Before the National Day, we will increase the supply of pig sources to avoid the short -term rise of pig prices.

21st Century Business Herald reporter Chen Jie Guangzhou report

After a period of time, the price of pigs continued to rise.

On September 24, the National Bureau of Statistics released the market price of important production data in the circulation field in mid -September 2022 showing that the price of pigs (three yuan, the same below) price was 23.7 yuan/kg, which rose 0.9% compared with early September, rose 0.9% Essence

Agricultural product researcher at the Zhejiang Business Futures Research Center, Wan Xiaoquan, told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that the current supply and demand for pigs are relatively tight, and the production capacity will continue to be fulfilled on the supply side. Essence Although the demand has been relatively weak in the near future, farmers are generally optimistic about the price of pigs in the market outlook, and the price of sales is heavy, and the overall pig price shows a strong trend.

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter noticed that before the National Day, many parties announced that it would increase the supply of pig sources. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission stated that in order to earn a good job in the pig market to protect the price, the state will put on the third batch of central pork reserves this year. At the same time, Muyuan and Wen's shares have publicly stated that the supply of pigs will be increased around the National Day.

"The adjustment of the Development and Reform Commission is to avoid the rise of pig prices too fast." Wei Xin, a researcher at the Agricultural Products Department of CITIC, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald that in the current upsurge of pig prices, if the risk of excessive rising risks, the Development and Reform Commission has passed the passing Policies, such as increasing pork reserves to calm prices.

Pig price before National Day is strong

In the past six months, pig prices have entered the upward pig cycle. According to data from China Pig.com, from June 11th to September 26th, in just three and a half months, the price of pigs rose 53.4%.

According to the August CPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of livestock meat rose by 10.1%in August, which affected CPI by about 0.32 percentage points, of which pork prices rose 22.4%, affecting CPI by about 0.30 percentage points.

Entering mid -to -late September, the rise in pig prices was quite obvious. According to data from China Pig Nourishing Network, on September 26, the pigs were 24.53 yuan/kg. The price increased by 5.3%from 23.29 yuan/kg on September 10.

Zhuo Chuang Information Pig analyst Li Jing told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that the weather has become cold in the near future, and the demand for big pigs has increased, but the supply of big pigs has declined, and the amount of fat pigs need to be less. , The breeding party began to increase the fence and the supply end shrinkage. The terminal demand is insufficient, and the consumption surface is light. From the perspective of the farming end, farmers look at the four quarters of the rise, coupled with the coming of pickled waxy, the demand for big pigs has increased, and breeding households have a strong willingness to price.

To this end, before the National Day, the supply of pig source was increased.

On September 19, at a press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, said that since this year, the price of domestic pigs has gone through the process of falling first and then rising. Fluctuations are at a high level of history. In the past week, the price of pig food is 8.38: 1, and it is at the upper edge of the reasonable range 6: 1 to 9: 1 determined by the pork reserve plan.

"Recently, in order to increase the supply of festivals such as the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day, we also put two batches of central pork reserves with relevant departments. Recently, we will also put the third batch of reserves and guide localities to increase their efforts to place local pork reserves simultaneously. In the later stages, it is expected that the country and localities will put a total of about 200,000 tons of pork reserves in September. "Meng Wei pointed out.

Wei Xin pointed out that it is expected that the country and localities will put a total of about 200,000 tons of pork reserves in September. What is the concept of this data? In fact, the total consumption of pork in the country a month is about 5 million tons. The 200,000 tons are not large. In addition, the consumption of ordinary people is mainly fresh, and frozen meat may not be able to replace fresh meat into the market immediately. Therefore, pork toll storage has more role signals to transmit policy signals, and at the same time, it has a certain conduction effect on the pork industry chain.

Wan Xiaoquan pointed out that starting from the end of August, the Development and Reform Commission has actively regulated the pig market, mainly to guide the industry's normal operation, ensure that the market is sufficient supply, and stabilize the price of pigs. At present, three batches of frozen pork have been carried out. Although the number of market supply and demand is relatively limited, it has played an effective role in guiding the normal operation of the market and largely maintains stable prices.

In addition to the policy level, recently, some companies have also announced that they will increase the supply of pigs.

