64.8 billion Honey Snow Ice City, overestimated or underestimated?

@新 新 新

Author 丨 Bai Yan Editor 丨 Moon See

In 1997, Zhang Hongchao opened a cold drink store of less than 5 square meters on the Cultural Road in Zhengzhou City.

This is no different from the planing ice stalls in the streets and alleys at that time -the main product is shaved ice, the finished product consists of broken ice, syrup, raisins, peanuts, etc. The difference is that Zhang Hongchao chose the cheap route. In 2006, the torch and ice cream launched by Zhang Hongchao became the first super single product. Send 1 yuan coupon. This ice cream has become a benchmark for all signature products of Honey Snow Ice City in the future -the low -cost market for the short -priced and sinking routes, and the high -priced market for the head brand.

To this day, superkiner items have brought huge benefits to Mixue Bingcheng. The prospectus disclosed on September 22 shows that Mixue Bingcheng plans to issue no more than 4.01 million shares, and the price per share may exceed 162 yuan. If calculated at the issue price of 162 yuan per share, the total market value of Mixue Bingcheng is about 64.8 billion yuan.

Behind the halo of "National Drinks", what is the expansion path of Mixue Bingcheng? Is this affordable drink empire value of 64.8 billion market value?

Supplier Mi Xuebing City

Mixue Bingcheng is known for its "price butcher" in the current beverage market, but it is beyond the outside world that as of the end of the first quarter of this year, Mixue Bingcheng had a operating profit margin of 21.09%, and the gross profit margin reached 30.89%.

What does Mixue Bingcheng rely on low product prices while maintaining a low profit margin?

The answer includes the production of core raw materials, the huge number of franchise store orders, and the self -built logistics system, but there is an indispensable light capital model based on franchise stores.

In the general impression of consumers, the franchise brand must first run through the business model of the straight camp store, and then expand the franchise system in turn. In fact, Mi Xue Bingcheng did inherit this conventional path. From entrepreneurship in 1997 to 2006, there was only one direct -operated store in Zhang Hong's masterpiece, but the business was hot and the business covered drinks, ice cream and Chinese food. In 2007, Mi Xue Bingcheng opened the second store, and Zhang Hongchao's relatives became the first franchisee of Mixue Bingcheng.

In fact, according to the prospectus, the performance of Mixue Bingcheng directly operated stores is not better than franchise stores. At the same time, Mixue Bingcheng is controlling the number of direct stores in the core brand Mixue Bingcheng. From the end of 2020 to the end of March this year, the number of direct stores in Mixue Bingcheng decreased from 38 to 37, and the number of stores in the new brand lucky coffee increased from 2 to 7.

The business of Mixue Bingcheng is divided into six major sections, which are selling ingredients, packaging materials, equipment, operating materials, and others to franchisees. product. Of the six major businesses, only the gross profit margin of Zhican stores is -8.21%, and other businesses can maintain positive gross profit margins. Henan Mixue Bingcheng Beverage Co., Ltd., a wholly -owned subsidiary of Mixue Bingcheng, is responsible for the operation of the straight camp store. Last year, the loss of 17.14 million yuan was swallowed last year. In the first quarter of this year, Henan Mixue swallowed again 7 million yuan in losses.

For the reason, Mixue Bingcheng relies on providing ingredients such as ingredients, packaging materials and other products to franchisees. Among them, the sales of ingredients with a revenue of 72%and a gross profit margin of 30.91%are the core. Franchisee's milk tea powder, fruit, jam, tea, etc. The direct -operated stores have undertaken non -core business such as new product tests and peripheral commodity sales. At the same time, the location strategy of the core business district has raised the rental cost of the store, which may have an impact on the profitability of direct stores.

Among the store opening costs of milk tea shops, the core is store rents and decoration costs. The franchise model allows Mixue Bingcheng to avoid high store operation costs and focus on selling core business such as ingredients.

资产负债表同样透露了蜜雪冰城的轻资本模式，截至今年一季度末，蜜雪冰城的资产总额为75.9亿元，其中固定资产9.4亿元，占总资产比重为12.38%，其中包括560 million yuan of houses and buildings, as well as 410 million yuan of machinery and equipment. In addition, Mixue Bingcheng still has 134 million yuan under construction. In contrast, the company's inventory is as high as 1.416 billion yuan.

