"Slow Fish" BYD, how to catch up with Tesla?

Source: faction finance

Text: Editor Wang Feiyi: Edit

BYD's sales and market value continued to explode this summer.

By June 22, BYD had stayed steadily for a full 12 days in the trillion market value. Two days before the market value officially exceeded trillion, BYD held a 2021 shareholders' meeting. Hundreds of square meters of conference rooms were virtual. Some shareholders could only stand on a hearing. At the meeting, BYD announced that the amount was not large. The repurchase plan.

Cooking oil, this news, with Tesla, caused BYD to react in the capital market. The market value directly rushed trillion.

In fact, the continuous rise of BYD's market value has already been revealed. Since the Spring Festival, under the major adverse effects of the epidemic, BYD sales have not increased, allowing investors to re -understand BYD's vertical integration. At the same time, sales volume The continuous popularity also allowed the outside world to see BYD Ping's future potential for fuel vehicles.

But the trillion market value is still not BYD's complete body, especially in the face of Tesla, which has a market value of 4 times, BYD still has considerable room for growth. However, it has been declared that Tesla BYD has been built in minutes, and it is far from being surpassed by Tesla, especially in terms of intelligence. This is a short board that BYD has to recognize.

01 BYD's second peak

From the acquisition of Qinchuan Automobile in 2003, BYD's admission to the market has reached the 20th year, and BYD has experienced two peaks in 20 years.

The most stable, and also the best thing for Wang Chuanfu, the second peak that is now experiencing. According to the May new car insurance registration data cited by Jelan Road, the top five domestic pure electric models (excluding mini -cars) in May, except for Nezha V, a fourth, four are BYD; hybrid models (hybrid models (hybrid models (hybrid models (hybrid models (hybrid models ( In terms of extension models), four of the top five of the sales volume are BYD. Only the ideal ONE ranks second, and there is also a sixth Song Pro DM-I ranked sixth.

In fact, BYD has long been used to nature. Throughout 2021, BYD's sales were hung all the way. New energy passenger cars sold 593,745 units a year, an increase of 232%year -on -year, and the market share rose 20%.

In the face of such achievements, Wang Chuanfu, who is addicted to satellite addiction, naturally will not let go of the opportunity to "bragging". "Conservative estimation, BYD's orders will reach 1.5 million units this year. . "At the end of March at an investor exchange meeting, it revealed.

It can be seen that in Wang Chuanfu's eyes, user needs and epidemic are no longer a problem. The decisive factor of BYD sales is the supply chain, which is precisely the largest advantage of BYD in the automotive industry for 20 years. This advantage has helped BYD cars to achieve cold start and created two peaks of BYD Automobile.

At a seminar in 2010, Buffett revealed that Munger persuaded him to make BYD in 2008: "The first Munger said that if you don't buy it, you will miss Henry Ford. Missing Edison, the third Munger said you would miss Bill Gates. " This "brainwashing" finally made Buffett's heavy position BYD 10%.

Now it seems that the second analogy refers to Wang Chuanfu's "technical madman". The third time refers to the investment potential of Wang Chuanfu and BYD. For the first time, it was true that Wang Chuanfu would bring changes to the automotive industry like Henry Ford.

Judging from the situation at the time, BYD did explore his car dream with the most traditional, Ford -style vertical integration method, but as to whether he could change the automotive industry, Wang Chuanfu himself might not have to bottom out.

At the beginning of entrepreneurship, every time BYD enters a technology -intensive industry, it will decompose the automated production line into an artificially completed process, and then rely on self -developed semi -automated equipment and domestic cheap labor to minimize costs, defeat the cost -effective ratio, and defeat the cost -effective performance. opponent.

Under this model, the BYD battery's fixed assets invest in 1/10 of Japanese opponents such as Sanyo and Toshiba, and the price is less than 40%. It has obtained orders from large companies such as Motorola and Nokia by cost performance. In 2003, BYD's nickel -cadmium batteries, nickel -metal hydride batteries, and lithium batteries ranked first, second and third in the world.

