"Playing new" is no longer risk -free income: September new shares breaking rate is approaching 40%, and high issue prices and high -valuation companies have become "severely disaster -stricken areas"

Looking back on the performance of new shares this year, the proportion of breakdown in the first day of the break was 50%of the peak in April, and then it turned in May and June. However, after entering the second half of the year, this data began to rise again. As of September 22, there were 31 new shares listed in the month, and the number of breaks in the first day reached 12, accounting for 38.71%.

Author: Monday Sail

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || Since the official implementation of the new regulations in September 2021, the new stock market has developed throughout the year. In terms of overall situation, compared with the GEM, the science and technology board is more likely to break through.

股 || "Due to the high break rate of new stocks, the previous blind new model may be poor. When choosing new stocks, the research of the company's fundamentals is becoming more and more important. If there is already a company with listed, it is recommended that investors can give up the company's performance. In addition, they can also choose individual stocks with better industry fundamentals and have more space for development to purchase. "Bi Mengyi pointed out.

The new stock market emotions quickly cool down again.

On September 21, of the four new shares listed on the market, N Nuocheng (Nuo Chengjian) (688428.SH), N Magnet (Magnetic Valley Technology) (688448.SH), N Cexbon (Bangbang Technology) (301326.SZ) All occurred on the first day. As of the end of the day, the three stocks closed down 15.41%, 11%, and 3.52%respectively.

Looking back on the performance of new shares this year, the proportion of breakdown in the first day of the break was 50%of the peak in April, and then it turned in May and June. However, after entering the second half of the year, this data began to rise again. As of September 22, there were 31 new shares listed in the month, and the number of breaks in the first day reached 12, accounting for 38.71%. Among them, from September 19th alone, six new shares of the current week have been broken in the current week, accounting for 54.55%.

"The recent increase in the break rate of new shares has reminded people of the situation in March and April this year. Compared with two time periods, it can be found that the overall sluggish market, the continuous shrinking of trading volume, insufficient investor confidence, and outflow of peripheral funds are all reasons. There is an inseparable relationship with the break of new shares. "Bi Mengzhang, a researcher at Geng Fortune Jinzhang Investment, told reporters.

"Since July, affected by factors such as the Federal Reserve’ s super -expected interest rate hikes, the depreciation of the RMB, and the frequent market friction, the secondary market shock down, and the three major indexes have shown a large decline. New shares with high value, unsuitable and high issue price have a more cautious attitude. To a certain extent, the transaction emotion has prompted the shrinkage of market valuations and the breaking of new stocks. Relevant persons in the market department of Guangfa Securities Capital Marketing Department told the Economic Observation Network reporter.

Nevertheless, in the opinion of the person, the core issue of the issuance link is pricing, and the current pricing of new shares in the inquiry session can be said to be more reasonable. On the first day of the listing of new stocks, the average increase of about 40%on the first day of the listing of new shares was close to the situation of mature capital markets. Generally speaking, the value discovery function of the current stock inquiry and pricing process is prominent, and the price of new shares issued is closer to the secondary market price. "

New shares break the "severe disaster area"

Since the official implementation of the new rules in the inquiry in September 2021, the new stock market has developed throughout the year. On the overall situation, compared with the GEM, the overall science and technology board is more prone to break.

According to Wind data, from September 18, 2021 to September 22, 2022, a total of 350 registered new shares were listed on the A -share market, including 81 of them to break the first day, including 8 new shares of the Beibei Stock Exchange, 25 GEM boards, and 25 GEM boards. New shares, and 48 new shares of science and technology board.

If the statistical time is shortened, it can be found that the first day of new shares in May and June this year has decreased to 0, but after entering the second half of the year, this data began to rebound again. Among them, the first day of the new shares in July was 25%, and in August it was 13.89%. After September, the number of new shares listed is 31. The third month of the new price rules will be implemented in the third month. Among them, the Beijing Stock Exchange, Science and Technology Board, and GEM have three, 4, and 5 new stocks in September.

In this regard, Gu Yuan Securities Analyst Zhu Dinghao recently stated in a recent research report that in addition to the listing sector, the higher probability of breaking the new shares at the stock level, the higher the issue price. When the issuance price is higher than 63 yuan, the new stocks of up to 38.98%of the new shares have broken. After the implementation of the new rules of inquiry, with the decrease in the proportion of high prices, there is a large choice space for the price of new shares.

From this perspective, the starting price of Huabao Xinneng (301327.SZ), which has been broken recently, has reached 237.5 yuan. The stock has encountered a large number of online investors, and a total of 2.21 million shares were abandoned, and the underwriter Huatai jointly included 525 million yuan. Data show that the first day of Huabao Xinneng's listing fell 11.37%, and the closing price on September 21 was 207 yuan. If Huatai co -owned, it has fluctuated 67.405 million yuan in 3 days.

