Dialogue between China and Europe International Business School: European tangles and anxiety

Our reporter Gao Ruohuan Beijing reported that Europe was under dark. Russia and Ukraine conflict, energy crisis, inflation, and euro crisis are accelerating the decline of the European economy to decline. But when the heat wave swept in July Europe, China was also burning at high temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius.

At this moment, no one can experience the feelings of "the world's coolness and heat" than Ding Yuan. As the Vice President and Faculty of the Top Asian Business School, which was co -founded by the Chinese Government and the European Union, in the past 4 months, he has been around the major forum summits, business schools and colleges worldwide partners in Europe The inter -activities faced European anxiety.

Seeing Weizhi described us a tangled and turbulent European picture: at the Davos Forum (also known as the World Economic Forum, World Economic Forum) this year, the European Central Bank Governor Lagarde and the European Parliament Speaker Mecuora's expression was serious, Because the Ukrainian crisis deeply stabbed Europe; the energy crisis caused by the energy crisis has pulled European companies into the abyss. For example, in mid -September, Hakle, a century -old toilet paper manufacturer in Germany, applied for bankruptcy. Forced into despair. The details of life are all signs of "cold winter" in the eyes of Ding Yuan's eyes: furniture ordered furniture in May, which still cannot be available in September; because of lack of parts, family members can only choose to buy second -hand cars ...

This kind of cold is accelerating the underlying logic of the layout of European multinational enterprises: the investment and global layout of EFFICIENCY under the ultimate rational state of the past globalization era have fully allowed the elasticity of the economy/supply chain ( Resilience. This means that the two sets of business models of multinational group global supply chains in the planes, parent companies and subsidiaries will become more common.

When the century -long change and century epidemic, economic globalization has encountered reverse flow, and the world has entered a new period of turbulent change. These are not too good for an international business school with globalization as a background. When the business world inevitably moves into a separate split state, how will a bridge that communicates Europe and China play a role? Can the Chinese market continue to maintain attractiveness to global business?

Ding Yuan said that the internationalization of the China -Europe International Institute of Technology has indeed encountered some challenges. This is more about the global anti -epidemic background, and the general rigorous epidemic prevention and control policies of various countries have hindered international personnel to some extent. Circulation caused by circulation. Whether foreign business interests in the Chinese market have not been verified, but Ding Yuan is a little worried. If it continues to be separated, we and the outside world may be stronger and stronger. Realizing dual carbon is a product that requires more international consensus.

Shortly before the interview with the Economic Observation News, Ding Yuangang organized and attended the eighth China -Europe and Europe forums held in Brussels and Paris, respectively. Discuss important issues.

"We don't know enough about Europe. The domestic remarks with ridiculous calling the European Union are" big baby "(big baby). Strengthen economic exchanges and cooperation with Russia, such as the second natural gas pipeline built before, to reduce the risk of war, but it has also formed the energy dependence on Russia today in Europe. The Ukraine crisis prompts Europe to start reflection. They are worried that in the new energy revolution, strengthening cooperation with China in battery technology and solar energy will repeat Russia's mistakes.

The real problem is that extreme weather has aggravated the energy crisis of Europe, which means that the use of clean energy should be more, not less. In Ding Yuan's view, in the face of the super heat encountered this year, it is also time to let everyone reflect on a global problem: how can the two be balanced by the interests of short -term interests such as enterprises/individuals and the interests of all human destiny?

dialogue:

Swing and misunderstood Europe

Economic Observer: In early September, the European Central Bank's historic interest rate hikes 75 basis points to cope with high inflation. Many people think that the second European debt crisis will occur. What is the European situation you observed?

Ding Yuan: The situation in Europe is bad now. Europe is not like the United States. The latter's employment data is very good. In addition, the United States ten years ago was the output of LNG's natural gas. In recent years, the shale oil has developed rapidly, and the independence of energy is strong.