The essence of joining is a risk outsourcing. Miyuki Bingcheng has driven a small number of direct stores to drive the strategy of a large number of franchise stores, master the stable business of ingredients and consumables in the brand system, and charge franchisees to franchise, training, management and other expenses to ensure the brand's stable profitability.

How much is Mixue Bingcheng worth?

In the consumer market, the image of Mixue Bingcheng is the low -end existing drinks, including some products such as lemonade, green tea, and black tea. The bottle beverage industry is aligned, and the price of milk cover tea and milk tea also remains around 10 yuan. In consumer impression, Mixue Bingcheng is closer to the low -profile version of the current bottle -made beverages or happy tea, Naixue tea and other brands.

However, from the perspective of the business model, the core income of Mixue Bingcheng comes from franchisees instead of consumer consumers. The core product is also initially processed milk tea powder, fruits, jam, etc., instead of the finished product. In the prospectus, Mi Xue Bingcheng chose the tea, Ruixing Coffee, and the food brand Yiming Food, Barbie Food, Food Food, and Huanghuanghuang for comparison. There is no comparable company that does not produce drinks and current ice cream, and the business model of joining food brands is closer to the operating model of Honey Snow Ice City. In contrast, Naixue and Ruixing, who use the direct -operated model, are more different from Mixue Bingcheng in financial indicators. Taking the gross profit margin indicators as an example, in 2021, the gross profit margin of Naixue's tea and Ruixing Coffee respectively respectively. It is 67.4%and 59.8%, while the same period of the same period of Miyuki Ice City is only 31.73%, but from the perspective of revenue, Naixue's tea in 2021 is only 4.297 billion yuan, Ruixing coffee is 7.965 billion yuan, and Mixue Bingcheng City When it reaches 10.351 billion yuan, the logic behind it is to deeply sink the market and lower product pricing provides a large number of franchise stores for Mixue Bingcheng. Although the unit price and profit level of the product are far less than high -end direct -operated brands, the Mixue Bingcheng City’s The business foundation is greater.

If the business of Mixue Bingcheng is split, it can be divided into three parts:

1. The ingredients, packaging materials, equipment and facilities, operating materials and other products sold to franchisees. The gross profit margin of this part of this business ranges from 14.8%to 31.55%, which is the core business of Mixue Bingcheng. "New Entropy" believes that, in addition to comparing the listed company of food brands, the number of suppliers behind the current beverage industry such as Jiahe Food and Sanyo Biology can also be used as comparable to this part of the business. The former is unified and Xiangpiao Floating, Wahaha, COCO, 85 ° C, and even Mixue Ice City suppliers, the latter is the world's largest producer of red moss glycol. Honey Xue Bingcheng, like these two, hopes to improve production technology and optimize production costs, and reduce costs by focusing on full products and improve the competitiveness of finished products.

2. Franchisee management business. This part of the business has 83.43%of the ultra -high gross profit margin, including franchise fees, management fees, training fees and other income, but the overall volume is not high. This part can be compared to joining the food brand listed company.

3. Direct -operated store business. This part of the business is currently negative. It has more functions to bear the education, marketing publicity and other functions of the Honey Snow Bingcheng brand. It is essentially different from that of directly -operated drinks such as Naixue and Ruixing. It is deemed to be sales expenses.

In the domestic market, Juewei Food and Mixue Bingcheng belong to the "Thousands of Stores" and above. The semi -annual report of Juewei Food shows that as of the end of June this year, the total number of stores in mainland China was 14,921. In 1207, as of the end of March this year, the number of stores in Mixue Bingcheng has reached 21,582, and the store has increased by 1,596 in the first quarter. From the perspective of revenue growth, in 2021, the revenue of unique food achieved revenue of 6.549 billion yuan, an increase of 24.12%year -on -year; and the revenue of Mixue Bingcheng was 10.3 billion yuan at the same time, a year -on -year growth rate of 121.18%. From the perspective of profitability, the net interest rate of uniform food in 2021 was 14.77%, while the same period of the same period was 18.45%.

