The US dollar index rose exceeded the 114 mark, and the pound and the euro fell!Experts call the US dollar index may have action or accumulate

Our reporter Hou Jiening's apprenticeship reporter Han Yu on September 26th, Beijing time, the US dollar index rose exceeded 114 during the Asian transaction period of the international foreign exchange market, and the highest value was reported at 114.68820, which continued to reach a new high in the past 20 years. The reporter sorted out Wind data and found that since September 19, the US dollar index has been strong, and it has risen by more than 3.1%from September 19th to September 23rd. The major non -US currency exchange rates such as the euro, yen, and pounds have fallen sharply. Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing told the Securities Daily that the current US dollar exchange rate for major non -US currency is generally higher than the trend level of about 20%. The latest data shows that the proportion of the US frequent project deficit to GDP in the first quarter has stood 5.0%of the threshold. This means that from the fundamental point of view, the momentum of the U.S. dollar's head -up is accumulated. If the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates at the end of the first quarter of 2023, the international geopolitical situation will not deteriorate expectations, and the US dollar index may be trending down. Zhao Qingming, deputy dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the US dollar index rose sharply one week before, mainly due to the stimulus of the Fed ’s radical rate hikes. In addition, the euro zone and Japan's economic fundamentals are more challenges than the United States, and it has also continued to decline in the exchange rate of the euro and the yen to the US dollar. In the early morning of September 22, the Fed announced the resolution of interest rates in September, and once again 75 basis points of Eagle interest rate hikes to cope with high inflation. At the same time, the "dot matrix" predicted by the Federal Reserve officials' interest rates shows that the interest rate is expected to increase by 4.4%by the end The market is interpreted as a hawk signal. Everbright Securities Research reports that the continuous depreciation of the euro, yen, and pounds on the US dollar is an important promoter for the US dollar index to enter the uplink cycle. From May 26th, 2021 to September 22, 2022, the contribution of the depreciation of the euro, yen, and pounds to the US dollar index reached approximately 55.99%, 17.46%, and 13.25%, respectively. From September 19th to September 23rd, the trend of the euro and the British pound is the opposite of the US dollar index. The exchange rate of the euro to the US dollar has fallen by about 3.4%a week. The above research report analysis states that due to the tightening rhythm of the European Central Bank's monetary policy compared to the Federal Reserve, coupled with the serious impact of international geopolitical conflicts on the euro zone, the risk of debt repayment in some euro districts has led to the continued depreciation of the euro exchange rate. Essence During the same period, the exchange rate of the pound also declined sharply, with a cumulative decline of more than 5.2%. As of September 26, the decline continued, hovering at the 1.06 mark, and the exchange rate level hit a new low since 1985. Zhao Qingming analyzed that the exchange rate of the pound was sharply declined, on the one hand, the US dollar exchange rate rose sharply, and the pound was passively under pressure; on the other hand, the British government was preparing to launch a large -scale tax reduction plan, thereby dragging the British exchange rate. After the yen exchange rate announced the interest rate hike on September 22, it quickly fell below the 145 mark, which once hit the lowest value since September 1998, but then reported that the Bank of Japan intervened in the exchange market. Essence Insiders believe that in the short term, the US dollar index will still maintain a strong probability that the US dollar index is expected to maintain a strong probability of interest rate hikes, but in the middle and long term, it may have a downlink. The above -mentioned Everbright Securities Research Report analyzed that the European Central Bank has begun to raise interest rates with the Fed on September 8. The Japanese authorities have begun to implement the "Japanese yen buy model" unilateral foreign exchange intervention measures on September 22. The slope is expected to gradually slow down. It is expected to be the first observation node in the US dollar index in December.

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