Sudden!What happened?A shares suddenly dived, and the first technical challenge was encountered. Can the rebound continue?

Suddenly!

Today, the news of "the country plans to ban third -party platforms from directly participating in the drug network sales" rushed to the second place on Weibo hot search list. According to the Sina Finance report, a few days ago, the State Drug Administration's "Implementation Regulations of the People's Republic of China (Revised Draft for the Draft Consultation)" issued by the State Drug Administration, the public solicitation opinion for a month has officially interrupted. As the size of the pharmaceutical retail market on the third -party platform is increasing, the state will further clarify relevant management obligations. Article 83 of this newly added stipulation: third -party platform providers shall not directly participate in drug network sales activities.

Affected by this news, the stock prices of the two giants of Ali Health and Jingdong Health have been diarrhea, and their declines have reached about 16%. Alibaba and JD.com's stock price in the Hong Kong market also had a certain degree of killing, and drove the Hang Seng Technology Index to greatly adjust. So, how much will the impact of the above policy be?

From the perspective of the A -share market, technically, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index encountered the technical challenge since the rebound of rebound today. The index effectively fell below the support level of the rebound trend. At the same time, it also encountered huge pressure on the semi -annual line at this position. So, will the market end?

Heavy and heavy rushing on the hot search

On June 22, the news of "the state intends to ban third -party platforms from participating in the drug network sales directly" rushed to the second place on Weibo hot search list.

At present, the State Drug Administration's "Implementation Regulations of the People's Republic of China (Draft for the Draft Consultation)" issued by the State Drug Administration has cut off. The "third -party platform provider shall not directly participate in pharmaceutical network sales activities" in Article 83 of the "Draft for Opinions", which has attracted much attention. Since the regulations are still revised, whether Article 83 will be modified, there is no conclusion for the time being.

However, due to this, Ali Health and JD.com's stock price appeared in the avalanche. The decline of the two is close or more than 16%. From the information point of view, the proportion of the two companies' online sales drugs is relatively large. JD Health achieved operating income of RMB 30.682 billion in 2021, of which the company's self -operated retail pharmacy business operating income was 26.2 billion yuan. Ali Health achieved revenue of 20.577 billion yuan, while the prescription drug business increased by 105.2%compared with last year. From this point of view, online retail drugs are still one of the main sources of income from these Internet medical giants.

So, if the policy is really introduced, how big will the impact will be?

Northeast Securities believes that the market is concerned about the strict implementation of this regulation, and the operation or impact of pharmaceutical e -commerce (1P business) is operated. If the policy is officially implemented, the overall impact on the pharmaceutical Internet sector (Ali Health, Jingdong Health, etc.) is limited: At present, e -commerce self -operating (1P business) rely on offline chain pharmacy qualifications (Ali's health offline subject is "Guangzhou 5,000 thousand thousand "New Year's Medicine", JD Health was operated for "Qingdao Anji Hall").

If the policy is strictly implemented, it will not rule out the possibility of operating the 1P business independently through the method of stripping independent companies and other methods. Considering that the implementation regulations are for soliciting opinions, the attitude of subsequent policies (submitting review, formal drafts) is more critical (refer to the previous "Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Drug Network Sales" (the difference between the drafts and review of the review).

From the perspective of supervision, this policy more reflects the fairness of online/offline supervision. Previously, the problem of 1P/3P diversion in the industry was expected to be clarified. In the long run, it is optimistic about the large -scale offline chain pharmacy with large -scale advantages (Yifeng/People/Gosamin/Yixintang/Jianzhijia/Jianzhijia/Civilian, and the ranking is not the same), as well as the platform advantageous pharmaceutical e -commerce company (Ali Health/Jingdong Health).

A -share callback

Today, diving in the A -share market.

First of all, from a technical point of view, the A -share market encountered the first technical challenge of this wave of rebound, that is, it fell below the trend line at this position and was suppressed by the half -year line. If it is only technical, the weak performance of this key position will induce technical throwing.

Secondly, the attitude of foreign capital recently has undergone a lot of changes, and the continuous bottom -up of the rebound has been changed. The rhythm of frequently sold recently is relatively obvious. Earlier, the reason why A shares could get out of the independence trend were largely related to the continuous purchase of foreign investment. Recently, foreign capital has continued to sell, and the RMB has depreciated again. For the market, it can also cause panic.

Third, there are indeed more profitables in the market. Many stocks rebounded hugely. Since April 28, this wave of rebounds has increased by more than 30%of stocks, and more than 280 stocks have risen by more than 50%. Under the background of the global economy that is not optimistic, the wave of staged profits will always appear from time to time.

Fourth, the recent decline in global transactions. Today, international oil prices have also opened a big diving model. The decline in the U.S. stock finger has exceeded 1%before the market. Last night, US stocks rose sharply. Analysts believe that if it is expected to decline into a real recession, the global stock market may be difficult to be spared. Of course, it is only the beginning stage.

So, is the rebound of the A -share market ended? It may be difficult to conclude at present.

First of all, although foreign capital is continuously sold, the differences still exist.According to reports, on the occasion of the global stock market this month, Chinese stocks have shown toughness, and an option trader is betting on the rise of Chinese stocks.The option trading volume of Xtrackers Harvest's CSI 300 Index ETF rose sharply on Tuesday. Because some people adopted the so -called bullish risk reversal strategy, that is, the probability of betting on the fund is very high, and the possibility of falling is very small.In the transaction, there are more than 200,000 contracts, involving buying and selling contracts with different execution prices, respectively.Secondly, there are still some favorable markets that have not been fulfilled. For example, the United States reduces tariffs, the degree of domestic economic recovery, what level of wide credit has reached, and the expectations of the reference expectations and the entire market's registration system.From the current point of view, as long as the monetary policy remains loose, the systemic risk of the market should not be too great, which also means that at least structural opportunities still exist.To some extent, structural opportunities can also hold the entire market.

Responsible editor: tactics

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