This made Wang Chuanfu's self -confidence began to swell. He believes that "all technical patents are paper tigers", "I don't buy it by myself". Therefore, he used the same routine on the car.

By 2010, BYD's supporting factories had expanded to hundreds of. Except for glass and tires, car parts were almost produced and sold, including paint, and even advertising was designed by itself.

Five years ago, BYD relying on the low -cost advantage brought by this system, it launched the first reverse R & D model Flael, followed by the noisy F3 and F6, especially F3. This was the fastest at that time. It has exceeded the domestic models that exceed the 100,000 sales mark and have continued to become BYD's sales for many years.

Since then, BYD's sales have reached a new high. In 2006, 60,000 vehicles were sold, 100,000 vehicles in 2007, 171,000 units in 2008, and 448,000 units in 2009. In 2010, BYD sold 520,000 cars. This is BYD's first peak. At this time, BYD ushered in Buffett's investment, and Wang Chuanfu became the richest man in China. However, after the peak, it was a long platform period. BYD was buried in new energy models in 2011 and introduced through the national new energy subsidy policy to slowly climb the transformation. Beginning in 2013, BYD's car sales have re-stated the 500,000 mark, but until 2018 have not exceeded the sales record in 2010, sales have always fluctuated between 400,000 and 500,000.

With Tesla's introduction and the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies, BYD finally rely on technological breakthroughs, and the advantages of vertical integrated industries that do not seek people, began to emerge during the epidemic, and broke through the sales that he set 11 years ago in 2021 to break through the sales of 11 years ago. The record also opened the second peak of the car career.

In the first half of 2022, BYD's sales were even more hung on Tesla. Data show that as of January to May of 2022, BYD's cumulative sales have exceeded 500,000 units, an increase of 3.5 times year-on-year, leading the second Tesla 289,000 units.

02 From closed to open

Wang Chuanfu, who was in full swing, confidently threatened in 2013 that "Tesla can be created in minutes." In this regard, Musk joked: "Have you ever seen BYD's car? I think it is not good enough from the product level. "The two people's needle tipped against Mai Mang and did not give up.

In the construction of a car, BYD has a cost advantage. The vertical integration model has laid a solid foundation for BYD in technology. For example, BYD launched the first generation of DM models -F3DM models in 2008, and then became a global company to master the three -electric system of electric vehicles and developed a shocking blade battery ... In the era when the industrial chain is unable to talk about, BYD's vertical integrated industrial system is the largest foundation that supports it to "make Tesla in minutes."

But at that time, BYD was obviously a little confident, and the vertical integration model had reached the time when it had to make adjustments. When it was called the board with Tesla, BYD had just experienced the plunge of sales and profits, which was considered to be the side effects of its excessive vertical integration system. According to the later summary, BYD appeared "heavy assets and anti -risk risks. Weak ability, mediocre organization ", and even corruption.

At that time, in order to create a "photovoltaic+energy storage+electric vehicle" carriage, BYD opened the crazy expansion mode. The total number of employees has increased from 97,000 in 2009 to 183,000 the following year, and its business department is as many as 19 This is complicated, the organization is bloated, and the asset -liability ratio has also risen from 52.9%to 60.1%in 2010. In this situation, BYD's car sales and net profit have fallen, and dealers have retired on a large scale. Net profit plunged from 4.08 billion yuan in 2009 to 210 million in 2012.

Therefore, in 2012, Wang Chuanfu had to publicly admit his mistakes in the media: "In the past, we pursued the number and scale expansion of the number and scale, and ignored the improvement of brand quality. We made mistakes in three aspects: distribution networks, media relations and quality issues."

In order to correct the error and change the too conservative vertical integration system, BYD has promoted the "corporate company" from around 2012 to shut down some unprepared business, such as molds, rubber and coatings, etc.; Abandoning the Sea Sea Sea The tactical semi -automatic production line began to purchase advanced equipment on a large scale. At the same time, it introduced international suppliers and procure key parts. BYD's self -control rate of parts was reduced from 80%to about 50%, close to the domestic average.

