Holding gold assets, malignant inflation and shrinkage can resist!

In 2022, how can we still face a century -old change in the world. How can we face unprecedented challenges at the crossroads?

On September 21, at the "Creative Change 2022 · China (Beijing) International Gold Investment Forum", the chief market strategist of the World Gold Association (North America) Joseph Cavatoni and Daofu Global Executive Vice President and Global Chief Investment Officer Luo Luo Lori Heine focuses on potential recession risks and its impact on global asset allocation.

▲ Joseph Cavatoni (left) (left) (left) and Daofu Global Executive Vice President and Global Chief Investment Officer Lori Heinel (right) and Taoist

The causes and influences behind the inverted of the annual yield curve, the awareness of monetary policy and long -term inflation, and the impact of potential risk points under the uncertain factors of the world on the investment portfolio in depth on the influence of the investment portfolio.

1

3 ~ 10 -year yield inversion is more worthy of attention

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▲ Joseph Cavatoni, chief market strategist of the World Gold Association (North America)

Kang Qiao: The 2 to 10 -year yield curve inverted is often a signal of recession for investors. What do you think about this?

▲ Lori Heinel, Vice President and Global Chief Investment Officer of Daofu Global, Lori Heinel

Lali Herne: The inverted 2 to 10 -year yield is indeed a key indicator, usually a signal of recession, as well as in the United States. But now it is more concerned about the 3 to 10 -year yield inversion, and the Fed will take corresponding measures in the short term. When the signs of recession are the most obvious, the Fed will start.

2

Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike restricting economic activities

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Kang Qiao: After observing the emotions of investors, I feel more and more that the curve inverted may not be the cause, but a behavioral effect, so you refer to a shorter -short -term, in a more sensitive investment environment, you can let everyone let everyone allow everyone Is the risk of perception economic recession?

Lori Jerry: This is indeed the case. At present, the 2 -year yield is similar to the market impulse you described. When the Fed raises interest rates, economic activities will be restricted, so we will start to pay attention to the short -term trend because this is an indicator of policy formulation, not the market's response to policy formulation.

3

The United States may face technical recession

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Kang Qiao: In fact, the interest rate change eventually triggered these signals, not the change of investment emotions. How much is the risk of recession faster and earlier than the US market earlier than the US market?

Lori Johr: This problem is very interesting, because in a sense, the US economy is actually in a decline, but from the perspective of the American economy, the United States must not feel the recession, and it is still very strong. Employment growth. For example, the performance of recent employment data, consumer emotions and business emotions are still normal.

Therefore, maybe we can now say that the United States has fallen into a technical recession or is about to face technical recession, but there is still a essential difference between technical recession and actual recession. From the perspective of actual recession, Europe is more vulnerable. Of course, Europe currently has concerns about geopolitics, concerns about inflation pressure, inflation in many parts of Europe is still rising, and production and other factors have made Europe more vulnerable, especially in the second half of this year to early next year.

4

Gold ETF sensitive reflects market emotions

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Kang Qiao: Therefore, European risks are higher. From the perspective of market emotions and people's behavior, it is very sensitive to commodity prices and energy prices, which also fully explains why physical property may affect the investment environment in Europe.

In fact, this can also be seen from the relevant data of gold positioning. For example, the market in Europe's Gold ETF (Exchange Trading Fund) market is relatively stable, while the American Gold ETF investors are more seeking opportunities in the market trend. The US Gold ETF positioning is reduced, perhaps because the US dollar is strong, or the US Treasury bonds may be US Treasury bonds. The reason for the rise in yields may be due to the transfer of bond funds.

Lori Johl: There are several factors that will lead to this. One of them that cannot be ignored is the actual interest rate level. Compared with the United States, the relative interest rate is still very low. Therefore The opportunity cost is also different.

5

The Federal Reserve Hawks may be too late

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Kang Qiao: So how does Dao Fluria view monetary policy and long -term inflation?

Lori Jerry: We believe that the Fed has lagged behind for more than a year and the pressure of inflation in 2021 has risen. We judge that inflation is unlikely to be as expected as the Federal Reserve. It turns out that this is very foreseeable. On the contrary, the Fed's current approach may be too hawk.

In view of the fact that the Fed's policy usually takes 8-10 months to truly reflect it in the real economy, there have been some signs of slowing down, such as manufacturing and real estate, observed from business indicators that people are not as confident as before. Therefore, it is important to always pay attention to when the Fed will give up its eagle position. At the annual meeting of the Global Central Bank, the Federal Reserve President Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve must fight against inflation. We are more worried that the Federal Reserve's radicals may be too violent and late.

