Yang Delong: The growth potential of my country's brand consumer goods is large consumer white horse stocks have long -term investment value

Yang Delong | Cube, everyone talks about column authors

The Shanghai and Shenzhen cities opened low, and the tail rushing fell, and there was a trend of shock. Since this year, due to the influence of super -expected factors, the growth rate of consumption is low, but brand consumer goods have long -term growth potential. After nearly two years of adjustment, many consumer white horse stocks have gradually possessed allocation value. Hong Kong announced the relaxation of entry conditions on the weekend. Entry in Hong Kong only needs to implement the "zero plus three", that is, no centralized isolation is needed, which is of great significance for promoting tourism consumption. Consumer white horse stocks are worthy of focusing on in the middle and long term, because from the direction of economic transformation, new energy and consumption are a relatively certain direction of transformation. In 2020, my country's per capita GDP exceeded $ 10,000. According to the experience of European and American countries, when the per capita GDP exceeded 10,000 US dollars, the consumption upgrade and the expansion of consumption were expanded. my country has the largest population in the world and the largest consumer market in the world, so the growth potential of brand consumer goods has gained great potential. In fact, most of the technology companies that can obtain relatively large profits in my country are consumer -related technology companies. For example, such as smartphone manufacturing and new energy vehicle sales, technology plus consumer models can release huge performance growth. In the past ten years, some technology Internet companies have also become world -class leading companies with the help of Dongfeng, which have expanded consumption. The essence of the technology Internet company is to make consumers more convenient with the Internet, and the potential for consumption growth is huge. The second quarterly report of the Qianhai Kaidou -Source high -quality leader has been announced. In addition to the layout of new energy leaders, it focuses on consumer white horse stocks. Since July, the A -share market has continued to adjust, which is mainly affected by the multiple factors of the internal and external factors. Although these factors have not been completely eliminated in the fourth quarter, it is expected to improve margin.

From the perspective of external factors, the Fed's continuous interest rate hike has impacted the global capital market. On September 21, the Fed announced that the federal interest rate was raised by 75 basis points to 3%to 3.25%. This was the fifth rate hike of the Federal Reserve since this year, and it has added 75 basis points for three consecutive times. The rhythm of interest rate hikes is rare. Although 75 basis points in September accused the previous market expectations, it still had a certain impact for the capital market. The Federal Reserve has lowered the expectations of US economic growth. The economic growth rate in 2022 was reduced from 1.7%to 0.2%. At the same time, the PCE inflation rate in 2022 was expected to increase from 5.2%to 5.4%. By the end of 2022, the U.S. unemployment rate was expected to reach 3.8 %, Expected to rise to 4.4%in 2023. The dot -up map released by the Federal Reserve shows that the Federal Reserve has greatly raised interest rates in 2022 and 2023, of which the interest rate in 2022 is expected to reach 4.4%. This also means that the Federal Reserve's two interest rates may raise interest rates at 125 basis points in the future. After the Federal Reserve held a meeting meeting last week, both US stocks and US bonds shocked. The 10 -year US debt yields fell to 3.63%, but it was still more than 3.5%, and US stocks closed sharply. The US dollar index continued to strengthen and exceeded 111.6. From the lowest point in early January this year, the US dollar index has increased by more than 25%, which has led to a significant depreciation of non -US currencies. The euro has fallen below the parity compared to the US dollar, which is the first time in history. The exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the 1400 mark, setting the lowest record since March 31, 2009. The yen fell below the 145 mark against the US dollar. Since this year, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has fallen by more than 12%. In the short term, the strength of the US dollar trend is mainly due to the Fed's tightening policy and the risk aversion attributes of the dollar.

In the long run, the exchange rate trend depends on the fundamental aspects of the two countries. Considering that the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes retraction may lead to stagnation or even decline in the US economy, the long -term strong foundation of the US dollar is not firm. Compared with the US dollar exchange rate below the "7", the RMB will not cause excessive concerns of the market, because from the long -term perspective, the potential of my country's economic growth is still large, and the economic fundamentals support the long -term trend of the RMB. At present, the US -Europe economy has a sign of slowing growth. The euro zone is facing the dilemma of economic downturn and high inflation. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates twice. In early September, the European Central Bank raised interest rates of 75 basis points. There may be 50 basis or 75 basis points in interest rate hikes. Considering the spray effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the euro area may pay a greater price to achieve the goal of lowering inflation. Emerging market countries have fled, which will have a certain impact on the economy of emerging market countries. The global trade cycle may slow down, which has a certain impact on the economy. Relatively speaking, my country's economy has built a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic dual -cycle and domestic and international dual cycles. Under the triple pressure of demand shrinkage, supply impact, and expected weakness, the growth rate of GDP continued to decline. Affected by the unexpected factors, the GDP fell to 0.4%in the second quarter.

In the second half of the year, the economy has begun to recover, but the recovery is not great. With the gradual landing policy launched by the State Council, the policy of stabilizing economic growth has gradually landed, and my country's economy may have recovered steadily in the fourth quarter. This is a strong support for the capital market. It is currently a time window with a better layout of the fourth quarter. I have been promoting the value investment concept of Buffett, and combined with the actual situation of the Chinese market to propose Chinese characteristics value investment, preliminary verification has been obtained in the past few years. Compared with U.S. stocks, the A -share market fluctuates more, the index has not increased greatly, the structural market rotation of individual stocks is relatively fast, and the structural market is relatively prominent. This requires more flexible operations to do value investment in the A -share market. When the market appears, it needs to be appropriately reduced to reduce risks, and when the market has a sharp decline, it is the time to reverse investment layout. Grasp the opportunity of industry rotation and grasp the structural market is an effective investment strategy. When the current market differences are large and the market confidence is low, it is recommended that investors maintain a good mentality, and do a good job of the company's shareholders or hold the high -quality fund to seize the long -term investment opportunities in the capital market. Responsible editor: Gao Shuai | Review: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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