The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index "10 years 7 rises" institutions concentrated on the four major tracks of the cycle, military, bank, and new energy

24Sep

Our reporter Zhao Ziqiang Ren Shibi's apprenticeship reporter Liu Hui is about to end in the third quarter, and will usher in the National Day holiday. Investors' discussions on holdings of shares are also obviously heating up, paying close attention to the upcoming fourth quarter market. Most institutions interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter believe that the performance of listed companies is the core of the value of investment stocks. The operation of the long vacation before the long holiday is only a tactical level. The trend of A shares in the fourth quarter is generally optimistic. The continuous development of the policy promotes the continuous efforts of economic stable growth policy, and the implementation of economic measures is continuously deployed and implemented. At the end of July this year, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee's Political Bureau requested macro policies to actively act in expanding demand. The State Convention, which was held on August 31, pointed out that it is currently in a critical point of economic recovery, which is important to accelerate the release of policy efficiency. The State Frequently held on September 13th decided to further extend the period of repayment of the manufacturing taxation and help the enterprise to relieve the rescue; determine the update and transformation of the device for the special re -loan and fiscal discounting support, expand market demand, increase development strength; deployment deployment; deployment; Further stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment measures to help the economy consolidate and restore the foundation. The State Council held on September 21st, requiring to pay close attention to the implementation of policies and promote the stability of the economy; determine the policy of strengthening transportation, logistics, and support for the rescue of related market entities to support the stable economic operation. On September 19, the National Development and Reform Commission stated at the press conference that in terms of effective investment, it will give full play to the role of the coordination mechanism of important investment in effective investment, and take strong measures in accordance with the requirements of "funds and elements to follow the project" to improve the guarantee of factor protection. And efficiency, accelerate the first batch of 300 billion yuan policy development financial instruments to form a physical workload as soon as possible. In terms of promoting consumption, it is accelerating research and promotion of policies and measures, actively creating new consumption scenarios, and promoting consumption to accelerate recovery. In the report, Donghai Securities pointed out that in August, economic data, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has increased significantly, and the physical workload is accelerating. Driven by the 600 billion yuan policy development financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan special debt limit space, infrastructure will still play an important role of steady growth. After economic stability, endogenous growth momentum such as consumption may benefit from policy promotion and recovery of confidence to accelerate recovery. From the perspective of external factors, since March of this year, the US dollar has depreciated in the context of the strong dollar. The performance of the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable. The relevant indicators of the foreign exchange market reflected in the exchange rate expectations have been stable. According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the cross -border income and expenditure surplus of goods trade in August was 55.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 31%over July. At the same time, the net inflow under the direct investment of Lai China increased compared with July. The situation of domestic bonds and stock markets for investment in overseas investors continued to improve, highlighting the long -term investment value of my country's market and RMB assets. The net inflow of cross -border funds under the trade of goods continues to have a high scale, and foreign capital inflows such as direct investment and other channels have increased steadily. Yuekai Securities pointed out that the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate has decreased to the labor -intensive industry, such as home appliances, electronics, automobiles, power equipment, beauty care, machinery and equipment, textile and clothing, etc. The exchange rate changes are strongly correlated with the above -mentioned industries. The manufacturing industry also obtained the increase in bank loans. From January to August this year, the State Development Bank issued a total of 330 billion yuan in manufacturing loans. As of the end of August, the balance of manufacturing loans reached 1110 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8%over the end of last year. Essence The industrial economy has maintained a rapid growth, and a strong support for the steady growth of the national economy. On September 13, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "Report on the Economic and Social Development Achievements since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China" shows that in 2021, my country's industrial added value reached 37.3 The trillion yuan increased by 9.6%over the previous year, driving an economic growth of 3.1 percentage points, and the contribution rate to the growth of GDP (GDP) reached 38.1%. In August, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.2%year -on -year, with a previous value of 3.8%, the fastest growth rate since March, an increase of 0.32%month -on -month. Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.5%year -on -year, an acceleration of 1.1 percentage points from last month. The output of green smart products such as new energy vehicles, mobile communication base stations, and solar cells increased by 117.0%, 25.7%, and 21.6%year -on -year, respectively. In the past 10 years of the Shanghai Index in the past 10 years, the four -rising institutions are optimistic about the four circuits in the past 10 years. Refers to the number of deep certificates in the fourth quarter, the number of rises has increased, the number of declines is 4 times, and the chance of rising is 60%. Judging from the increase in the fourth quarter of the years, the increase in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in 2014, 2015, and 2012 ranked among the top three in the historical increase list, which rose by 36.84%, 15.93%, and 8.77%, respectively. Correspondingly, in 2018, 2013, and 2017, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 11.61%, 2.7%, and 1.25%respectively. From the data, it can be seen that the rise in the fourth quarter is far more than the decline.

