The first anniversary of the south to look back: Why is it unexpectedly hot

21st Century Business Herald reporter Chen Zhi Shanghai report

On September 24, the "South Tongtong" officially launched an anniversary.

Compared with the "Northbound" of Bond Tong, the market has attracted much attention from the market, and the south to the south is relatively low -key. But in the past four months, it has been favored by more and more mainland capital.

According to the data released by the Shanghai Clearance Institute, as of the end of July this year, the "southbound" bonds hosted through the financial infrastructure interconnection model reached 339 bonds, and the investment balance reached 224.11 billion yuan; There are 87 and 29.67 billion yuan.

Huang Jiacheng, the general managing director of Jingshun and the fixed income director of the Asia -Pacific region, revealed to the reporter that since May, the reason why Nanxiangtong has suddenly received a large number of mainland funds is the main reason is that the continuous differentiation of the Sino -US monetary policy has led to the expansion of the spread between China and the United States, which has caused the spread of the spread of China and the United States, causing triggering The yield of the Hong Kong US dollar valuation bonds is higher than that of the Mainland RMB bond yield, attracting mainland funds to invest bonds in the Hong Kong market through the southbound market.

A person in charge of a domestic bond investment private equity institution revealed to reporters that in the case of the Fed's continued interest rate hike, the current one -year and two -year China -US spreads reached 229 basis points and 210 basis points, which attracted them to Zheng Zhengzheng Continue to increase the wealth management products of the south-Hong Kong-US dollar denomination bonds issued by the banks issued by domestic banks.

"We call this operation internally as reverse arbitrage. In the case of underlying the same credit risk, we can obtain not only the US dollar appreciation exchange income, but also to obtain higher interest benefits." He told reporters.

It is worth noting that with the fierce southbound Tongtong, the financial market has begun to have higher expectations for optimization of the southbound transaction system.

First of all, after the southward line at the end of July exceeded 220 billion yuan, the market was worried that the southbound fund will soon break through the total amount of the annual total amount -500 billion yuan. Total annual total limit.

Secondly, with the increasingly active investment in the southbound, the demand for the risk hedging strategy of the domestic funds continues to be strong, especially in the Hong Kong market invested in the Hong Kong market invested in Nantongtong, the proportion of credit bonds is quite high. Diversified financial derivatives risks of default risks, interest rate risks and risk of price fluctuations.

Third, more and more mainland investors hope to further optimize the transaction registration procedure of South Xiangtong. For example Investors can only conduct indirect investment through the southbound wealth management products issued by the above institutions, but many mainland private equity funds hope that relevant departments can allow eligible mainland investment institutions to directly invest in various bonds in Hong Kong markets to increase the southward channels to increase Flexibility of global allocation of bonds.

In addition, under the south direction mechanism, Mainland bond registration and settlement institutions and custody clearing banks provide bond custody settlement services for mainland investors by opening a nominal account account in Hong Kong. Institutional cooperation continues to improve, on the one hand, it provides more optimal offer in the overseas bond transaction link, and on the other hand, it will speed up the settlement efficiency of the southbound bond transaction.

A person familiar with the matter revealed that the relevant departments are currently listening to the various suggestions of the market participation subject to the optimization of the southbound trading system, but whether to increase the total annual limit of the total amount of the year still needs to be carefully decided by relevant departments. After all, an important purpose of setting the annual total amount in the early days of the south direction is to control the risk of cross -border outflow of capital, especially when the current Fed continues to raise a sharp interest rate hike and the US dollar innovation high, the RMB exchange rate has fallen below the "7"; at the same time The reason why the southward requires that the investment in Mainland funds to invest in specific wealth management products through financial institutions is also based on the consideration of helping mainland investors to avoid overseas bond investment risks.

Why is the south direction "hot"

A set of data showed the continuous fiery in the south since May.

According to the data released by the Shanghai Clearance Institute, as of the end of April, the "South Win Tong" bonds and investment balances through financial infrastructure interconnection models were only 87 and 29.67 billion yuan.

At the end of May, the two numbers reached 178 and 87.89 billion yuan, respectively.

At the end of June, the two numbers further soared to 272 and 170.21 billion yuan.

At the end of July, these two numbers had become 339 and 224.11 billion yuan.

"Although the data of the southbound transaction data has not yet been announced in August, the market generally expects that the increase in the average monthly investment balance in the past 3 months will increase by 70-80 billion yuan. At the end of August, the investment balance may exceed 300 billion yuan." Book and bond analysts revealed to reporters, especially when the Fed's continued sharp interest rate hikes led to the continuous widening of Sino -US interest spreads, mainland funds allocated the demand for higher interest returns to obtain higher interest returns through the southward channels to configure Hong Kong US dollar pricing bonds. More vigorous.

Data Data Data shows that due to the continuous interest rate hikes of the Fed in September, the current and short -term Sino -US spreads are the largest value in the year, such as 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years. The difference in yields) reaches 229 basis points, 210 basis points, and 195 basis points, that is, the yields of US Treasury bonds in one, 2 years, and 3 years are 229 basis points, 210 basis points and 195 respectively. Penal points; 10 years of spread between China and the United States (that is, the difference in the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in China and the United States) reached 102 basis points, that is, 10 years of US Treasury yields is 102 basis points higher than that of China Treasury bonds. "This attracts more and more private equity funds in the Mainland to rent QDII quotas and use the southward channel to add various US dollar pricing bonds issued by the Hong Kong market." The person in charge of the above -mentioned domestic bond investment private equity institutions revealed to reporters. Although the southbound -mounted funds allow Mainland funds to invest in other non -US currency bonds such as RMB issued by the Hong Kong market, most mainland private equity funds currently favors US dollar valuation bonds because the US dollar index is innovative and can create higher exchange returns.