From the perspective of the price -earnings ratio, the average PE (TTM) in the past five years is 40.89 times. Based on this, the valuation of Mixue Bingcheng is about 104.9 billion yuan. Considering the number of stores, profitability, and revenue of Mixue Bingcheng The growth rate is higher than that of the flavored food, and this valuation still has room for upward growth.

Where is the incremental increase in Mixue Bingcheng?

On January 17, 2020, Ruixing Coffee came to the highest market value of 51.38 US dollars in history, equivalent to nearly 90 billion yuan. And this time the GEM IPO, Mi Xue Bingcheng is expected to surpass the peak period, Ruixing, and impacts the peak of domestic tea brands.

But this does not mean that the pillow is not worried. In this prospectus, Mixue Bingcheng provided four special risk factors, namely food safety risks, franchise store management risks, market competition risks and epidemic impact risks.

Taking market competition risks as an example, the overall trend of the current milk tea market is to extend the upstream supply chain, reduce operating costs to fight against raw material prices and increase in store rental prices, and the saved profit space is put into the downstream market competition. Since the beginning of this year, Xicha has released a "preservation statement" below 30 yuan and the proposal to advocate authentic milk planting. Mid -low -end beverage brands.

On the side of the franchisee, Mi Xue Bingcheng is also encountering resistance. In the first quarter of this year, the store opening speed of Mixue Bingcheng joined the store slowed down. In 2021, the store stores increased by more than 7,000. According to the number of new stores in the first quarter of this year, the number of stores opened by Mixue Bingcheng all year round About 6,400. While creating a miracle of 20,000 stores, the expansion space of Mixue Bingcheng is inevitably falling into saturation. The franchisee of Mixue Bingcheng complained that the franchisee is essentially the workers of Mixue Bingcheng. The new products of Mixue Bingcheng face the problem of shortage of raw materials and decline in quality. As the market competition gradually becomes fierce, the store density is approaching saturated. The franchisee "is a blessing for losing money."

From 2020 to 2021, the revenue growth rate of Mixue Bingcheng rose from 82.38%to 121.18%, and the profit growth rate soared from 58.52%to 172.22%. The brand is in a period of rapid growth. However, in terms of specific products, the core logic of Mixue Bingcheng is a super single product. Although the prospectus has not disclosed the revenue rules of the specific product, from the sales of the takeaway platform, the low -priced items represented by ice fresh lemonade are undoubtedly undoubted Main product of Mixue Bingcheng. By expanding the sales of the terminal at the terminal, Mixue Bingcheng can obtain a larger -scale food raw material order, which is conducive to the brand to expand production capacity through large -scale supply or increase the price of suppliers to reduce production/procurement costs, but in the past The products and brand matrix other than the super single product expanded, and Mi Xuebing City did not go smoothly. Take the coffee chain brand lucky coffee as an example. As of the end of March this year, the number of lucky coffee stores has only 629. Although the growth rate has increased significantly compared with last year, the volume of 20,000 stores in the main brand Mixue Ice City is still alive. Farly; the ice cream brand Jiratu has increased from 6 to 18 from 6 to the end of March 2019 to the end of March this year, which can be described as slow.

The prospectus shows that this time the IPO of the GEM, Mixue Bingcheng plans to raise 6.496 billion yuan, of which about 45%are used for production capacity construction, about 17%are used for logistics construction, and about 30%invest in supplementary funds, about 1.58% Invest in the research and development center project. This further echoes the core business logic of Mixue Bingcheng -at the same time to make large -scale terminal super items and upstream supply chain capabilities, and obtain higher profits through compressed supply chain costs. On this basis, Mixue Bingcheng has no driving force for the brand's active consumption upgrade -the more it seizes the sinking market with a broad potential, the brand's super cheap items+super production capacity strategies can contribute more profits.

However, with the slowdown of the industry's growth rate, the current tea industry has shifted to product force driving, and R & D accelerates, and super single products also face the top of growth. How to continue the competitive advantage in the industry in the industry, Mixue Bingcheng still has a longer way to go.

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