Statistics show that from July to September 19 this year, a total of 65 dual-innovation sectors inquiry projects were listed on the market. , 42.11%, 25.00%, and the breakdown ratio of new shares between 0-30 yuan during the same period is 14.29%. Nevertheless, the high issuance price is not the only factor affecting the break of new shares. From the perspective of other new shares breaking this week, the company's issuance price is mostly concentrated between 25 and 52 yuan. The issuance price of new stocks in the aforementioned new shares is as low as 11.03 yuan, which has set the first day since the opening of the science and technology board opening market. The lowest issue price of the history of breaking new stocks.

"On the one hand, on the one hand, recently, the A -share market is affected by multiple factors such as fundamentals, capital, and emotional sides. The overall fluctuations are large. In the downward stage of risk preferences, investors' enthusiasm for participating in new shares investment is also suppressed. On the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand After the release of the new rules in September last year, the P / E ratio of the new shares issued by the new shares has increased significantly before the new regulations, and the higher issuance valuation has also increased to a certain extent. "A large public fund -raising fund told reporters.

Relevant persons from the aforementioned Guangfa Securities Capital Marketing Department told reporters that in the second half of the year, the new shares of new shares were mainly presenting several characteristics. First of all, the issuance valuation was higher. 15 (excluding 2 unburrelated enterprises) have average P/E ratio of new shares than the average price -earnings ratio of the affiliated industries disclosed by the prospectus, and the PE/industry PE has reached 2.65 times. Secondly, the probability of breaking the unsuccessful enterprise is also large. Since July, there have been 4 unsuccessful companies in Shuangchuang sectors, of which 2 are broken. The closing price on the first day of listing fell more than 15%or more.

Its supplements point out that from the perspective of the industry, the broken enterprise is mainly concentrated in the fields of electronics, power equipment, machinery equipment, pharmaceuticals, and other fields. The number of new shares issued in the above industry is relatively large, so it has helped the decline in the stock price of new stocks.

"New" also depends on technology

"From the" undefeated stock "to the frequent emergence of the break, the enthusiasm and quantity of participants in the new stock market have indeed declined. It can be expected that the institutions that participate in the quotation will be more rational later, and the pricing of new shares will also be priced. More back to its fundamental value. "For the current new stock market, the aforementioned public funding fund is admitted.

In Bi Mengzhang's view, a common phenomenon is that because new shares have no previous performance support, the quality of quality is different, and many investors know very little about their choice of companies. Unknown was broken.

Nevertheless, from the recent listing of new stocks, although the market has "cool down" significantly, new benefits can still be tapped.

On September 21, the new shares Enwei Pharmaceutical (301331.SZ) opened a high shock after listing, and the increase in the market once reached 67.8%, and then narrowed to 46.74%. Yuan, the highest floating profit in the market reached 10,000 yuan, becoming one of the recent big meat signs.

Public information shows that Eunwei's main Chinese patent medicine and chemicals, its core product "Jieer Yin washing liquid" in the field of gynecological inflammation in China's urban retail pharmacies ranked first in market share. From the perspective of performance, Eunwei Pharmaceutical's revenue increased by 0.47%year -on -year in the first half of this year, and net profit attributable to the mother was 11.91%year -on -year, which was mainly due to the growth of raw material costs. The company's listing price is 29.8 yuan/share, and the issuance price -earnings ratio is 24.72 times, which is slightly lower than the industry's price -earnings ratio (24.75 times).

At the same time, the high price -earnings ratio of the starting offer does not mean that the first day of listing is absolutely broken. Debon Technology (688035.SH), which was launched on September 19, reached 103.48 times, which was far higher than the industry's price -earnings ratio of 29.25 times, but the stock still rose 64.46%on the first day of listing.

It can be said that compared to the new brainless play, this work now requires some "technical" support.

"Due to the high break rate of new stocks, the previous blind new model may be poor. When choosing new stocks, the research of the company's fundamentals is becoming more and more important. For the company that listed, it is recommended that investors can give up the performance of the company. In addition, you can also choose individual stocks with better industry fundamentals and have a large development space for purchase. "Bi Mengyi pointed out.

The aforementioned public funding fund also told reporters that as an investment institution, the company will conduct more detailed research and discussions on the new stock logo before participating in the new. Based on its actual fundamentals and combined with the recent market environment Quotation. As for the target is issued on the science and technology board or the GEM, it will not affect whether the company's participation and final offer will be affected.

"As the comprehensive registration system comes, the increase in the supply of new shares and the intensification of differentiation is the general trend. Playing new is no longer a risk -free income. Rawned investment and value -oriented will become the main style of the market."

It further stated that "For investment institutions, first of all, the construction of investment and research teams should be strengthened to enhance the research capabilities and pre -judgment capabilities of the research and corporate value of the industry and the company's fundamentals; secondlyThe valuation research framework, establish an independent valuation research system, and adhere to the principles of science, independence, objective, and prudential to carry out investment work. Finally, we should establish a sound and necessary investment decision -making mechanism to strengthen compliance and risk control.The value assessment of new shares invests in a reasonable offer in combination with its own investment security margins, and then truly plays a role in discovering the price in terms of investment. "Russia -Ukraine conflicts: Ukraine's four places announced that they entered Russia's referendum.A new round of "gambling cards" in Macau began the 100 billion market value medical giant, 11% of the regulatory rumors caused the industry to have a huge shock

- END -