Wind Observation | Behind the "Competition" of the Global Central Bank: When will the strong dollar be topped?

Fengkou Finance reporter Liu Xiao

As the US inflation is high, the Fed has carried out the largest dense interest rate hike in 40 years. At 2 am on September 22, Beijing time, the Fed announced that it had raised interest rates of 75 basis points. Since this year, the Fed has raised interest rates 5 times, with a cumulative interest rate hike of 300 basis points. Since June, the Federal Reserve has raised 75 basis points for three consecutive times, and the interest rate level has reached a new high since the beginning of 2008.

In fact, this week is a veritable "Super Central Bank Week". After the Federal Reserve ’s fifth big interest rate hike was announced during the year, the central banks of the United Kingdom, Switzerland, South Africa, Indonesia, and the Philippines received interest rate hikes. Japan launched a foreign exchange intervention and launched the "Currency Defense War."

Experts said that considering that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike entered the post -section, the economic growth trend slowed, and the US dollar had risen sharply again.

On September 21, Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve Committee, attended a press conference in Washington. Xinhua News Agency

Global Central Bank starts the "competition" of interest rate hikes

After the Fed violently raised 75 basis points, on September 22, the Central Bank of the United Kingdom announced that 50 basis points raised interest rates, raising interest rates to 2.25%, trying to curb inflation. This is the seventh time the Bank of England has announced interest rates this year. In August, the British Bank raised the benchmark interest rate to 50 basis points to 1.75%. It was the largest interest rate hike since the Bank of England since 1995, and at the same time increased the benchmark interest rate to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

Like the Global Central Bank, the British Bank of Britain's interest rate hike is still to suppress soaring inflation. Starting in April, the British CPI increased for five consecutive months of "9". The inflation rate rose to 10.1%in July, reaching the highest level in 40 years.

On the same day, the central bank of Norwegian announced a rate hike 50 basis points, raising the policy interest rate from 1.75%to 2.25%. The Swiss Central Bank announced the 75-basis point of interest rate hikes, raising interest rates from -0.25%to 0.5%.

At this point, all central banks in Europe have been separated from negative interest rates, marking the end of an era.

European Central Bank President Lagarde said on the 20th that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates to prevent high inflation from affecting economic behavior and become a long -term issue. She said that the inflation rate of the euro zone has been at high for 10 consecutive months and may continue to rise in the short term. In order to cope with continuous high inflation, the European Central Bank increased key interest rates twice in July and September this year, and raised a total of 125 basis points. Historically and rapidly adjusting interest rates shows the determination of the European Central Bank to deal with inflation challenges.

The Indonesian and the Philippine central bank averaged 50 basis points. Among them, the interest rate hikes of the Indonesian central bank surpassed market expectations. Both countries are currently facing the problem of inflation higher than the central bank's goals.

South African Reserve Bank (central bank) announced on the 22nd that the benchmark interest rate raised 75 basis points to 6.25%. This is the sixth consecutive interest rate hike since November last year. Affected by the rise in food, gasoline and other living costs, South Africa's inflation situation this year was severe. In July, the inflation rate was as high as 7.8%, and August fell slightly to 7.6%.

It is worth mentioning that in the case of a number of central banks collectively raising interest rates, Turkey does the opposite. The Central Bank of Turkey announced on the 22nd that the benchmark interest rate was reduced by 100 basis points to 12%. This is the second time the Turkish central bank has lowered the benchmark interest rate after 100 basis points cut in August this year.

Judging from the inflation situation faced by the country, the operation of the Turkish central bank is really "unclear". Affected by Feds' continuous interest rate hikes and other factors, since the beginning of this year, Turkish currency lira has continued to decline to the US dollar exchange rate, which has now fallen below 18 to 1, reaching the lowest point of history. According to Turkish official data, the country's inflation rate in August reached 80.21%, the highest point in 24 years.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, said in an interview with the Trone Finance that the "competition" of the global central bank's interest rate hike is mainly to suppress high inflation and high inflation on the economy. At the same time, the impact on the influence of the radical interest rate hikes of the European and American central banks through interest rate cuts, avoiding the disorderly depreciation of the local currency and the vicious cycle of capital outflow, and reducing the pressure of the input -type inflation of the local currency.

