The foreign exchange risk reserve rate of the central bank's remote exchange sales business is 20%

On September 26, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") released news that it was expected to stabilize the foreign exchange market and strengthen macro -prudential management. The reserve ratio is raised from 0 to 20%.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous interest rate hikes of the United States, the US dollar index has continued to strengthen, and non -US dollar currencies, including RMB, have depreciated to varying degrees. According to Wind data, as of September 23, the US dollar index has risen more than 18%since this year. Among them, on September 23, the US dollar index broke the 113 mark, a new high since January 2002.

Pang Ye, chief economist and director of research department of the Digang Langli Land China, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the central bank adopted this inverse cycle regulatory tool for raising the foreign exchange risk reserve rate The purpose of prudent management is to increase the cost of funds engaged in related businesses and the cost of purchasing the US dollar in the long -term purchase of the relevant business, reducing non -real needs such as arbitrage demand in long -term foreign exchange purchase demand, restricting irrational behaviors in the long -term foreign exchange market, suppressing inhibitory Excessive fluctuations and unilateral changes in the foreign exchange market are conducive to the two -way fluctuations of the RMB to the US dollar at a reasonable and balanced level.

At 9:16 on September 26th, the central bank announced that the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business increased from 0 to 20%. Return to 7.1357.

Before this shot, the central bank announced on September 5 that the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be reduced by 2 percentage points from September 15. Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing told the Securities Daily that this means that the policy has begun to release a stable exchange rate signal. Considering that the current RMB exchange rate has not depreciated from the trend of the US dollar, and the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business is ahead of the preservation, it aims to further stabilize the expectations of the exchange market.

Pang Yan said that the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate is more passive depreciation of the compared to the US dollar in the background of the US dollar index recently. In the short term, if the Fed continues to take a radical interest rate hike in the eagle position, the difference between China and the United States may continue to increase, and the risk of decline in other major economies in the world and high inflation pressure. In status, the RMB exchange rate is still possible.

Wang Qing predicts that in the next step, if the RMB exchange rate is abnormally fluctuated from the trend of the US dollar index, in addition to lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and increase the foreign exchange risk reserve rate, the central bank can also adopt a restarting counter -cycle factor and increase the offshore market central central central government. Measures such as the scale of ticket issuance and strengthening cross -border fund liquidity management. In addition to the above specific measures, the regulatory level can further strengthen market communication, guide market expectations, and prevent the "herd effect" caused by the cyclical behavior of the foreign exchange market.

"Although the RMB exchange rate on the US dollar still has a passive depreciation at the end of the year, this does not mean that the RMB is in substantial weakness, or the risk of exchange rate risks is heating up. One of the signs is that the three major RMB exchange rate index will remain basically stable." This also means that the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in the short term will not form a constraint on the flexible adjustment of domestic macro policies. The measures of stable growth will also be introduced in a timely manner.

(Editor in charge: Wang Qingyu)

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