Facing the high US dollar central bank again: increase the foreign exchange risk reserve rate of foreign exchange sales business, and curb short expectations

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter Chen Zhi reported that in order to stabilize the foreign exchange market expectations, the central bank will put another "big move".

On September 26, the central bank issued an announcement saying that starting September 28, 2022, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business was raised from 0 to 20%.

Affected by this, the offshore RMB exchange rate once jumped about 300 basis points. However, as the US dollar index continued to rise and exceeded the 114 integer mark, both domestic and foreign RMB fell.

As of 13:00 on September 26, the exchange rate of the RMB in the shore market in the shore market was hovering around 7.1645, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the overseas market reached 7.1631.

Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, told reporters that the central bank's increase in the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business will continue to release a strong signal expected to the market on the one hand. It plays a role in stabilizing exchange rate expectations and maintaining a reasonable and stable RMB exchange rate. This policy not only raises the transaction cost of banking remote sales business, and thus reduce the supply of funds for short -selling RMB, but also increases the cost of long -term foreign exchange purchase and suppress the needs of long -term foreign exchange purchase.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the central bank has raised the foreign exchange risk reserve rate of the remote sales business this time to 20%, which will increase the cost of bank foreign exchange sales for long -term foreign exchange sales to reduce the demand for long -term foreign exchange purchase, thereby reducing The demand for foreign exchange purchases in the future will help the foreign exchange market supply and demand balance.

The reporter was informed that most overseas investment institutions generally believe that compared with the central bank's foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points compared to the central bank, the central bank's foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of foreign exchange sales business is stronger. Fighting power. The former mainly relieves the decline in the decline in the decline in the financial market by regulating the liquidity of the financial market, and the latter directly reduces the pressure on market foreign exchange purchase, which makes it more difficult for speculative capital to create the rapid decline in one -sided RMB.

It is worth noting that despite the passive decline of the RMB exchange rate in the US dollar innovation, the internationalization process of the RMB has been steadily advanced.

The latest data released by the Global Banking Financial Communications Association (SWIFT) showed that the proportion of RMB transactions in August rose from 2.20%in July to 2.31%, still ranked fifth in global transactions.

Because the RMB exchange rate is more "strong" than non -US currency such as the euro, yen and pounds, more and more overseas companies are increasing the settlement of RMB for cross -border trade investment in China, thereby avoiding their own exchange rate risks.

与此对应的是，受近期欧元日元大幅下跌冲击，8月欧元使用量由7月的35.49%下降至34.49%，日元则从7月的2.82%下降至2.73%，表明人民币汇率在非The continuous "strong" of US currencies also helps the RMB steadily expand the scale of international trade and investment.

The People's Bank of China stated that the next stage of the central bank will adhere to market -driven and independent choices of enterprises to steadily improve the internationalization level of the RMB. On the one hand, it adheres to the expansion of high levels of openness to the outside world, further improves the policy support system and internationalization of the RMB cross -border use of RMB. Infrastructure to better serve the real economy; on the other hand, promote the two -way financial market in the financial market in two -way, and promote a virtuous circle of RMB in the shore and offshore market.

Solving "clearing problems"

A Hong Kong bank foreign exchange trader told reporters that an important purpose of the central bank's foreign exchange risk reserve for foreign exchange sales business is to prevent the continuous decline of the RMB exchange rate to trigger the flock of the flock of the foreign exchange market to ferment again.

Earlier, as long as the RMB exchange rate continued to fall, many imported companies would increase emergency purchase and stop loss, while exporting companies waited for the exchange rate to further fall and then settle foreign exchange. This was once known as the "clearing problem" in the industry.

"With the peak period of foreign exchange payment in the fourth quarter, if the flock of the sheep effect is fermented, it may cause the RMB exchange rate to fall rapidly and expected to rise suddenly. He analyzed to reporters.

A joint -stock bank financial market department revealed to reporters that the central bank's foreign exchange risk reserve ratio ratio is "just at the time."

"The RMB exchange rate has fallen below the 7.1 integer mark. Recently, the company's long -term foreign exchange purchase efforts have increased, resulting in the bank's exchange rate risk hedging pressure rising." He told reporters that when the bank helped the company's exchange for a long -term foreign exchange purchase business, it was also It will get corporate long -term foreign exchange purchases to the foreign exchange market's "hedge" exchange rate risk, resulting in the long -term foreign exchange market demand for foreign exchange market purchase far more than the need for foreign exchange settlement, resulting in the continued increase in pressure on the decline in the RMB exchange rate.

