How to invest in the global market turbulence?Senior executives from domestic and foreign securities firms, funds, and asset management companies diagnose the pulse

Economic Observation Network reporter Hu Yanming Liangji "When the world economy is sailing in the uncertain ocean, we should strive to find a certain direction. Only by promoting globalization and improving global governance can we make the world return to certainty. . "At the" 2022 Autumn Summit "held by the Global Wealth Management Forum (GAMF) on September 24th, Li Jiange, General Director -General of the Organizing Committee of the Global Wealth Management Forum and the chairman of the Sun Yefang Economic Science Foundation said in his speech.

The main body of this summit is "looking for the certainty of uncertainty". Some guests have published "the situation of stable prices in the past 40 years is being threatened", "The global economy has gone out of the" Great Mission "period in the past 40 years. "The epidemic, high inflation, potential decoupling, geopolitics and extreme weather have brought risks to the world economy.

Just a few days ago, the Fed's interest rate hikes had just fallen, which caused the global financial market to regenerate. How do financial institutions predict and respond? At the meeting, executives from financial institutions such as national sovereign funds, domestic securities, fund companies, and asset management companies made their views on the global economic situation and put forward investment advice.

Global structure reconstruction

Jiu Weimin, the general manager of CIC, believes that the current centennial change bureau and the century epidemic overlay, the global economic situation and geopolitical structure are undergoing profound changes, and the international financial market is more turbulent and fragile, and uncertainty and instability have risen significantly.

In order to cope with uncertainty and major changes, Ju Weimin suggested: First, wealth management agencies should adhere to long -term investment concepts, to withstand short -term market fluctuations, grasp long -term trends, and strive to pursue higher long -term investment returns; the second is to optimize the asset allocation structure. Pay attention to alternative assets mainly focused on private equity and physical assets; the third is to seize theme investment opportunities in emerging fields, such as technology, medical care, new materials, new infrastructure and other fields. Actively pay attention to sustainable investment, put the concept of sustainable investment into action, tailor -made and innovative sustainable investment standards and strategies, and lead to sustainable investment practice.

Lin Zhaojie, chief executive officer of the Singapore Government Investment Corporation (GIC), believes that the investment environment is undergoing transformation, and we are in the process of leaving the old state and entering a new state. In this context, the changes in the inflation mechanism, the new geopolitical pattern and the new energy situation: the three main transformation trends are worthy of investor attention.

Lin Zhaojie said that the situation of stable prices in the past 40 years is being threatened. The inflation process has undergone structural changes, and the inflation rate may be higher in the future. In addition, the geopolitical pattern has changed, the peace dividend has disappeared, and enterprises and consumers will eventually bear more costs for this. Energy transformation is imminent. In order to achieve the "net zero emissions" goal, the price of carbon will have to increase in the future.

In terms of influence on investors, Lin Zhaojie believes that the continuous decline in interest rates on asset valuation is likely to become the past, and physical assets cannot avoid the impact of the actual interest rate. Diversify the portfolio of investment, focus on long -term, and prepare rather than rely on predictions. Lin Zhaojie particularly emphasized that the foundation of cooperative efforts is trust, and trust is the basis for investment and the normal operation of the market.

Valérie Baudson, CEO of Dongfang Huili Asset Management, analyzed the global economic situation from the short -term and medium -term dimensions, respectively.

Valérie Baudson believes that market fluctuations and economic recession risks will occur in the short term. Economic expectations of various countries will become more pessimistic. The United States and Europe are facing high inflation problems. In order to fight inflation, the central bank will continue to tighten the monetary policy. This will eventually lead to demand demand Slows with growth. In addition, the geographical situation, energy crisis, economic slowdown, and recession risks are the focus of market attention. In this context, investors must carefully handle the global allocation of capital based on accurate financial data and active management of risk exposure. In the middle and long term, the market trend will still help investors and asset management industries, and capital is generally optimistic about the investment potential of Asia and China.

"In 2022, whether it is the global economy or the global market, it is a challenging year." Li Wei, Li Wei, the global economy of Belle, has gone out of the world's "great easing in the past 40 years. "period. It will follow the larger macroeconomic and market volatility, higher risk premiums, and more frequent adjustments to the investment portfolio.

