Domestic bonds still have a configuration value agency that A shares may go out of independence

What impact will the Fed ’s interest rate hike on my country's bond market and the A -share market? The reporter's interview found that most institutions are optimistic about the future trend.

Expected debt market

Foreign capital outflow limited

Due to the five interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve, the yield on the 10 -year US debt is up, and the extent of the spread of Sino -US interests has increased, and foreign capital in my country's bond market has some inflows. Data from bonds show that from March to August of this year, the overseas holdings of north to north areas have fallen from 3.88 trillion yuan to 3.48 trillion yuan, and foreign investment in the bond market has exported more than 400 billion yuan.

According to Nanjing Bank's Financial Research Department, the spread of China and the United States in the fourth quarter may continue, and foreign investment in the bond market may continue to flow out, but the extent that foreign capital outflows are expected to be generally limited.

According to the National Life Security Fund Research Report, the Federal Reserve ’s this round of interest rate hikes since March this year has weakened its monetary policy. The operation of the domestic bond market will continue to take the internal fundamental and policy as the main axis. Monetary policy is still friendly to the bond market, the wide -splitting pattern of presented is not changed, and the configuration force under loose liquidity will continue to be strongly supported.

my country's monetary policy is relatively stable, and the yield of government bonds has not fluctuated greatly, and it shows a range of upward and downlinks. Ningshui Capital Researcher Ji Zhou told reporters that the domestic monetary policy will still be based on stable advancement. At present, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike has a limited impact on domestic policies. Lower space. From a medium -to -long perspective, domestic bonds still have certain allocation value.

A -share market

The tough traits still exist

"China's inflation is well controlled, and China's economic cycle is not synchronized with the United States. The monetary policy is relatively loose, the fiscal policy is relatively positive, the policy space is huge, and the policy tool box is rich. The tough traits of the stock market still exist. "Li Daxiao, British Securities, told reporters.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the Institute, told reporters of the Securities Daily that the Fed's sharp interest rate hikes have formed a certain risk transmission on A shares, mainly because the United States is the main supplier of global liquidity, from historical data From the perspective of the interest rate hike cycle, the tightening of overseas liquidity has triggered a decline in market investment, and the A -share market fluctuates in the short term. However, from the long -term perspective, the A -share market has not changed with the Fed's interest rate hike policy. Instead, it is out of independence. The main reason is that the Chinese capital market is more affected by the domestic economic development and policy changes. First of all, in terms of liquidity, the central bank adheres to "my main", monetary policy continues to make efforts, and domestic liquidity is still ample. Followed by the economic aspect, the "steady growth" policy has been implemented one after another, and the economy is expected to maintain a steady recovery trend in the fourth quarter. In this context, with the rise of market sentiment, the impact of tightening overseas liquidity may gradually weaken, and it is expected that the A -share market is expected to be relatively limited due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.

Since the beginning of this year, the Fed raised interest rates 5 times. From the perspective of the A -share market before and after the interest rate hike, there were 4 previous interest rate hike indexes, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and the GEM index. The deep syndromes and the GEM finger rose.

In this regard, Zhang Xia, chief strategy analyst of China Merchants Securities, said that before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, most A shares fell; after the interest rate hike, most A shares rose. The main reason is that before the Fed ’s interest rate hike, the A -share market was affected by factors such as the flow of capital flow and the high US dollar indexes, and maintained a weak trend of the interval; after the interest rate hike, A -share risk preferences may be significantly boosted.

"After the Fed's interest rate hike, the A -share market is expected to get out of independence." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told reporters that the monetary policy environment facing the A -share market in the fourth quarter is probably better than US stocks, and the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes The external factors have been fully reflected in the market adjustment in the past three months. Therefore, the space for further decline in the A -share market is relatively small.

Deng Haiqing, chief economist of AVIC Fund, told reporters that China, as the second largest economy in the world, has a large economic volume, the depth and breadth of the financial market have been greatly improved. Depending on itself, the external impact does exist, but it does not determine the trend.

Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, said that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes and the impact of overseas market fluctuations on the A -share market are objective. However, there are also conditions and opportunities for A shares to get out of independent markets: First of all, China's economic toughness is strong, the A -share market has sufficient adjustment, and the low valuation and loose liquidity make the market downward pressure. It can be partially impacted from the external impact.

(Editor in charge: Chang Shuai Shuai)

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