In the past, overseas speculative capital has often seized this opportunity, selling short -selling RMB to create a larger RMB exchange rate to quickly fall in one side of the unilateral decline, thereby receiving an excess return.

Nowadays, after the central bank raising the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of foreign exchange sales business, the bank will "pass" the new cost of new foreign exchange purchases to the enterprise, which can effectively reduce the wave of centralized foreign exchange purchase and make the RMB long -term foreign exchange market. The transaction price is more stable, curbing RMB unilateral declines and expected to rise rapidly.

Containment of the foreign exchange market short -selling expected gathering

Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing said that the central bank's foreign exchange risk reserve ratio will increase the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the market, which will increase the expected excessive gathering of the exchange market for long -term foreign exchange purchase costs. Considering the rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate at the current trend of the US dollar, the move aims to further stabilize the expectations of the exchange market. The aforementioned Hong Kong foreign exchange traders told reporters that this did have a significant deterrent to overseas speculative capital.

After the central bank's foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, the RMB exchange rate of the overseas offshore market was higher than that of the RMB exchange rate in the shore, indicating that overseas speculative capital has quickly reduced many renminbi short positions. As of 13:00 on September 16, the RMB exchange difference at home and abroad was less than 30 basis points, which means that even if the RMB exchange rate fell below 7.15, overseas speculative capital did not dare to rashly sell short -selling RMB.

"Especially the overseas quantitative investment funds have reduced the weight of centralized foreign exchange purchase factors, correspondingly raised the balanced valuation of the RMB exchange rate, and made the RMB exchange rate more tough." The foreign exchange trader in Hong Kong revealed. This means that the capital forces participating in speculative short -selling RMB have been further reduced.

A Wall Street Hedie Fund Manager revealed to reporters that the foreign exchange market was expected to have a good opportunity to buy foreign exchange payment from foreign exchange in the fourth quarter, or to sell short -selling RMB exchange rate arbitrage. But now many hedge funds have played "retreat".

RMB internationalization is still steadily advanced

It is worth noting that although the US dollar index has innovated the RMB exchange rate to 7.15, the internationalization process of the RMB has been steadily advanced.

The latest data released by Swift shows that in August this year, the RMB maintained the status of the fifth largest payment currency in the world in a 2.31%share, and the total amount of RMB payment increased by 9.25%from July in August, exceeding the growth rate of the total amount of all currencies by 4.01 %.

A private equity fund macroeconomicist pointed out to reporters that the first is that the performance of non -US currencies such as the euro, yen and pound compared to the euro, yen, and pounds are "strong", which attracts more and more overseas companies to use more RMB to replace the above non -US currency development. Trade settlement further avoids the risk of its own exchange rate; the second is to continue to rise in the US dollar financing interest. Many overseas companies are also inclined to use RMB with relatively low financing interest rates to carry out trade settlement and reduce the financing and financial costs of their own trade payment.

He said that in addition to trade, overseas central bank institutions and global long -term investors that use RMB to develop financial investment in China are also increasing. Faced with the sharp decline in non -US currency exchange rates, more and more overseas central banks need to increase their holdings of relatively stable exchange rate fluctuations to hedge the exchange rate risk of their non -US currency investment portfolio.

The 2022 RMB internationalization report released by the People's Bank of China pointed out that in the first half of this year, the amount of cross -border payment of RMB reached 2.032 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.7%year -on -year. ; And incomplete statistics, more than 80 overseas central banks or currency authorities have included RMB into foreign exchange reserves.

Many banks told reporters to public business departments that whether it is trade or capital, there is still much room for development of overseas institutions to use RMB to carry out cross -border trade investment. Continuous demand for positions.

The People's Bank of China stated that in the future, relevant departments will continue to do a good job of system design, policy support and market cultivation work, strengthen the coordination of domestic and foreign currency, and support market entities to use more RMB in foreign trade investment; promote the opening of the financial market to the comprehensive institutional type, and increase the transformation, improve The liquidity of RMB financial assets further facilitates foreign investors to invest in the Chinese market, enrich the types of assets that can invest, and facilitate foreign investors, especially central bank institutions to allocate more RMB assets.

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