How far is the market from reversing?——Doda Dialogue Dr. Niu Niu

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

This week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A -share market as a whole is a trend of shocking. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 1.22%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 2.27%, and the GEM index fell 2.68%. As far as the decline of the three major indexes alone is equivalent to a middle yin line, but for many stocks, the decline is far exceeding the index. And more importantly, this signs of yin falling will continue to crack down on market confidence.

So how do you think of the current market adjustment? How long does it take to adjust? How to cope with the current market conditions? Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topics that everyone cared about.

Dr. Niu: Hello, Da Ge. This week's market feels that operation is more difficult than last week. It belongs to "blunt knife cut meat". The index did not fall, but the short -term declines of many stocks were not small. For example, the three major indexes fell by less than 1%on Friday. situation?

Da Ge: This week's SSE Index formed a buffer K -line combination. It was a stage of a speed reduction after the rapid decline of last week. It is a short -term repair. It is just that the repair is relatively weak, and there is a gap with the expected restoration.

For the current market conditions, there are many information interpretations. It is nothing more than two factors internal and external. The internal economy is in the stage of weak recovery. In addition to the expected expectations of the Federal Reserve, there are potential impacts of the geographical situation. The uncertainty faced by the long holiday A shares closed, and the big funds were unwilling to enter the game.

These belong to the bright cards that everyone can see now. The most important thing is that the market confidence is insufficient. The situation presented by the syndrome index this week is the trend of overcast falls. The general problem of rapid fluctuations in the market is not big. The most afraid of is the yin fall. Repeatedly tossing between disappointment and finally disappearing confidence.

When dealing with the current market, you can only control your hands. You can use a very small position to feel the market temperature, but it is more waiting. Still, we are not the creator of the opportunity, but the followers of the market. They can only pay attention to the market and wait for the exact reversal signal of the market to appear.

As far as technical analysis is concerned, from the perspective of the midline, the current adjustment of the K -line level of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is the normal decline in the pressure of the pressure above. Because the index does not keep the low point in August, it has developed into a weak trend. Generally speaking, the index is high in the space that rebounds in April to July to make a large-class box shock, and the range of the shock is between the front height and the front low. Therefore, as far as a big opportunity is concerned, the closer the front is, the more beneficial.

Considering that the market does not have particularly large empty emptiness, and the index is not far from the front. At this time, there is no need to overcome the market too much. The market is not far from reversing. Besides, the short -term market situation, on Thursday, I mentioned in the note that there may be opportunities in the short -term. From the perspective of Friday, there is indeed a rapid rise in the market, like a slowdown in the disadvantaged market.

Da Ge's understanding is that the cost of the "reconnaissance team" was sent out on the tentative pressure on the trial, but from the results, it was beaten back from the results. If the follow -up index is still unable to put it on and the amount of volume occurs, you can try it with small funds, but be careful of the short -term restoration of the market and continue to develop horizontally. At present, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has a feeling of crossing the K -line in the last 5 days. If the subsequent sideways continue to be stretched, be careful of "long -term decline" and continue to adjust in depth.

Dr. Niu: The current market is difficult to do. It is not difficult for me to remind you for the opportunity to Digo, but is there a section worth observing or adjusting the future stock selection ideas?

Da Ge: Compared with March-April, in the current adjustment, many active funds are "lying flat". A typical example is that since mid -August, the activity of part of the trend transaction power represented by the two melands has accelerated, and it is currently at a low level during the year. At the same time that the two melodes have declined, the short -term has continued to sluggish. Since the Dagang shares, data such as board stocks and market heights have continued to maintain their low positions.

Even the plates operated by this type of market -sensitive funds have no money to make money, not to mention ordinary investors. As for the recent opportunities under the weak market, I have made it clear in the previous note, such as coal and port shipping, all of which were tracked all the way from late August and became expected. Although It is difficult to say how much opportunities, but it is still a lot stronger compared to most sectors in the market.

The direction mentioned above represents a stock selection idea. This long -term box shock is not following the market sector. When the market is weak, it must pay more attention to the opportunity to get out of the situation. In the process of continuous operation of the market, we still need to further identify these sectors to retain weakness.

From the perspective of following, there are basically not many differences in the market with highlights in the recent market. Anyway, funds have repeatedly moved in the recent strong sector. Operation ideas.

Of course, everyone is more concerned about the potential opportunities after the market adjustment, but at present, the volume can not keep up, the entire disk can only rotate exhaustion, and there is no chance. New opportunities are best to have a new or low -level new main line, because the market likes to do new and not old. What I like is to do low or not, and can only keep patient observation. Continuous tracking can be tracked for the relatively low positions in the near future and continuously changing, because they are potential seed players after the market transfer, but whether it can lead the market, it is the market choice. It can wait for the market to make the market recently. Opportunity. Anyway, holding a group is easy to identify, don't worry about stepping on the air.

Dr. Niu: The news on the weekend is relatively bland. What is more concerned about the CBRC stated that the momentum of real estate finance foaming has been substantially reversed.

Daeda: Recently, the relevant person in charge of the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission said that the momentum of real estate financial foam has been substantially reversed.

Since the beginning of this year, the real estate industry has ushered in multiple policies and measures, such as local governments have introduced preferential policies for buying houses. For the A -share market, the real estate sector has a good activity in the recent period of time. There are also signs of funds entering the market, but it is difficult to cause trend rebound in the weak market. Observed.

On September 23, the global financial market encountered a "Black Friday". Almost all financial asset prices were falling, and European stocks fell sharply. Only the US dollar was rising. It can be seen that not only the global stock market fell on Friday, but many major currencies have depreciated.

This performance in overseas markets obviously has a negative impact on A shares, but we have seen this situation more. It is more about affecting the opening. A shares have their own rhythm, so you don't have to worry too much. For the opportunity of A shares, it has been very clear before. Anyway, in a word, the market's high probability is not far from reversing. Protect the principal and wait patiently.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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