What is the meaning of the central bank's shot on the exchange rate of foreign exchange foreign exchange risk reserves again?

Author:Economic Observer Time:2022.09.26

Adjustment of long -term exchange risk reserve is one of the tools for the central bank's stable foreign exchange. The central bank collects reserve for financial institutions that carry out the foreign exchange sales business, increasing the capital cost of banks engaged in related businesses, thereby increasing the cost of buying foreign exchange in enterprises or individuals, and then reducing enterprises and individuals to a certain extent. Demand for foreign exchange.

Author: Hu Yanming

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || The central bank adjusts the risk reserve of the long -term foreign exchange sales this time. Financial institutions shall pay the foreign exchange risk reserve at 20%of the signing amount of its remittance. This will increase the cost of foreign exchange sales in banks, reduce the demand for foreign exchange purchase in the enterprise, and then reduce the demand for foreign exchange purchase in the market, help the foreign exchange market supply and demand balance, and reduce the pressure of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

调 || "This time, the ups and downs are the same as the previous two, which shows that the central bank's determination to hit the depreciation of the depreciation of the depreciation and maintain stability exchange rate. If you do not fight with the central bank as the enemy, you should not bet on the RMB exchange rate to continue to depreciate." Jie Yunliang said.

Three || Many analysts said that the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate is more about the devaluation of the passive passiveness of the US dollar in the background of the US dollar index recently.

In order to stabilize the foreign exchange market, the central bank took the second shot during the month.

On September 26, the central bank stated that in order to stabilize the foreign exchange market expectations and strengthen macro -prudential management, it was decided that from September 28, 2022, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business was raised from 0 to 20%.

Pang Ye, chief economist of Zhongliang Lianlian Greater China, told reporters that the central bank's use of this tool is to increase the capital cost of banks engaged in related businesses and the cost of purchasing the US dollar in the long -term purchase of the bank, reducing the demand for long -term foreign exchange purchase demand The arbitrage demand and other non -real needs, restrict the irrational behavior in the long -term foreign exchange market, suppress the expectations of excessive fluctuations and unilateral changes in the foreign exchange market, prevent excessive depreciation or appreciation of the RMB, and help the RMB exchange rate to the US dollar at a reasonable and balanced level. Two -way fluctuations.

Stabilization exchange rate

Since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous interest rate hikes of the United States, the US dollar index has continued to strengthen, and non -US dollar currencies, including RMB, have depreciated to varying degrees.

"The central bank's adjustment, released the signal and symbolic significance of the stability maintenance rate. The offshore market has quickly increased by about 200 points, and then there has been a callback." Some foreign exchange traders told reporters.

After the news of the morning on the 26th, the offshore RMB (CNH) rebounded a short -term rebound, rising more than 200 basis points, rising from falling to rising, and subsequent declines. As of press time, the offshore RMB reported to 7.1632 against the US dollar, down 248 basis points in the day; RMB (CHY) reported 7.1588 against the US dollar, down 484 basis points in the day.

"New foreign exchange policies are announced today and implemented two days later. The effect can be seen two days later." Some macro analysts said.

This is the second time the central bank has shot the exchange rate for the second time this month. On September 5th, the central bank announced that it decided to reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions from September 15, 2022; on September 26, the central bank decided to start on September 28. The reserve ratio is raised from 0 to 20%.

Moreover, the two policies announced the interval between the implementation time from 10 days to 2 days.

Pang Ye believes that in the short term, the relevant departments have clearly released the basic stable policy signals of stable foreign exchange market expectations and maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, indicating that the determination to maintain the target of the exchange rate stability policy will give the RMB unilateral depreciation expectations "cooling down the cooling cooling. "It is expected to slow down the pressure of excessive depreciation of the RMB, promote the balanced supply and demand of the domestic foreign exchange market, and return the RMB exchange rate to the reasonable and balanced level. "Flock effect".

The long -term sales and sales refers to the negotiation of the customer and the bank to sign a long -term foreign exchange and sales contract, and agreed that the RMB -foreign currency, amount, exchange rate, and delivery period of foreign exchange currency, the amount, exchange rate, and delivery period of the foreign exchange settlement or exchange will be agreed in the future.

