gold price continued to weaken and refreshed the lowest two and a half years. On September 19th, the international gold price was reported at 1675.47 US dollars/ounces at the beginning of the week. The highest price of the international gold in the middle of the week was US $ 1688.05/ounce, with the lowest price of $ 1638.9/ounce, and finally closed at $ 1643.6/ounce. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes raised interest rates in September. The global central bank simultaneously tightened monetary policy and eliminating the market's optimism is the main factor for international gold prices.

On September 22, the Federal Reserve's September Intersection Conference continued to release the eagle signal to the market. At the meeting, Fed Chairman Powell once again emphasized the necessity of curbing inflation. He said that interest rates, slower economic, and weakening of the labor market are not as good as restoration of price stability. The Fed will strive to achieve a 2%inflation rate. In addition to increasing interest rates, the Fed will also achieve the above goals by continuing to shrink the table. The resolution of the meeting is almost consistent with the content of July, which only increases the fact that the Fed has further acknowledged the fact that the recent slowdown in US economic growth has been added.

In terms of economic prediction, the Federal Reserve has a long -term economic forecast for multiple dimensions as in June, including maintaining the medium value of a forecast of 2.5%for long -term federal fund interest rates, maintaining the medium value of 4%of the long -term unemployment rate. The long -term actual domestic production value increased by 1.8%of the forecast medium value and maintained the forecast medium value of 2%of the inflation of the price index of personal consumption expenditure. However, the Fed's prediction of short -term data has changed greater from June. The main manifestations of raising short -term unemployment rates and inflation predictions, at the same time, the prediction of economic growth. Specifically, the Fed will reduce the medium value of US economic growth from 2022 to 2024 from 1.7%, 1.7%, 1.9%to 0.2%, 1.2%, and 1.7%, all of which are less than 1.8%of long -term economic growth forecast. The core consumption price index raised from 4.3%, 2.7%, and 2.3%to 4.5%, 3.1%, and 2.3%, which means The inflation rate is adjusted to policy goals, while structural inflation pressure has risen, which is mainly reflected in the labor market.

When asked if the Fed raised the unemployment rate in 2023 to 4.4%, it means that when the US economy will enter a decline, Powell said that the current economic situation is different from the previous, and the vacancy of the position is high, and the US economy can tolerate a higher unemployment rate. It is not difficult to see from Powell's speech that the supply and demand of the US labor market may have changed significantly. According to the data of the past few months, the author believes that the U.S. unemployment rate has maintained a strong might be related to the lack of labor supply caused by the new crown.

Due to the above factors, Powell also said that the actual policy interest rate is detached from negative value to lower the inflation, which requires the entire actual interest rate curve to maintain a positive value. Therefore, the Fed's federal fund interest rate target range from 2022 to 2024 raised from 3.4%, 3.8%, 3.4%to 4.4%, 4.6%, and 3.9%. Although the nominal interest rate is raised, the medium value of the actual interest rate forecast after adjustment is -1%, 1.1%, and 1.1%, respectively, and the actual interest rate calculated based on the forecast of June is -0.9%, 1.1% 1.2%, which means that the Fed's policy response has only adjusted the level of inflation, and its monetary policy rhythm has not been more eagle than June.

▲ Federal Reserve's September Best Meeting Meeting Gold Stepping down downward

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It is critical

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According to the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, whether the 4.5%terminal interest rate will become the end of this round of interest rate hikes? At present, there are still great uncertainty. First, the overall slowdown of the US labor market has slowed down, but the labor supply gap brought by the new championship sequelae is still difficult to appet on the short term, and economic activities will take longer to achieve a new balance. Under the new balance, the continuous tension of labor supply means that the inflation level in the state of economic balance may be higher than the Fed's 2.3%prediction. Then the 4.5%terminal interest rate is obviously unable to reach the Fed to control the inflation rate to 2%.

The second is that the global supply side impact is also intensified. Affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the competitive interest rate hikes adopted by the global central bank to prevent input inflation may lead to further decline in global production capacity supply and damage to the labor market. Press. Therefore, in the middle period, the author believes that the end point of the Federal Reserve's round of interest rate hike is too optimistic. Just as the Fed needs to adjust the response strategy according to data, the market also needs to pay more attention to the risk of the front -end of the yield curve.

After the September interest rate meeting, the international gold price oscillation increased due to the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate policy. In order to delay the devaluation of the yen, the Japanese government once intervened in the exchange market to promote market risk appetite. However, due to the market's concerns about the shrinkage of the global central bank's monetary policy, the international gold price fell again and refreshed the two and a half years to a new low, showing that the upward power of gold prices was weak.

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