6

The impact of the epidemic is getting smaller and smaller

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Kang Qiao: It is possible that this is one of the extremely difficult situations I have experienced in the 30 years. What do you think of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic and its chain reaction, does the epidemic affect your modeling and judgment? Is this more complicated for the Fed? Lori Jerry: It cannot ignore the impact of the epidemic, because the epidemic is still continuing, but the impact of the epidemic on people's actual life is becoming smaller and smaller. The systemic influence brought by other issues that we also care about, especially geopolitical events.

7

Gold assets or can be maintained in any environment

Kang Qiao: This is a very interesting point of view. In fact, we have always emphasized that many long -term risks still exist in the annual and mid -year outlook. Due to the impact of the epidemic and a series of changes in human society, these risks have become even more severe Essence

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The question is how to manage these risks in the current environment. So how should people consider their own status quo in terms of asset allocation? When the investment environment and asset allocation become more complicated, does the physical asset play a role? Faced with the risks we are worried about, are there any other suggestions or ideas?

Lali Jerry: When it is not a bigger asset allocation, we are currently dealing with various possible results, so our position adjustment is more flexible. At present, we slightly reduce stocks and are optimistic about fixed income, but due to the uncertainty of the overall profit prospects, it is more concerned about the adjustment of the asset category. For example, re -adjust the investment portfolio, and the national bonds are preferred instead of credit assets, because government bonds are put on the economy to put the economy on the economy. Slowness is more sensitive, and economic slowdown is more likely to occur.

However, due to the expansion of the spread, we slowed down credit reduction compared to a few months ago. In this environment, you need to consider some marginal quantities, which is your views on physical assets, even gold and other assets. It is necessary to ensure the diversification of property in the current environment, and to hold assets that can cope with different types of impact.

Real estate is a good example. Looking at the fundamentals of real estate may not be dazzling, but from another perspective, physical assets include real estate, often performing better in high inflation environments. Therefore, you can configure a little physical asset in the investment portfolio to hedge the continuous high inflation, and gold can maintain one of the strong assets in any environment. It can effectively resist the malignant inflation environment. surroundings.

8

The dollar is seeing the top gold

Kang Qiao: We have been emphasizing the ability to suppress downward risks, and the impact of predicting investment portfolios. When you predict that the asset group will encounter impact, gold is the bumper weakening the impact, so far the effect is excellent. Although the gold that is priced in the US dollar is still a negative return, it is still the third best assets that have shown the third performance of the year.

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Lali Jerry: When the US dollar performs well, it will inevitably put pressure on another product or physical asset product (such as gold) that is priced at the dollar. Therefore, this phenomenon is not surprising. But if it is a market outside the United States, this hedging value is not necessarily so negative. In fact, we believe that the US dollar is seeing the top, and when the trend of the US dollar turns, more situations need to be observed, and also provide better opportunities for assets like gold.

9

There will be no long -term decline

Kang Qiao: About risks and opportunities, what are the three things that people should pay attention to in the next year?

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Lolly Hurry: It is important to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and the global central bank policies, as well as the consequences of unanimously maintained the eagle position. Decreasing liquidity will cause trouble in high interest rates, high loan costs, and credit conditions in the short term. People need to pay attention to this, and then follow the trajectory of economic development.

In the past few years, the cycle has become shorter, and such a short cycle has caused the person to be tortured. Therefore, we believe that the long -term decline of the depth will not occur, and the decline may be just a short period. You can seize this opportunity to get rid of the predicament, because by 2023 or 2024, the inflation problem may continue and become prominent, and the inflation rate is unlikely to continue at a high level of 8%, 9%or 10%, because the inflation rate is too high. It will fall on our own, but we expect that we will not return to the inflation environment below 2%.

Therefore, it is necessary to ensure that there are certain inflation protection in the environment of 2.5%or 3%. The last factor to pay attention to is geopolitics and focus on changing domestic and international situation.

10

In the investment portfolio, the gold ratio is increasing

Kang Qiao: China has the largest gold market in the world with huge volume. It is expected that with China's proper response to the epidemic and achieve economic recovery, the good situation will continue, and the demand for gold will also increase. The increase in the proportion of gold in the investment portfolio is a new trend that has appeared in the past year. Gold is getting rid of only the label of consumer assets or jewelry, and transformed into a wider type of asset type.

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Lori Jerry: China still has the world's largest middle -class group, so China's domestic market has amazing consumption power and investment needs.

Kang Qiao: Yes. Thank you very much for sharing so many wonderful views with us today. Before the end, do you have any other hope to say to everyone?

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