Long -term foreign exchange and sales business can help enterprises lock the long -term exchange rate, fixed costs, and effectively avoid the risk of market exchange rate fluctuations. For example, an export company signed a $ 1 million contract, and it is expected to receive the payment paid by the buyer after 3 months. In order to do a good job in the management of exchange rate risk, the company signed a three -month long -term foreign exchange settlement contract with the bank. The price settlement price of the long -term foreign exchange was 6.8. Three months later, the enterprise settled in the bank at a exchange rate of 6.8 and received 6.8 million yuan. If the enterprise has not signed a long -term contract, then settlement at the market price 3 months later: If the RMB appreciates to 6.5, the company will get 6.5 million yuan, a decrease of 300,000 yuan compared with the signing of the signing of the long -term contract; 7.0, the company gets 7 million yuan.

The central bank adjusts the risk reserve of the long -term foreign exchange sales this time, and financial institutions will deposit foreign exchange risk reserve at 20%of their remittances. This will increase the cost of foreign exchange sales in banks, reduce the demand for foreign exchange purchase in the enterprise, and then reduce the demand for foreign exchange purchase in the market, help the foreign exchange market supply and demand balance, and reduce the pressure of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

Why choose this tool

There are many tools for the stable exchange rate of the central bank, including but not limited to: start the counter -cycle factor; adjust the reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits; adjust the risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales; tighten the liquidity of offshore RMB; strengthen the control of capital projects. Regarding the tools for long -term exchange risk reserve rates, Xie Yunliang, director of Macro Strategy of Cinda Securities, explained that it was a new tool created by the central bank after the "811 exchange reform" in 2015. Before the "811 exchange reform", the central bank did not collect the reserve for the long -term foreign exchange sales business. The depreciation of the depreciation after the reform was too strong. Essence At that time, the statement was to incorporate the long -term foreign exchange sales business into macro -prudential management, requiring financial institutions to deposit foreign exchange risk reserve at 20%of its remote sales contract. Later, after the RMB exchange rate was stabilized, in September 2017, the central bank reduced the previously raised risk reserve rate for long -term exchange risk to zero.

During the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate of the RMB in August 2018, the central bank once again raised the risk reserve ratio of remittances to 20%, and it fell to zero in October 2020.

"This time, it is exactly the same as the previous two, which shows that the central bank's determination to fight the depreciation of the depreciation and maintain stability exchange rate. Without the central bank as the enemy, it is not necessary to bet on the RMB exchange rate to continue to depreciate." Jie Yunliang said.

Oriental Jincheng Chief Macro analyst Wang Qing predicts that if the RMB exchange rate will be separated from the US dollar index in the next step, the central bank will remove the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and increase the risk reserve rate of foreign exchange risk reserves, and you can also take a restart to restart Aversion -cycle factor, increased the scale of central ticket issuance of offshore markets, and strengthened the management of cross -border capital liquidity management. In addition to the above specific policies and measures, the regulatory level can further strengthen market communication, guide market expectations, and prevent the "herd effect" in the foreign exchange market.

What is the future trend

Many analysts said that the recent trend of the RMB exchange rate has been depreciated by relative US dollar passiveness in the background of the US dollar index recently.

Regarding the short -term trend of the RMB, the market generally believes that due to the continuous interest rate hikes of the Fed and the need for geopolitical factors, the US dollar will also run strong for a period of time. For example, Pang Yan said that the US dollar curve still has a motivation to rise to the right end, and if the Fed continues to take a radical interest rate hike in the eagle position, the difference between China and the United States may continue to increase, superimposed to the risk and inflation pressure of other major economies in the world Factors such as high -enterprise, the haze of the energy crisis, and geopolitical uncertainty may enhance the "shelter" attribute of US dollar assets. The US dollar is expected to continue to maintain a strong position for a period of time, and the RMB exchange rate may still be under pressure.

Zhao Yaoting, a global market strategist in Jingshun Asia Pacific (except Japan), recently said at the media sharing meeting that the US dollar will continue to have room for appreciation in the future. With the Fed's radical interest rate hikes and tightening monetary policy, the US dollar will further strengthen.

"Before the end of the year, the RMB still has a passive depreciation at the US dollar. It does not rule out the possibility of further depreciation to the range of 7.2 to 7.3 at the end of the year, but this does not mean that the renminbi is in substantial weakness, or the exchange rate risk is heating up. One of the signs is the three major RMB. The exchange rate index will remain basically stable, "Wang Qing said.

Wang Qing judged that if the Fed stopped raising interest rates at the end of the first quarter of 2023, the geopolitical situation would not develop in the direction of the out of control. By then, the US dollar may go downward, and the depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar will be relieved.

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