Dongfang Jincheng chief analyst Wang Qing said to the Caipito Finance that the Fed's 75 basis points raised interest rates, indicating that the United States is still in the process of rapid interest rate hikes. This will drive the global financial environment to tighten, and to a certain extent forced the vast majority of national monetary policy to follow up and tighten. For emerging economies and developing countries, following the Fed's tightening of monetary policy is mainly to alleviate currency depreciation and large -scale capital outflow pressure.

On September 22, in Tokyo, Japan, the screen of the yen was displayed on the screen of a foreign exchange trading company. Xinhua News Agency

Japan took the lead in starting the "Currency Defense War"

According to Xinhua News Agency, due to the violent fluctuations in the exchange rate of the yen to the US dollar, the Ministry of Finance of Japan announced on the 22nd that it would intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent the yen from further depreciating. This is the first time that the Japanese government has intervened in the foreign exchange market since June 1998.

On the afternoon of the 22nd, the Bank of Japan held a monetary policy meeting to announce that it would continue to adhere to the current super loose monetary policy and maintain interest rates unchanged. Kuroda Hitza Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said that large -scale currency easing policy is necessary for supporting the recovery of the Japanese economy from the downturn caused by the new crown epidemic. The Bank of Japan issued an announcement saying that although the epidemic still affects the operating activities of some small and medium -sized enterprises, as their capital status improves, the Bank of Japan will gradually terminate the preferential financing policies for SMEs in stages. At the end of March. After the news was announced, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar fell further. On the same day, it was approaching the 146 to 1 mark on the day, a new low in 24 years. In order to prevent the Japanese yen from continuing to fall, the Ministry of Financial was intervened later on the same day and sold the exchange rate by buying the Japanese yen and selling the US dollar. Then the yen rose to the US dollar exchange rate to 140.78 to 1. As of the end of Tokyo's foreign exchange market transaction, the exchange rate of the yen to the US dollar was about 142.2 to 1.

Since its entry into the interest rate hike cycle, the Bank of Japan has been bringing "loose" and not relaxing, and "runs counter" with the global central bank. The Researcher Ito Basic Institute of Nature Basic Research Institute said that the Bank of Japan adheres to the super loose monetary policy to become the focus of the market and puts more downward pressure on the Japanese yen. The measures to interfere with the exchange rate of the Japanese government can be observed.

Zhou Maohua told Fengkou Finance that Japan's entry into the market was mainly to avoid the collapse of the yen. The reason why the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply is that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and pushed the US dollar. In addition, the Bank of Japan insists on QQE (quality and quantification and loose), leading to the continuous depreciation of the yen; the second is that the market is concerned about Japan's economic prospects. The influence of the Japanese epidemic and geopolitical conflict, the slowdown in global demand, and the weakening of Japan's high debt to weaken Japan's economic prospects.

Zhou Maohua believes that the depreciation of the yen has a significant impact on the Japanese economy: the import price of Japanese energy and raw material products is greatly pushed up, and the cost of production and living and living in enterprises and consumers has risen rapidly to suppress domestic demand; At the same time, weaken the market's confidence in Japan's economic prospects.

In addition, the exchange rate of the Han Dynasty fell below the 1,400 -1 mark on the 22nd of the US dollar, setting a minimum record since March 31, 2009. Experts believe that the US Federal Reserve Commission's sharp interest rate hikes have led to a stronger dollar, and Han won for weakness. According to the news released by the Ministry of Planning and Finance of South Korea, South Korea ’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Planning Qiu Qinghao held an emergency macroeconomic and financial conference on the exchange rate trend of the Korean won on the 21st, saying that it will strictly monitor the influencing factors of the exchange rate and adopt a response plan according to the market conditions. In order to solve problems such as uneven foreign exchange supply and demand.

This is the Korean won and USD banknotes taken in Seoul, South Korea on September 22. Xinhua News Agency

When will the strong dollar be topped?

After the Fed announced its interest rate hike, the market generally interpreted the US dollar to remain strong.

Zhong Zhengsheng, the chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that in the short term, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is not necessarily faster than the non -US central bank, but because the US economy is relatively tough and the Fed's determination to fight inflation is stronger, it is expected that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike end or more Far and more sustainable, long -term interest rate hike expectations are the strong support of the US dollar exchange rate. Regardless of the Fed's tightening rhythm or from the perspective of non -US economic pressure, the US dollar exchange rate will still maintain strong.

