S & P Global Market Caizhi Metal Kevin Murphy: Global Exploration Fund Budget Entering a decline

"It is estimated that in 2023, the global exploration market budget fund investment will drop slightly, and the decline is expected to be from 5%to 10%." At the "Analysis of the Situation of Mineral Products" on September 21, 2022, Kevin Murphy, chief analyst of the S & P Global Market Cai, Metal and Mining Research Team In the speech of 2022 to 2023 ", the above view was published.

"Compared with 2021, although the global exploration market capital investment in the first half of 2022 still increases slightly, the growth rate has begun to fall in the case of global inflation, economic recession, and metal prices. The reason is that the budget of the exploration funds was made at the end of the last year. Therefore, it is expected that in 2023, the global exploration market budget fund investment will drop slightly, and the decline is expected to be in the range of 5%to 10%, "said Kevin.

Kevin reviewed the development trajectory of the global exploration market from 1996 to 2022. Among them, 2012 was the highest peak of the total budget of the global non -ferrous metal exploration funds, and then began to decline. After reaching the bottom in 2016, it began to rise. However, due to the influence of the global new crown epidemic in 2020, the budget began to fall slightly. Although the total amount of budgets in 2021 rose to $ 11.2 billion, compared with the peak of the 2012 budget, it decreased by 45%.

From the perspectives of various types of metal budgets, exploration companies, exploration areas, and exploration stages, Kevin introduced the changes in global exploration investment.

In the budgets of various metals from 2020 to 2021, gold's exploration budget was the most, reaching $ 6.2 billion, accounting for 45%of all mineral exploration budgets. Although lithium and cobalt belong to the new energy "star" metal, it has affected the exploration budget due to weak prices from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021. However, in 2022, the budgets of these two metals may increase, and the budget of lithium exploration funds may double.

According to analysis of the type of exploration company, in history, small companies are the main force of exploration, but in recent years, large companies have begun to become the main force of exploration. In 2021, large companies' exploration budget accounted for 50%of the overall exploration budget, and 32%of small company exploration budgets accounted for 32%.

According to the analysis of the exploration budget according to geographical division, the investment budget investment in Latin America has the most budget, accounting for 25%of global exploration funds in 2020, and 24%in 2021. Canadian exploration budget has increased the greatest, from 16%in 2020 to 19%in 2021. Africa's exploration budget dropped from 12%in 2020 to 10%in 2021. In particular, some important mining countries in Africa, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo Democratic Republic's exploration funds, decreased by 7%.

According to the development phase, grassroots exploration shows a long -term decline, and the exploration of mining area has increased significantly. The reason may be that during the epidemic, grassroots exploration needs to cross the state or national border, and the concentrated exploration of mining areas is easier. But in 2021, grassroots exploration recovered.

Kevin focused on the exploration of copper. In the past 15 years, although the global copper exploration budget has continued to increase sharply, the newly discovered copper ore beds have fallen off the cliff -like decline. Kevin predicts that global copper output will decline from 2026 to 2030. One is that one is the mines in operation, and the quality of copper ore will decrease; the second is that some mine resources will be exhausted; the third is that there are no new mine capacity in the short term and there are no new mine capacity in the short term. join in.

In the first half of 2022, the global exploration start was good, but due to the impact of global inflation, economic recession, and the decline of metal prices, there was still a variable in the execution of the exploration funds in the second half of 2022. Therefore, it is likely to be a watershed at the end of 2022 and will affect the entire exploration fund budget of 2023.

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