He calculated a account for reporters. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has innovated the high -RMB exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar by about 10%. After deducting the cost of exchange rate risk hedging operations and other costs, their Hong Kong US dollar denomination bond holders can still create about 6%of about 6% Exchange gains.

The person in charge of the domestic bond investment private equity institution revealed that through the south direction channel, the current proportion of investment in the Hong Kong market US dollar denomination bonds is close to 5%of the total assets of private equity funds. To 2%. Behind this is that they regard the over -equipped Hong Kong US dollar denomination bond as an important strategy to collect bond investment portfolios.

The reporter was informed that many mainland quantitative private equity funds are studying the allocation of Hong Kong market bonds through the southbound channel, building a cross -market bond arbitrage trading model, and obtaining more stable risk -free arbitrage income.

With the increasingly popular southbound, many mainland investment institutions began to worry that the southbound Tong will quickly touch the total annual limit -500 billion equal value, and it is expected that the relevant departments can appropriately relax this quota.

A person in charge of a bank institutional bond department involved in the southbound transaction pointed out to reporters that they predict that if the current an average investment balance is estimated to increase the average investment balance of 80 billion yuan, at the end of October The upper limit of the annual amount of RMB. At present, many private equity institutions in the Mainland lease the QDII quota as soon as possible in each of the Xiantong, and quickly complete the Hong Kong bond allocation before the southward quota.

In his opinion, compared with the upper limit of the southward limit, most mainland investment institutions hope to provide richer supporting measures such as financial derivatives to help them invest in overseas bond investment risks.

The reporter learned that some Mainland private equity funds are currently studying how to use the upcoming swap to hedge the interest rate risk of all kinds of bonds for the denomination of Hong Kong Renminbi. However, when they are open to the south to the south of the Mainland, they still have no bottom.

In addition, mainland investment institutions mainly increase the US dollar bonds through the southbound channel, which makes them pay special attention to the risk of corporate bond default. Although some Hong Kong investment banks have developed an off -site transaction -type CDS (credit default exchange) products, they are not enough to fully resolve their bond default risks.

In Huang Jiacheng's opinion, to properly solve the problem of risk hedging of the southbound investment, on the one hand, the domestic banking institutions are continuously cultivated in the southbound transaction and custody settlement. In order to provide more targeted risk hedging tools, on the other hand, relevant departments also need to encourage financial institutions to develop more diversified financial derivatives to meet the differentiated risk management needs of mainland funds.

Multi -priced to ensure the balanced capital flow of securities items

It is worth noting that the sudden popularity of the south direction also constitutes a new challenge to the balanced liquidity of domestic securities capital.

Data data from the Lianlian DataES shows that due to the continuous interest rate hikes of the United States and high inflation and low growth in the European and American economy, at the stock side, the net inflow of the southbound capital of Hong Kong Stock Connect this year reached 243.54 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 220 billion yuan), which is greatly great. The net inflow of RMB 46.88 billion in the northbound capital of the stock market, which puts the stocks of the stocks at a certain scale of capital outflow.

At the bond side, due to the expansion of the spread of Sino -US interests, a round of foreign capital bond markets have appeared in the domestic RMB bond market since the second quarter, which led to the change of the net capital inflow status in the north to the north, and began to show that overseas capital "exported" In the new situation, if the flow of funds from the south of bonds continues to expand, it will undoubtedly increase the pressure on the outflow of the bond.

"Under such circumstances, the net inflow of foreign direct investment and foreign trade surplus funds needs to play a basic surplus role to ensure that China's capital cross -border flow maintains a relatively balanced and stable trend." A domestic private equity fund macroeconomist pointed out. Considering the pressure of cross -border exit of securities capital since this year, it is not ruled out that the relevant departments will be extremely prudent of the upper limit of the annual total amount of the south to avoid excessive pressure on financial capital outflows.

After all, the pressure on the flow of securities items is high, and it is easy to be used by overseas speculative capital to hype "Chinese capital outflow" as a major theme for their betting rates to greatly depreciate sharply. From the perspective of many people in the industry, it is necessary to properly solve the problem of cross -border flow of securities capital capital, and relevant departments need to continue to steadily promote the opening of the domestic financial market to the outside world to attract more overseas capital inflows into the A shares and the RMB bond market, thereby reaching financial finance Capital cross -border flow is relatively balanced.

Huang Jiacheng told reporters that although more and more investors continue to invest in domestic RMB bonds, compared with the global influence of the Chinese economy, the proportion of RMB bonds hold is still low. In order to attract overseas capital to continue to increase its RMB bonds, three major problems need to be resolved. First, the liquidity of national debt varieties that the main allocation of overseas capital still need to be increased. The liquidity of the Treasury bonds in some periods will affect the enthusiasm of the allocation of overseas capital. Second, due to the lack of risk hedge tools, the domestic investment quota of overseas capital on certain bond trading strategies also limits the enthusiasm of their allocation; third, the varieties of domestic credit bonds still need to continuously improve the information disclosure, introduce the international internationally Credit rating attracts overseas capital to accelerate the pace of allocation.

"At present, the main logic of most overseas capital allocation of RMB bonds in China is the low degree of correlation between RMB bonds and other markets in China, and it can provide better risk decentralized value. The liquidity of information disclosure and transaction will also attract more overseas capital to pay attention to investment opportunities for high -yield bonds in China, and drive the balanced and stability of cross -border flow of bond capital. "Huang Jiacheng pointed out.

The aforementioned person familiar with the matter bluntly stated that if overseas capital continues to increase the RMB bonds in the country, it may make relevant departments more confidently increase the upper limit of the annual total amount of the south to the south. Interconnection of foreign financial markets.

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