However, this change can only be regarded as a small repairs and small supplements, and failed to fundamentally change BYD's closed state. At the end of 2016, Wang Chuanfu asked all its business units to find out the external supply chain resources, and then compared with the internal. Even Wang Chuanfu directly stipulated the external supporting rate of some models, such as more than 50%of pure electric vehicles, and the price can be increased to 75%.

By 2020, BYD officially launched the "Ferdie" to establish five independent component companies.

It may be that it is not enough to make only money for parts. Wang Chuanfu pushed BYD to a more open level -launching the D ++ platform -the goal is to unify the rivers and lakes and become Android in the smart car industry. In 2018, Wang Chuanfu claimed to open 341 sensors and 66 control power, which can allow autonomous driving companies, Internet factories, online car platforms, and individual developers to have room. To this end, Wang Chuanfu specially invited 360 360 The founder Zhou Hongyi and the former Baidu president Zhang Yaqin set the platform.

In this regard, Wang Chuanfu once said: "A small step of BYD will be a big step in changing the automotive industry." Compared with Wang Chuanfu's too optimistic, Zhou Hongyi directly asked: "Mr. Wang, are you crazy?" In the year, BYD's D ++ platform has long been mentioned.

Fortunately, "Lost East, Get the Mulberry Elm", during the period of the transformation vertical integration model, BYD's new energy vehicles gradually became momentum, from almost overlooked to the sales of more than 220,000 units in 2018. New energy vehicle sales top list. Since then, by relying on the focus focus of the changes and the accumulation of many years of vertical integration, BYD has developed a combination of blade batteries, DMI, flagship model "Han" and the E3.0 platform. At the same time, it also drives lithium iron phosphate batteries to return to the mainstream position.

Looking back at BYD's 20 -year car history, the first peak period in 2010, more is more of the vertical integration mode of the demographic dividend; from 2012 to 2019, BYD turned to electric vehicles to eat new energy subsidies to eat new energy subsidies. Policy dividends; only the second peak from 2020 to the present is the comprehensive role of BYD's new energy technology dividends and vertical integration open dividends. These three stages also correspond to the process of BYD's transformation from closed to change.

After a 7 -year dormant period, BYD has steadily entered the second peak moment, but it is also likely to be at this point.

03 The peak is also a watershed

Will the trillion market value be the end of BYD? Judging from the market value of Tesla, the old enemies of the same track, the answer is obviously not. There are Wall Street analysis agencies that 60%of Tesla's valuation comes from software income, insurance, charging services and other fields, which is exactly the most lacking part of BYD.

The profitability is naturally the basis for the market value gap between the two. According to the first quarter financial report and car sales calculation, Tesla's net profit of each car is 10,700 US dollars (72,400 yuan), while BYD is less than 2,000 yuan, which is 7 10,000 yuan.

BYD, who has achieved a staged victory in the first half of the electrification, has now come to the watershed of the car construction career. If it cannot make breakthroughs in intelligent or other fields, it will only "flutter" at the current level. It is difficult to compete with Tesla.

How can I break through the upper limit? Wang Chuanfu and BYD gave two paths.

The first is to continue to open the vertical integration system, to be a high -end foundry for smart vehicles, and win with scale. Three years after the launch of D ++ in 2018, the undead BYD launched the "E3.0" pure electric platform that was regarded by Wang Chuanfu as "the cradle of the next generation of electric vehicles" by Wang Chuanfu in September 2021. At the hardware level, 5 sub -modules are integrated on the basis of the original. At the same time, the blade battery is equipped with a maximum of more than 1000km. At the software level, it is equipped with BYD's self -developed operating system, which can achieve soft and hard and hard -to -hard declines and coupling and coupling and coupling OTA function.

BYD has announced the opening of this platform to the entire industry. By this, BYD hopes to "found" a pure tram model for other car companies. In BYD's ideas, any company with a foundry needs can be satisfied on the E3.0 platform like building blocks.