Why is steady growth over? Li Wei said that the supply chain first adjusted due to trade frictions. Secondly, the epidemic causes service and commodity trade fluctuations. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine's conflict, geopolitics, and low -carbon transformation have also been influenced. The decision makers of the central bank are facing a more difficult choice and choice than the previous 40 years of steady growth.

In Li Wei's view, if the central bank continues to go to the old road and when it comes to inflation, it may be effective for reducing inflation, but it will bring many consequences and costs. "If the core inflation rate falls to 2 % in 2023, the United States may need to bear -2 % of economic growth next year, and 5 % of the unemployment rate, which means that there will be a new 3 million lost population."

Michael Strobaek, the chief investment director of Credit Suisse, believes that since 2022, the economic order has been re -reshuffled, and geopolitical order has been rapidly changing. In the past three years, the global economy has just obtained a certain recovery, but now it has faced huge stagnation threats. The rising inflation index has become the primary goal of central banks in various countries, and even some major economies have regarded it as a political issue. Find investment opportunities

Since the beginning of this year, affected by geographical conflicts, repeated epidemic, and currency tightening policies under high inflation, the global commodity market, foreign exchange market, stock market and derivatives market have shown severe fluctuations. In this context, Liu Jian, chairman of Shen Wanhongyuan Securities, believes that there are three significant changes in the development environment of the asset management industry: first, the global monetary policy environment has gradually shrunk from extreme easing to gradually shrink; second, the domestic asset management industry has moved from local opening to a comprehensive system. Sexual openness; third, the competition in the asset management industry has developed from a single family to the differentiated development of diversified institutions.

Liu Jian believes that the asset management industry must take the initiative to embrace the three major trends: first, embrace the new opportunities brought by the systematic reform of the capital market; second, the new opportunities brought about by embracing residents' savings to investment conversion; third, embrace basic tools New opportunities for global asset allocation brings.

In order to cope with the current challenges faced by the Chinese asset management industry, Zhan Yuyin, chairman of E Fund Fund, believes: First, establish the concept of long -term investment capital, attach importance to the construction of the pension investment system, increase long -term funds into the asset management industry, the asset management industry to develop ecology Transformation is a necessary guarantee for the high -quality development of the asset management industry. Second, strengthen the construction of global investment research, asset allocation, and collaborative services. Through the supply of decentralized and diversified products, the efficiency of configuration is improved to meet the different customer bases to meet the different customer bases to global investment services worldwide. Third, establish a customer -oriented solution system to integrate inclusive finance with digital finance to connect with long -tail customer needs; fourth, implement responsible investment, and have sufficient responsible investment development opportunities in the Chinese market.

YBS Asset Management Yin Lei, the Asia -Pacific region and the director of China ’s shore business, said that in the past ten years, the Chinese asset management industry has been flourishing, and it has grown into the world’ s second largest asset management market second only to the United States. While the market is developing rapidly, we should also see the challenges facing the asset management industry: First of all, global inflation has begun to rise since the second half of 2021; second, trade friction and epidemic impact have led to the re -configuration of the global industrial chain. Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the confrontation of ideological constant impact has continuously impacted the already fragile economic globalization, and the "anti -globalization" continuously upgraded has made the global economy risk. Monetary policy.

Yin Lei believes that challenges are often coexisting with opportunities: First, considering the current risks and uncertainties currently facing the financial market, investors continue to increase their demand for alternative investment that can bring absolute income; second, as banks gradually tighten their credit to credit credit EMU, some enterprises, especially the real estate sector, began to face debt pressure, and non -performing assets with greater potential value are becoming a new value depression; third, the capital market pays more attention to ESG investment and corporate green development transformation; fourth, China, China, China, China The market is still the world's largest and most attractive asset management market.

Michael Strobaek believes that the current world is in a large transition period, many asset categories with strong liquidity are obviously under pressure, sustainable investment targets should be valued, and sustainable investment will be a long -term trend. In terms of energy security, due to the continued rise in the Ukraine crisis, energy prices have continued to rise, and this change can also be considered a catalyst in the field of sustainable development in the future. Therefore, he suggested that asset management institutions need to diversify assets and tilt the investment portfolio from ESG and sustainable development to cope with the impact of climate change.

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