"Starting 10 pounds", "free packing" ... The price of sea transportation has fallen to a new low during the year!

China News Service, September 24 (China New Finance reporter Xie Yiguan) "China sent the United States, starts 10 pounds of sea transport, free boxing, 14 yuan/jin", "China send Malaysia, 20 pounds 46 yuan, tax" "China's collection to Canada, the freight is as low as 15 yuan per kilogram" ...

Many people may notice that the recent price of sea transport has fallen to a new low in the year. Last year, the international sea transportation of "difficult to find" and the price "soaring", why did it suddenly come down this year?

Data map: Ningbo Zhoushan Port. Tang Jiankai Photo

The freight price has fallen by more than 60% from last year's high point

China New Finance reporters sorted out the freight index of multiple export containers in China and found that the freight rate continued to decline in the second half of the year after a wave of declines in the first half of the year.

On September 16, the Shanghai Export Container freight index (SCFI) was 2312.65 points, a decrease of 9.7%from the previous period, and it has fallen for 14 consecutive weeks. The main routes of the main routes have fallen. Among them, the United States and Western, Persian Gulf, Mediterranean, and South American routes have fallen sharply, and the weekly declines are 12.5%, 16.8%, 10.5%and 11.7%.

In addition, the FreightOS Baltic Index (FBX) shows that on September 21, the global container freight was $ 4179/Feu. On September 13, 2021, the global container freight rate once soared to $ 11134.44/Feu. This also means that the current freight rate has fallen by more than 62.5%compared with last year, from the perspective of the chart, it is equivalent to the freight rate in January 2021.

The staff of a Tianjin International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. gave a 40 -foot bonus box to the west coast of the United States. At the beginning of the year, the shipping cost was about 10,000 yuan. Now it only costs about 3,000 yuan. Essence At the highest point last year, it was 12,000 to 14,000 yuan.

"Although the price has dropped sharply, the current price has not reached the level before the epidemic. Before the epidemic, the same standard box, the shipping cost only costs 1500 yuan." The staff member said.

In July, Yangshan Deepwater Port's container throughput exceeded 2.1 million standard boxes. Figures of Yangshan Border Inspection Station

Why is the price of sea transport sitting on the "slide"?

In 2021, due to the interruption of the supply chain, the backlog of the port, and the surge in the goods, international importers scrambled to seize the space of container ships, and the international freight soared, and a number of shipping companies made "a lot of money." At the beginning of the year, the news of the "monthly salary of 40 monthly monthly awards at the Evergreen Sea Games" made people say "too much".

However, Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the International Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said, "From 2020 to 2021, the price of freight is unprecedented, which is not a long -term continuous phenomenon. It is only a matter of time."

"This year's freight rate can be reduced rapidly, on the one hand, because of the rapid growth of capacity. On the other hand, factors such as the monetary policy of multinational monetary policies and the Russian and Ukraine conflict push the pressure of inflation to the level beyond expected, and commodity demand appears. Decrease. "Mei Xinyu said to Zhongxin Financial reporter.

"Starting from the Federal Reserve, the western government has tightened the range and speed of monetary policy this year exceeded expectations. The tightened monetary policy superimposed geopolitical factors, international trade growth is expected to weaken, but transportation power is increasing. In this case, shipping costs have decreased. It's reasonable. "Mei Xinyu added.

Data show that the price index of imported goods in the United States (excluding oil and petroleum products) grows negatively for three consecutive months in May to July. The amount of imported goods in the United States decreased from the previous month from June to July. The US Retail Federation (NRF) has lowered the prediction of US demand in the second half of the year. It is expected that the total retail goods that arrive in large US ports will be about 12.8 million Teu, a year -on -year decrease of 1.5%.

The "era of huge profits" of sea transportation comes to an end?

Although the shipping costs are lower, because the freight rate is still at a high level, the shipping enterprise continues to "rich oil" in the first half of the year. ", Crushed a lot of listed companies.

Screenshot of COSCO Maritime Half -annual report.

However, a recent report from the HSBC Global Research Center predicts that container shipping will experience an inevitable downward cycle from 2023 to 2024, and profits will plummet 80%.

A number of institutions including HSBC predict that the disorder of the decline in global container trade and the increase in shipping capacity will promote the further decline in freight. In Mei Xinyu's view, the price decline of sea transportation during this time was a bit too strong. With the changes in the situation during the year, the freight may still fluctuate. "In addition, as the passage is up, the freight price may rebound. In the long run, the power demand still has growth potential."

Not long ago, the Suez Canal Administration of Egypt issued a statement that the ship's shipping fee of the Suez Canal will be raised in January 2023. The traffic of cruise ships and transportation ships will be increased by 10%, and the remaining ships will increase by 15%. The Suez Canal is located in the junction of Europe, Asia, and Africa, and is one of the most frequent channels in the world.

According to foreign media reports, with the recent deadlocking of the Western Coastal Port Labor negotiations, many importers are transferring the goods from the west coast from a longer and more expensive route to the east coast and the port along the Gulf of Mexico. The surge in goods has caused congestion at the docks and ships at several ports.

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