However, this is not an easy way to get through. First of all, the modular foundry of the platform also means that BYD almost packs all the components of more than 80%of a car, and the price is naturally rising. At the same time, the platform's foundry method means The intervention of multiple links such as manufacturing, which leads to the strong right to speak of the foundry.

More importantly, BYD itself is also a track player of smart cars. It is both a referee and athlete, which threatens many potential cooperation objects. The most obvious example is the Huawei Hongmeng System and Geely Automobile OEM. Both have encountered the same difficulties, especially Geely. In order to get orders or even spend huge sums of money with Baidu, the purpose is to promote the construction of its Hanhai vehicle.

"On the whole, this open platform's propaganda effect is greater than its actual industry value, but only a small part of car companies that do not have production and development capabilities will choose the platform, but it is only a short -term transition." Automobile analysts sealed Shiming believes.

At present, BYD has successfully cooperated with many industry partners such as Mercedes -Benz, Toyota, Didi, and Nino, but in terms of real effects, it is also difficult to say. Moreover, in the future, BYD automobile foundry must also face the challenges of Geely, Foxconn, and Lixin Precision.

The second path is to realize the intelligence of the whole department. Even if it cannot be led, it can at least compete with competitors.

However, now, this goal is still too far away. As early as 2013, BYD began the exploration of smart cars, earlier than new forces of cars. But to this day, BYD is still in a "mediocre" state in terms of intelligence. At the end of 2021, the China Automobile Center's evaluation of six hot -selling models on the market, BYD's overall performance was not good; in the "emergency avoidance performance indicators" closely related to personal safety, BYD Han EV was even more ranking. At the bottom, it is not as good as Nezha U Pro.

In contrast, since its establishment in 2014, Xiaopeng has begun to develop autonomous driving technology. It took 7 years to implement Xiaopeng interactive system and NGP to the present level.

The gap between consumers and visible to the naked eye made Wang Chuanfu sit still. Even though the foundation of electrification is strong, without intelligence leadership, BYD will eventually become everyone. Therefore, at the shareholders meeting on June 8, Wang Chuanfu emphasized that "now it is a fast fish to eat slow fish, only in the process of fast." Emergency, BYD, who has no time to try and error, has to start asking foreign aid. Since the beginning of this year, BYD has cooperated with Baidu, Nvidia, Huawei, and Huawei in smart cockpit and autonomous driving. However, the tangles of soul and flesh still exist. How can BYD want to become a great company, how can it be able to keep their nose in key areas and be subject to people?

Therefore, at this shareholders' meeting, Wang Chuanfu said: "The company will open all core technologies and fully verify in the field of intelligence." It turns out that Wang Chuanfu is still Wang Chuanfu of that year Wang Chuanfu. , Vertical integration is still its strongest thinking mode, but so how can time and money cost control?

Under this idea, BYD began to accelerate the intelligent layout: the field of AI chip, BYD's investment horizon, Hynovabled in hand; in terms of laser radar, BYD and Sagita Join announced the reaching a strategic investment agreement and a strategic cooperation framework agreement; in terms of autonomous driving algorithms, BYDIDIDE, BYD The "Shenzhen Daipai Zhixing Technology Co., Ltd." was established to jointly establish a future -oriented high -level intelligent driving solution; in February this year, it is reported that BYD has officially started the establishment of an autonomous driving research and development center.

The layout belongs to the layout, and it takes a lot of time to really wait until the flowering results. Compared with friends and merchants Geely, as early as 2016, Geely has established a subsidiary Yicha, a subsidiary specializing in intelligent driving, is similar to BYD. Obboses to Meizu in order to bring changes.

In April last year, a number of investors asked BYD: "When can BYD's autonomous driving catch or surpass Tesla?" In this regard, Wang Chuanfu, who has always been high -profile, just avoids the heavy response. "The natural advantage".

There is no doubt that in an intelligent competition, the first -to -AIDI BYD has become a veritable "slow fish". Not so ample.

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