Daily discussion of gold | Raising interest rate hikes and pressure, gold bulls still have not succumbed to

Guest: Gold Investment Analyst Zhang Bo

On the week of June 13, the spot gold price once again experienced the roller coaster, hitting a maximum of $ 1880/ounce, a minimum of US $ 1805/ounce, and receiving $ 1840/ounce. The reason for the fierce fluctuations of gold prices is mainly because the Federal Reserve controls high inflation, and has raised 75 basis points at one time.

The Fed announced last week to raise interest rates to 75 basis points to fight inflation, and a single rate hike hit a new high since 1994. Powell said that the Fed may conduct a large rate of interest rate hikes next month to control the level of inflation, and at the same time emphasizes that there is no sign of indicating the decline of the economy, which will cause great pressure on the short -term upward trend of gold.

But is this really the case? The latest data shows that the price of the United States in May exceeded the expected increase again, and the consumer price index (CPI) has reached 8.6%. The rate hikes have been unable to cope with the continuous deterioration of the United States. At this time, there was no retreat, and he had to curb inflation at the expense of the economy.

According to the latest economic prediction data released by New Reserve DSGE model, the chance of the US economy is only 10%of the risk of soft landing, and the possibility of hard landing is 80%. In addition, the latest statistics of global economic growth have been reduced by 1.1%again.

Judging from comprehensive analysis, with the successive arrival of the interest rate hike cycle such as the United States and Europe, and the sharp reduction of global economic growth expectations, the global asset bubbles caused by the global water release in the past three years have been at stake. The current international financial capital is obviously obviously obvious. Quickly evacuated in risk assets, and risk assets, including the US -Europe stock market and the cryptocurrency market, have entered the stage of squeezing bubble.

It is foreseeable that with the further expansion of the risk of the US and European stock markets, the risk aversion of the global financial market will be heated again. For gold with risk aversion, it will undoubtedly be favored by the market again and becomes an invisible asset allocation of investors. The lack of part.

From a technical point of view, gold continues to pay attention to the situation of $ 1850/ounce this week. If it is effective, look at the pressure near $ 1890/ounce. Follow the support of $ 1825/ounce to $ 1815/ounce.

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