For example, the public account of Muyuan Co., Ltd. said that the National Day will increase the number of pigs. Wen's Mall said that Wen's shares will take the initiative in the preservation price of the pig market and increase the supply around the National Day.

Wei Xin pointed out that at present, some companies have stated that they will increase the number of pigs in the National Day. However, it should be pointed out that the production of pigs has a cycle. For a period of time, how many pigs can be able to columns for a period of time are basically determined.

"If it is more time during this time, it may be less in the next time. This is a process of adjustment. Fundamentally, hoping to increase the total supply of pork, in fact, it should continue to go out after continuing fattening." Wei Xin said.

Li Jing pointed out that the current demand side has limited support, and the price of pigs is newly high. It is expected that the profitability of pig farming in the market outlook has room for increase in profitability, but the increase is limited.

How much is the price of pig prices?

The Development and Reform Commission and some enterprises have increased the supply of pig sources before the National Day.

Meng Wei pointed out at the above conference that considering that the current price of pigs is at a high level, the average profit of pig farming heads is also significantly higher than the historical average. It is not conducive to the long -term healthy development of the industry. Therefore, in the next few months, the focus of the national pig price regulation is to prevent the price from rising too fast. So, what is the rising price of pigs too fast?

In June 2021, the "Improve the Government's Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism Do a Better Plan for Pork Market Purchase Property Price Program" was released, and an early warning classification was proposed by the excessive decline and excessive rise.

Among them, during the warning rally of over-rising situations, when the price of pig food was higher than 9: 1, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a third-level warning; When the average price of lean meat retail prices in large and medium-sized cities rose between 30%-40%year-on-year, a second-level warning was issued; when the price of pig food was higher than 12: 1, or the retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium cities When the average weekly price increased by more than 40%year -on -year, a first -level warning was issued.

"The ratio of pig food is greater than 9: 1. It is a three -level warning that is over -rising. For the current price, it means that the price of pigs reaches about 26 yuan, which may trigger the early warning. From time to time, if the current price rises a week in a week, it will rise in a week. 2-3 yuan, then it is also an excessive rise. "Wei Xin said.

At present, the supply and demand of the pig market has different pressures.

Wei Xin said that from the past, pig prices were high in the third or fourth quarter. In addition, since July this year, corresponding to the depth of sows in September and October last year, the low point of the supply of pigs will occur in July and August this year. Coupled with the obvious sales mentality of farmers, the overall supply is tight.

"In the context of tight supply, the right to speak with breeding enterprises has a strong right to speak, and the price has also increased. If the price is reversed, the supply of supply is needed. However, the price of pigs is high and the impact on consumption is not small. Judging from the feedback from the slaughtering side, the pig slaughter after the Mid -Autumn Festival has entered a relatively low point. "Wei Xin said.

So, how boosted pork consumption on National Day?

Wei Xin said that the National Day will have a big boost on the pork consumer market and needs to depend on the needs of people's travel and dinner, but at present, the impact of the epidemic still exists. If the festival reduces the dinner, then the pork consumption will consume during the National Day during the National Day It will be difficult to increase significantly.

Li Jing pointed out that according to the market stock market preparation on the eve of the recent holidays, the demand is less than previous years. It reflects that the stock preparation time continues to be shorter. It is expected that there will be a wave of consumption before the National Day, but it is estimated that the increase is limited. The overall price of pigs before the National Day is relatively stable, and the holiday period may not change much.

"At present, in the rise of the pig cycle, from the perspective of production capacity to exfoliate, after May, farmers and farms have increased production, and the overall price increase of prices in the market outlook. The regulation of meat and the substantial pouring of the supply side. "Li Jing pointed out.

Wan Xiaoquan said that the National Day is expected to boost pork consumption. It is expected that the National Day pork consumption will improve significantly, but the overall consumption volume may still be relatively limited.

"It is still in the upward stage of pig prices, but due to the increase in industrial concentration and increased capital participation, the rhythm of the adjustment of production capacity is accelerated, the estimated cycle operation time is shortened by narrowing the fluctuation range, and the price increase of price increases in the market outlook will be limited. If it is not as good as expected, the price of pigs may be suppressed. "Wan Xiaoquan said.

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