In contrast, Europe: On the one hand, the economic situation is weak and the employment situation is not as good as the United States; on the other hand, the poor energy independence is not only poor price independence. Therefore, the European Central Bank dare not raise interest rates. The main task of the European Central Bank is to control inflation and ensure the seriousness and feasibility of monetary policy. Therefore, the interest rate should be pulled back to the normal level when inflation is up. But now the United States and Europe have entered the interest rate hike period, which will cause another problem -economic recession.

In fact, in late February this year, before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, Europe's inflation was very serious. Russia and Ukraine conflicts are just accelerating inflation. The global market share of Russia and Ukraine in terms of energy and food is very high. The two supply chains are completely disrupted and the price will rise. Especially the European people have felt a lot of pressure, cheer in daily life, and burn natural gas to warm up. In late August, European gas prices were 10 times higher than the same period last year. Now that Europeans discuss whether it will break energy and power off in winter, and grain prices are also growing. At the corporate level, in mid -September, the largest toilet paper manufacturer in Germany has closed down, because the energy consumption of toilet paper is relatively large; the bread houses in many industrial -style supply supermarkets are not spared. It's right. The economic pressure and political pressure throughout Europe are very great.

Economic Observer: In the face of the "cold winter" of Europe this year, how should China understand and respond?

Ding Yuan: I think this is very troublesome. I also said at the Davos Forum last time that domestic is not enough to know enough about Europe. Some domestic media with ridiculous calling the EU as the "big baby" is actually a problem.

The energy issues facing Europe are essentially the failure of Europe, led by Germany after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, and headed by Germany. In terms of energy issues, it has failed with Russia's Engagement (communication participation) model. At the end of the Cold War, Europe has been strengthening economic exchanges with Russia, forming this very close relationship. Europe's dependence on Russia's natural gas and crude oil, that is, in the past two or three decades, Western Europe, led by Germany, hopes to enhance economic integration through economic exchanges with Russia to achieve political stability and peace in a sense.

At present, this purpose has failed. The goodwill of strategic arrangements in Europe that year became the weakness of being controlled by Russia. The Russian conflict is equivalent to bringing the Cold War atmosphere back to Europe again. In fact, this is not good for China.

China hopes to face a more autonomous Europe, which can interact with China positive and constructive. However, the European elites have publicly discussed to reshape the supply chain and strengthen supply chain security at the Davos Forum. They also regard China as the unsafe factor of the supply chain. The key is that this is not a short -term interest, but a long -term problem. The European side will naturally worry that the dependence on the Chinese market and technology is too strong. For example, new energy is imported from China, and it will become a weakness again.

In today's world, the complementarity between countries is getting stronger and stronger, but this is no longer a problem, but a political issue. Especially, Europe is around the United States. A close observation will find that Europe itself has an attitude to confront China itself, but the United States has an attitude towards China. Europeans are most worried about US sanctions in China. What do they do?

Economic Observer: Last year, we were still talking about China's FDI (foreign direct investment) data. However, this year, around the global supply chain and multinational investment, "shore" seems to be becoming a new keyword. In the past year, what changes you have observed?

Ding Yuan: First of all, we must see this problem. We have two backgrounds from reform and opening up to so many interactions with Europe and the United States.

The first is that European and American countries have allowed China to enter the bureau, including giving equal market access and technical support. Second, European and American countries believe that China has become an important part of the global industrial chain. Cooperation with them will indeed save a lot of costs and improve the efficiency of their countries or companies. But there is also a very important belief behind this, that is, after the establishment of the supply chain, they will consider the value and interests that China will not "stuck neck", which is safe for them.

Based on these two expected changes, European multinational companies are also discussing corporate strategies. But China is not the same as Russia after all. China's economic volume is 10 times that of Russia. The depth and breadth of China and global exchanges are not comparable to Russia at all. Moreover, the cooperation between China and Europe has not worsening to the extent like Russia. There is no reason to withdraw from the reason, and there is no condition for withdrawal from China.

