Yang Delong: The sharp interest rate of the Federal Reserve affects the global stock market trend

Yang Delong | Cube, everyone talks about column authors

On September 23, at 2 am on Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points as scheduled, which had an impact on the global capital market. U.S. stocks fell sharply. Two days of adjustment. The Fed's interest rate hike is to cope with high inflation. According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the US CPI in August was as high as 8.3%. Although 8.5%in July, it was still at a relatively high level. The expression makes investors more worried. At present, strong employment growth in the United States is the confidence of Powell's tough speech. U.S. stocks have continued to fall, which reflects investors' concerns about economic growth. Globally, the Fed ’s interest rate hikes have caused many central banks to follow interest rate hikes, which will also form a certain constraint on the Central Bank of China.

my country's current inflation rate is not high, only less than 3%, which is a benign inflation, but the economic growth has been significantly reduced by the expected impact this year. Therefore, maintaining moderate loosening in monetary policy is an important step in steady growth. Some time ago, my country has reduced the interest rate of one -year and five -year LPR loan market, and at the same time decreased the regular deposit interest rate of large banks, which is intended to boost economic growth. However, the continuous interest rate hikes of the Fed have led to a continuous increase in the deviation of the Chinese and US currency policy, which has a certain impact on the trend of the RMB exchange rate. However, from the long -term perspective, with the gradual recovery of my country's economy, the possibility of a significant decline in the RMB exchange rate is not great, and it is more to maintain interval fluctuations. Compared to other non -US currencies, the depreciation of the RMB is relatively small.

The Federal Reserve ’s so radical interest rate hike in the short period of time is mainly because the current reasons for high inflation in the United States are relatively complicated. It is not a simple monetary phenomenon. In the past three years, the Fed has adopted excessive loose monetary policy, even“ big water irrigation ”. By implementing zero interest rates and unlimited looseness, the economic growth rate is boosted, but the cost of doing so is huge. There is no free lunch in the world. Now the price of commodities has risen, which are all given by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Of course, there are other factors. For example, affected by the epidemic and Russian conflict, the supply chain of many industries has a shortage of supply chain, resulting in a decrease in supply. Under the background of the economic recovery, the prices of commodities rose sharply, especially the prices of oil and natural gas have risen significantly, and oil prices once approached a record high. From the perspective of international exchange rates, the Fed continues to raise interest rates to increase the US dollar index. On September 22, Beijing time, the US dollar index was approaching 112, rising to a high point in 20 years. Not only is the capital outflow of emerging market countries, the European Union, Japan and South Korea and other East Asian countries and regions are roughly the same. The euro has fallen below the one to one to one to one to one to one to the US dollar, and the yen and Korean won have depreciated sharply.

From the statistics, in the first half of this year, international capital flowed into the United States on a large scale. Overseas investors have bought US securities assets nets, which are dual influences due to the demand for spreads and risk aversion. Strong US dollar triggered global US dollar wastes. This is the advantage of the United States to harvest global assets with the advantages of the central bank of the world, which has a great impact on African -African countries. It is precisely because of the strong overflow of US monetary policy that we cannot analyze the influence of the Fed's continuous interest rate hike linearly that we should observe the consequences of the Fed's continuous interest rate hike from a global perspective. The global economy's risk of stagflation is increasing, that is, the economic growth rate has stalled and inflation is inflation. Under the case where the US dollar refreshed a 20 -year high, many countries may follow the interest rate hike, which further increased the risk of economic recession. The market is now expected that the Federal Reserve's interest rate interest meeting may continue to raise interest rates in November. The latest line map shows that most Federal Reserve officials are expected to raise interest rates 125 basis points during the year.

Looking back at the current market, after more than three months of continuous adjustment of the A -share market, the valuation is once again near the historical low. Under the condition of retraction and adjustment, the market confidence is insufficient. There are some signs of the market adjustment, but there is no chance to generate a big market. In September, it may become an inflection point in the market market in the second half of the year, and it may also complete the bottom.

With the economic recovery and the monetary policy in the fourth quarter, the A -share market may usher in the opportunity to recover. In the market downside, the layout is a better investment strategy. From the perspective of economic transformation, new energy and consumption are the two major industries that have benefited from the most economic transformation. It is recommended that investors can consider layout related leading stocks or related related stocks Theme fund.

In the long run, doing a good job of the company's shareholders, adhering to the value investment is a good investment strategy that crosses the bull and bear cycle and overcomes market fluctuations. When market adjustments, investors are advised to maintain a good attitude to deal with. Things must be reversed. Whether it is extremely close to it. When the market confidence is insufficient, it is often a period of brewing of reversal opportunities. The adjustment of high -quality stocks with the mentality of shareholders can better invest. Judging from the past investment experience, short -term fluctuations in the market will not change the company's investment value, but to deal with market fluctuations by configuring high -quality faucets and high -quality funds is a better investment strategy.

Responsible editor: Tao Jiyan | Review: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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