After a lapse of 24 years, Japan is the first time!

since this year

The yen continues to depreciate

Due to the violent fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate in the US dollar, the Ministry of Finance of Japan announced on the 22nd that it would intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent the yen from further depreciating. This is the first time that the Japanese government has intervened in the foreign exchange market since June 1998.

The day before, the Federal Reserve Committee announced on the 21st that it would raise 75 basis points again, and hinted that interest rate hikes may continue until next year. Affected by this, on the 22nd, the exchanges against the US dollar on the 22nd were softened on the US dollar exchange rate.

On September 2 this year, an electronic display of the US dollar exchange rate information in a yen in Tokyo, Japan. The yen's exchange rate against the US dollar fell below 140 yen and against 1 US dollars on the same day, a new low in 24 years. Source: Xinhua News Agency

01

Japanese Prime Minister rarely speaks: highly vigilant

According to CCTV news reports, on the 22nd, the Japanese Prime Minister Kishida said when visiting the New York Stock Exchange that the Japanese government will closely monitor market fluctuations with a "high degree of vigilance". Once the yen has "excessive flow" due to speculation, the government It will intervene again if necessary.

"Once the fluctuations are too large, we will take necessary measures decisively," he said.

According to Reuters, the Prime Minister of Japan is not common for the development of exchange rate trends. Kishida's remarks show that the Japanese government is determined to curb the rapid decline in the yen, so as not to increase the pressure on Japanese families and retailers due to the continuous rise in imported raw materials and fuel prices.

Just a few hours before Kishida's voice, the late night of Tokyo time on the 22nd, the Japanese government had intervened and bought a large yen to boost the exchange rate.

After the government's shot, the yen appreciated slightly, and the US dollar against the yen fell more than 2%, to about 1 to 140.3. However, as of 7:16 on the 23rd of Beijing time, the exchange rate returned to the level of $ 1 against 142.36 yen.

The Researcher Ito Basic Institute of Nature Basic Research Institute said that the Bank of Japan adheres to the super loose monetary policy to become the focus of the market and put the Japanese yen with greater downward pressure. The measures to interfere with the exchange rate of the Japanese government can be observed.

It is reported that Japan's last direct intervention allowed the yen to appreciate during the 1998 Asian financial crisis. At that time, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar reached about 146 yen, which pose a threat to the Japanese economy.

02

"Third in the world" is in danger?

Affected by the continued depreciation of the yen, Japan's total GDP for USD has fallen back 30 years ago.

A few days ago, the "Japan Economic News" quoted the forecast of the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization (OECD) that Japan's nominal GDP this year is expected to be 553 trillion yen, and the total amount of USD is 3.9 trillion US dollars. Roughly equivalent. Japan's economic scale may be less than $ 4 trillion since 1992. If the yen continues to depreciate or hovers low, the scale of Japan's GDP next year will still be less than $ 4 trillion.

It is reported that in the 42 years from 1968 to 2009, Japan ranked second in GDP rankings around the world, second only to the United States. In 2010, the total number of GDPs in China surpassed Japan, and Japan has maintained the third place in the world in the following 12 years.

Japanese economic analyst, Tobain, believes that at present, Japan's GDP ranks third in the ranking. Judging from the global GDP ranking in 2021, the third -ranking Japan is only 17%with the economic scale of Germany.

He said that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates in the second half of 2022, while the Bank of Japan has maintained a loose monetary policy. In this case, the future depreciation of the yen and the appreciation of the euro will continue. If the yen depreciates more than 1 euro against the key point of 150 yen, Japan's GDP will fall to the fourth place in the world will become a reality. At present, the total population of Germany is about 83.88 million, and the total population of Japan is about 1255.8 million. If the per capita GDP is compared, Germany has nearly $ 15,000 in Japan.

Honorary professor of Japanese University of Japan, Nodaguchi Yoshiko, pointed out: "The depreciation of the yen will reduce 'national strength'. Japan will be difficult to attract talents from overseas, and economic growth will be blocked."

03

Japan's core CPI increase innovation high

Since the beginning of this year, the price of oil and gas has risen, and the depreciation of the yen has caused a serious impact on Japanese companies and people's livelihood. Many companies cannot pass the increase in costs to prices, making operations extremely difficult.

The results of trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance in Japan on September 15 showed that due to the sharp depreciation of imported goods prices, Japan has depreciated sharply, and Japan has developed a trade deficit for 13 consecutive months. The trade deficit in August reached 2.82 trillion yen, a record high.

On July 29, Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan. Source: Xinhua News Agency

Statistics of Empire Data Banking show that in August 2022, there were 7 incidents of direct or indirect factors such as the increase in import costs caused by the increase in import costs, which caused 7 incidents of corporate bankruptcy. The number of single month exceeded 2021. From the perspective of the industry, foods, fiber products, mechanical part manufacturing and wholesale industries are the most seriously affected by the devaluation of the yen.

The results of the survey showed that about 80 % of the enterprises really felt the increase in costs caused by the sharp depreciation of the yen. In addition to fuel costs and electricity bills, as many as 20,000 kinds of food and building materials such as food and building materials are also rising.

The rise in raw material prices directly led to a sharp increase in living pressure in residents. According to data from the General Affairs of Japan, the CPI in Tokyo in August was 102.4, an increase of 2.6%year -on -year, and the increase was the maximum value since October 2014.

04

Why does the yen continue to depreciate?

According to the China News Network, Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that the main reasons for the recent exchanges of the yen against the US dollar have depreciated sharply:

First, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes have led to the rapid expansion of the long -term spread of the United States and Japan;

Second, for the considering independence of domestic monetary policy, the Bank of Japan has not followed the Federal Reserve;

Third, the rising global commodity prices caused by the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict have pushed up Japan's import costs, which led to rising the trade deficit in Japan to a historic peak. Compared with other emerging market countries, the significant depreciation of the yen's exchange rate to the US dollar is not due to an uncontrollable large -scale short -term capital outflow in China.

In addition, Chen Yan, Executive Dean of the Chinese Institute of Research in Japan, said in an interview on the 22nd that the weakening of the yen means that its economic index denominated by the US dollar is under pressure, such as the GDP of domestic production, which will shrink sharply.

Japan wants to enhance national strength and restore economic prosperity to change from two aspects: one is to innovate the administrative system; the other is to carry out technological innovation, promote the development of high value -added industries, focus on innovation breakthroughs in high -tech fields, guide the strengthening of the yen to strengthen Essence

Source: Comprehensive from Xinhua News Agency, China News Network, Global Times, CCTV Finance, Daily Economic News, etc.

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