Hua'an Securities said that with the implementation of some risk incidents and the rise of domestic economic elasticity, and the policies are positive, the A -share market also has the conditions for elastic rebounds: First, the economic overstepping in August has proved economic marginal improvement. September high -frequency data shows the economy showing the economy in September. Still in the process of restoration; the second is that the RMB exchange rate breaks 7 will not change the direction of domestic monetary policy and relaxed, reasonable and abundant; third, the promotion of the policy of maintaining the diplomatic relations has been effective, and the continuous efforts of the continuous growth of the continuous growth of growth; On September 22, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and overseas market preferences were expected to come to an end. Therefore, the recent adjustment is provided to provide good opportunities for the mid -term layout of hot tracks, and it is recommended to gradually increase the position every adjustment. How to seize investment opportunities in the fourth quarter? Many institutions analyze that the overall valuation of A shares is currently at a relatively low level. Most of the industry sectors have investment value. It is a relatively good configuration time. It is generally optimistic about the four tracks of cycles, military industry, banks, and new energy. The first is the cycle track. Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the Institute, told reporters that the cycle sector (coal, non -ferrous, chemical). The European energy crisis began to be transmitted to the midstream. High -electricity and energy prices have led to the suspension of production of some European factories, which in turn caused the global supply and demand to imbalance and triggered rising cyclical product prices. Followed by the military track. Chen Li said that in the context of continued overseas interest rates, global capital preferences will also change, and low valuations and high dividends assets will be more popular with funds, especially the military sector deserves attention. Under the complexity of the international situation, the importance of the military industry is even more highlighted. "From the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation of the military sector is at a relatively low historic position and has a lot of room for improvement. At the same time, considering the growth of the military sector, the expected expectations of the high growth of the military sector in the third quarter of this year still exist that it still exists. . "Liu Youhua, deputy director of the Wealth Research Department of Paiwang.com, said. The third is the bank track. Chen Li believes that from historical experience, bank stocks often perform well in the fourth quarter. At the same time, with the further implementation of real estate support policies, the risk transmission of real estate in the banking system has been gradually controlled. Under the current low valuation situation, the industry It is expected to usher in valuation repair. Finally, the new energy track. Liu Youhua said that with the continuous recovery of the market, the new energy sector valuation of the new energy sector is falling to a reasonable level. In the future, as the new energy sector continues to grow, the high -growth sector represented by new energy will still be affected by the market. The pursuit. Xingye Securities said that there are large differences in the short -term market, and they believe that the "new semi -army" may start a new round of upward in late October. From the perspective of space, after the shock differentiation in July and August, the "new half -army" crowdedness has fallen to a low position, and some segmented industries have reached the historical low. From time to time, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10 In the end of the month, the uncertainty at home and abroad gradually faded down; in addition, leading indicators also pointed to the "new semi -army". In late October, a new round of upward is opened, but the market is still in the short -term window of no -line, weak style. In the "New Half Army", you can take advantage of the three quarters of the layout and even the prosperity of next year: military industry (aviation engine), semiconductor (material, design), intelligent driving, energy storage, new energy. After the National Day, a large probability of A -share rising experts suggest that the historical data of high -quality stocks show that the rising probability of rising before the National Day is greater. In the past 10 years, the number of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has risen 3 times before the National Day, the number of declines is 7 times, and the chance of rising is 30%. The probability is 40%; the 5th Shanghai Stock Exchange Index of the 5 trading days after the National Day rose 7 times, the number of declines was 3 times, and the chance of rising was 70%; 90%. Liu Yan, chairman of Anjue Assets, said that the high probability of the A -share market in the 5 trading days around the National Day will continue the slightly fluctuating pattern. For ordinary short -term investors, the holidays are relatively safer; for mature investors or institutions with a relatively stable position style, the recent continuous downward trend has been released. The space for continuing large -scale downside is small, and the difference between shares or coins is not obvious. "From the perspective of historical data, the" currency holding "before the National Day is more cost -effective, and there are two advantages: First, it can effectively avoid the risks of uncertainty in overseas markets. During the long vacation, overseas markets are facing more might be possible to disturb the market. The market uncertain factors, some investors will choose the behavior sold before the holiday to avoid such risks; the second is to increase the use rate of funds. "Chen Li said. Liu Youhua believes that the market is at the bottom stage of the market that adheres to the stake in the holiday. The current market may set off a round of rebound at any time: on the one hand, the short momentum of A shares has been fully released, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike boots have also landed, and the transaction volume has Continuously sluggish, the market pessimism intensifies; on the other hand, the attractiveness of low valuation blue chip stocks has gradually increased, and the valuation of growth stocks has become reasonable. As the economy gradually recovers, low valuation blue chip stocks are expected to drive market rebounds. Regarding the holidays of the holiday, Yang Delong believes that the market fluctuations are short -term, and holding high -quality stocks is the best means to deal with market fluctuations. As the influence of the Fed ’s interest rate hike has gradually been digested by the market, the Chinese economy has gradually recovered, and the possibility of superposing the performance of leading companies in the third quarter of listing companies is more likely. Related varieties can focus on. Recommended reading

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Photo ｜ Bag Picture Network Station Cool Hero Production | Zhou Wenrui

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