But as before February, no one thought that the Russian -Ukraine conflict broke out, but the conflict happened so quietly. Once a strategic blockade occurs, all their assets and investment will happen. In the face of China, they are now tangled, because many companies have only 1%-2%of business share in Russia, and most of their business share in China is greater than 20%. Most of these companies are listed companies. In the face of the return of investment in shareholders around the world, their pressure is very high.

Therefore, in a strict sense, Europe is now in a state of entanglement. One of the solutions of this state of tangled state is that it is shore in the problem and engage in two sets of business models. Overall, the original based on the ultimate rational state of the globalization era, the investment and global layout of EFFICIENCY will no longer invest in Europe. They now consider how to maintain the economy/supply chain Resiliation.

Earlier, foreign companies have always believed that China's biggest advantage is the efficiency and gathering of supply chains accumulated in batches and years of development, as well as predictability and stability of local government policies. Today, foreign companies will evaluate whether China is a link in the global supply chain layout, and whether the proportion of efficiency and risk is appropriate. Although from a rational perspective, foreign companies still say that the Chinese market is important, but what needs to be vigilant is whether the Western government will "label" to China, which will lead to changing their ideas. Economic Observer: As a bridge connecting Europe and China, China -Europe International Business School is the most urgent thing now?

Ding Yuan: We have encountered some challenges now. First of all, for China -Europe, the internationalization of students is one of the important support forces of the college's internationalization strategy. However, in view of the extensive spread of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic in the world, some foreign students cannot return because they leave China because of the epidemic prevention and control policies, and they can't get in for new students who want to apply for admission. There are also some students studying at school. Over the past three years, the enrollment business of international students has not made much progress. Although this business has little impact on the overall financial situation of China and Europe, it is very important for the strategic significance and brand image of China -Europe.

The good news is that at the beginning of September this year, foreigners who held a valid APEC business travel card to China and foreign students who were engaged in business activities and foreign students holding valid learning residence permits restored their entry visas. But this year's enrollment is a bit late. Next month we will start school. As a lighthouse -like institution in the Chinese business community, China has always been very proud. Global business schools and companies understand that China is through the window of China. I am worried that in the long run, everyone's feelings will become stronger and stronger after being isolated from each other.

Economic Observer: Some time ago, China Europe also held the eighth China -Europe Forum in Shanghai, Brussels, and Paris. Europe is deeply trapped in the energy crisis. What challenges will continue to promote the double -carbon cooperation between China and Europe? How will China Europe play a role in it?

Ding Yuan: In fact, this summer, the climate of the entire northern hemisphere is bad, alternating high temperature and drought. These two things let us realize that the so -called clean energy of alternative carbon will also have problems in the face of extreme weather. In Sichuan Sichuan, the water and electricity cannot be sent. Originally, France was the country's strongest energy autonomy, but nuclear energy also had problems. Because of cooling water, many nuclear power plants had limited power generation capacity. There are no ways to go to the old road of coal, because the pollution is too large. But in the face of such a large use of electricity, how can the government respond?

There is another new problem for Europe, that is, if they want to advance green energy, especially solar energy, wind energy, and battery industries, they will face a painful choice: in the supply chain of these industries, China's status is very. Strong, return to the question just now, would they want to strengthen the relationship with China in this field. Europe is now very entangled. In fact, this is the easiest part of currently.

The theme of our eighth European Forum, the eighth European Forum, is "open sharing and go to the net zero future." As an important platform for the China -Europe business elite exchanges and cooperation, since its launch in 2012, we have gone through this European forum for ten years. Although the current China -Europe cooperation is facing difficulties, as a college, this matter must be adhered to, because dialogue exchanges and international cooperation are essential.

In fact, in the face of high temperature weather this year, it is time to reflect on everyone: how can the two be balanced by short -term interests such as enterprises/individuals and the interests of all human destiny? I think this is a global issue. In the context of global economic downturn, geopolitical instability, and protectionism, China -EU cooperation will also have opportunities in the future. At present, once investment or acquisitions related to technology and national security related to technology and national security, the review of Western countries will be very strict and cautious. However, in industries with low political sensitivity and less correlation with national security issues, there are still many opportunities for consumption or financial services.

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