The Development and Reform Commission shot again!Well -known analysts speak: Reversed!

Profile reporter Luo Wu

In order to ensure the supply and prices of the festivals such as the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day, the price of the festivals in the festival, in September, the country and the regions simultaneously launched the government pork reserves and launching work. This week, the fourth batch of central pork reserves will be completed this week.

After opening this morning, the price of pig futures fluctuated and rose after the price was low. In terms of specific stocks, the Great Beinong, Ainon Biological, and Superstar farmers and animal husbandry rose slightly.

From the perspective of the sector index, since August 29, the main contract of pig futures 2301 has been in a downward channel, and has fallen sharply in the past week. During the same period, Tongdai Pork Stock Index (880936) also declined all the way, down 16.8%. After September 5, the central pork reserve was about to be released, it accelerated its decline.

According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the weekly weekly week, the average price of lean meat retail prices in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 30%from the same period last year. The excessive increase of the secondary warning range determined by the Stable Program.

According to the plan, the state will put in the fourth batch of central pork reserves this year this year, and guide localities to link local governments to pork reserve. Earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission had completed three batches of central pork reserves on September 8, September 18, and September 23.

The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes that at present, domestic pig production capacity is generally reasonable and abundant, and the amount of sow, new piglets, and fattening pigs can be increased. The price of pigs is at a high level of history and does not have the foundation of continuously rising. In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to put the central pork reserve with relevant departments in conjunction with the market situation. If necessary, further increase the investment and promote the steady operation of the pig market.

In the report released by the Tianfeng Securities Agricultural Research Team on September 25, although it is currently expected to be pessimistic, this cannot change the logic of the pork rose cycle.

On the one hand, as the national weather turns cool and overlapping the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, the industry pressure fences and secondary fertilizer are enthusiastic, and the industry pigs will continue to rise. Secondary fertilizer will cause some pork supply to move backwards. Pork supply in the fourth quarter increased expectations.

On the other hand, the official regulation of pig prices in the near future is obvious. In the fourth quarter, the increase in the predicted overlay policy to vigorously regulate pig prices, the market's pessimistic expectations for pork prices in the market outlook are spreading. Futures and spot showed a significant departure. The main contract LH2301 contract declined sharply last week.

In Wu Li's view, the pig cycle has reversed and is still in the early days of the upward cycle. With the marginalization of the quantity of the column last year, the pressure on the supply of pigs in the future is expected to improve month by month. In terms of demand, with factors such as cold weather and increased holidays, the demand will improve seasonality.

In the case of weakening demand, the pig price center may continue to rise. At present, under the expected rise of pig prices, the average profit of pig companies' profit and valuation space will be opened.

Wu Li believes that in the middle and long term, the current production capacity increase is limited. Corresponding to the price of pigs next year or continuous high, the value of the pig section is prominent!

Corresponding to the estimated quantity of the 2023, from the data as of September 25, the current average market value of listed companies, among which Makiyuan shares are 4500-5000 yuan/head; Right and right; Aoon Biological, Xinwufeng, Daipinnong 2000-2500 yuan/head; New Hope, Tangshen, Tianbang Food, Jinxinnong 1500-2000 yuan/head; Tiankang Biotechnology and Zhengbang Technology are less than 1,500 yuan/ The average market value of multiple stocks still has a significant room for market value; from the perspective of a net rate of net rate, most companies are also in the historical range.

Chen Jia, chief analyst of Changjiang Securities Agriculture, believes that the core variable that affects the trend of the pig cycle is lies in sow production capacity. The most authentic indicator of monitoring sow production capacity is the price of sow. It has not changed.

In Chen Jia's view, the core of the influencing trend of pig cycle is the industry's capacity, and the price of sow prices that can most truly reflect the production capacity of the industry are still lying on the bottom.

Historically, the cyclical trend is accompanied by sow prices soaring. At the upsurge of pig prices in 2015-2016, the price of binary sow rose 56%. From the 2019 to 2020, the price of binary sows increased by 222%. In this round of cycle, in the context of the price increase of pigs, sow prices have increased by only 9%since March, and they are still being adjusted recently, and the enthusiasm of the industry's supplementary column is low.

According to the industrial level, the enthusiasm of sow filling columns is not highly related to the three elements:

(1) In the past two years, there have been two consecutive years of pig price volatility for two consecutive years. At the same time, with the doubts of the data distortion of the Ministry of Agriculture, the industry has greatly increased the predictability of pig prices in the mid -term;

(2) The state has always emphasized that the rise in pig prices does not have sustainability, and a certain extent will affect the industrial supplement;

(3) After the real recovery of the cash flow of the breeding industry, it takes four quarters.

Chen Jia believes that the secondary fattening of the industry in the 4th quarter is the norm, and due to the production cycle (generally postponed 2-3 months), it will only affect the short-term price rhythm. In historyIt does not affect.And because the end of the year is usually the peak consumption season, the actual influence on pig prices is expected to be relatively limited.Chen Jia pointed out that most of the pork companies after adjustment are at the bottom level.The average market value of the leading company Muyuan shares is only 5118 yuan, which is close to the bottom in August last year, and the number of historical parties is 25%.With the performance release period in the third quarter, the relative advantages of breeding stocks have obvious advantages.

Sudden!Just now, the stock market in this country has plummeted and dives sharply by 4%!The central bank is heavy, and the A -share semiconductor and medicine sector counterattack!Another 100 billion big white horse plummeted

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