Zhou Maohua believes that the recent strengthening of the US dollar is the Fed's radical interest rate hike on the one hand, and the interest rate has risen. On the other hand, the weakening of non -US currencies such as Europe and the United States and the yen has been pushed, and the United States and Europe have maintained a more obvious economic fundamentals and policy differences.

"The Federal Reserve is a unconventional radical interest rate hike period. The short -term US dollar is strong, but the US dollar deviates from the fundamentals. The negative impact of the Fed's radical interest rate hikes on the US economic prospects will lag behind." The economic growth trend has slowed down, the risk of recession has risen, and the central banks such as Europe have joined the "competition" of interest rate hikes. On the whole, the US dollar has been weakened again.

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of research department of the Digang Langlian Federation, believes that considering that the US economic recovery and labor market are still at a relatively high level, the Fed continues to rely on the radical interest rate hike cycle to curb the inflation momentum. In the short term, the US dollar index The high probability will continue to maintain an upward trend, which may cause funds to return to the United States from emerging markets and other major developed markets, which will continue to put pressure on non -US dollar asset prices and non -US dollar currency exchange rates.

In Zhong Zhengsheng's view, the US dollar index may not have been seen in the short term, and there is still a probability to explore in the future. In the short term, the market may see that the international "energy crisis" is substantially eased, which has reduced the pressure of non -US economic and financial pressure, so that the exchange rate of US currencies can breathe; Under the tightening, when the risk of economic recession in the United States is truly fulfilled, it may be the day when the US dollar index is touched.

It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve has greatly reduced economic growth expectations in the latest forecast. The Fed predicts that the US economic growth rate is 0.2%(1.7%in June) this year, and 1.2%in 2023 (1.7%of the June forecast value).

Analyst Bai Xue, an analyst at the Department of East Jincheng Research and Development, told Creparagus that the core inflation and viscosity driven by the current demand driven by the United States is strong. If inflation is expected to fall, it may further stimulate consumption and continue to support inflation. Therefore, this round of inflation in the United States may have to be relieved through economic recession. It is expected that with the advancement of interest rate hikes and the increase in growth pressure, the US economy is more likely to fall into substantial mild decline in the second half of next year. On May 9th, at the container pier of Lianyungang Port, Jiangsu Province, the freighter was full of container departing from the berth (drone photo). Xinhua News Agency

The RMB exchange rate will remain stable

On September 22, after the RMB pairing exchange rate fell below the 7.08 mark, the market fell to 7.0967. Later, as the US dollar index rushed to fall, the RMB against the US dollar's current exchange rate recovered some of the lost land. At 16:30 at 16:30 7.0810 during the day closed, down 275 basis points from the previous trading day. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative decline in the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar has reached about 11%.

In Zhou Maohua's view, due to the radicals of the Federal Reserve's radical water, the US dollar stronger, the non -US currency such as the RMB constitutes a certain pressure, and the RMB has depreciated the US dollar currency. Maintain strong.

Wang Qing said that with the support of economic fundamentals, the risk of rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate from the US dollar in the future will not be large, and the three major RMB exchange rate index will remain stable.

Yang Delong, managing director and chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said in an interview with Trone Finance that the primary goal of the Bank of China is to grow steadily, but at the same time, it is necessary to consider the stability of the RMB exchange rate. Although my country's inflation rate is not high now, only less than 3%, which is benign inflation, so the problem of inflation can be temporarily considering, but the RMB exchange rate problem is still an important problem. He said that if China -US currency policy deviations are too large, it may affect the depreciation of the human currency and cause certain pressure. Therefore, the central bank will also worry about looseness. Recently LPR interest rates, at the same time, reduce the regular deposit interest rates of large banks, are all the goals of stabilizing economic growth and achieving stable growth, but the possibility of reducing the benchmark rate is not much.

Recently, the implementation report of China's monetary policy in the second quarter of 2022 issued by the People's Bank of China proposed that it will increase the implementation of stable monetary policy, give full play to the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, actively respond, boost confidence, do a good job of cross -cycle cross -cycle Regarding the short -term and long -term, long -term, economic growth and stability of prices, internal equilibrium and external balance, insist on not engaged in "large water drilling", do not exceed currency, and provide more powerful and higher quality support for the real economy.

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