"The third world" is hanging, Japan can’t sit still

The continuous and rapid depreciation of the yen has made the Japanese government and the Japanese Bank of Japan unable to sit still. On the 21st local time, the Fed announced a significant interest rate hike 75 basis points. On the 22nd, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar fell to the 145 range, forcing Japan to interfere with the exchange market after 24 years. Since the beginning of this year, the continued depreciation of the yen has caused the GDP of Japan (GDP), which is priced in the US dollar, which may fall below $ 4 trillion for the first time after 30 years, which has caused Japan to lose its position in the world's third largest economy.

After a lapse of 24 years, Japan shot against the foreign exchange market

According to the "Japan Economic News", the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan announced on the 22nd that they would adopt an operation intervention in the market for buying yen and selling the US dollar. This is the first time that the Japanese government has intervened in the foreign exchange market since June 1998. Affected by this, the yen's exchange rate on the US dollar was strengthened and rose to the 141 range.

The real person of the Japanese Ministry of Finance, the financial officer of the Ministry of Finance, told the media on the same day: "The excessive volatility of the exchange rate is unbearable." The Japanese Financial Secretary Takashi Koichi previously told the media that the Japanese government is highly concerned about the movement of the foreign exchange market. If the trend of the depreciation of the yen continues If you go on, you will not rule out any options and take necessary measures in the foreign exchange market. Japan's last intervention in the foreign exchange market to sell US dollars to buy yen was when the Asian currency crisis was the worst in June 1998, and the last time it was stored in the market was in November 2011.

Earlier, the Bank of Japan announced at the monetary policy conference that ended on the day that the policy interest rate was unchanged at -0.1 %, and the target of the 10-year Japanese Treasury yield was about 0 %. At present, Japan is the last central bank that is still in the main economy of negative interest rates.

As the Fed has just announced a significant interest rate hike 75 basis points, the market has continued to increase the differences in Japanese and American monetary policy, and the spread between the yen and the US dollar has further expanded. After the news of the Bank of Japan released the news, the yen exchange rate of the Tokyo foreign exchange market fell to $ 1 against 145 yen, refreshing the lowest point in the past 24 years.

The President of the Bank of Japan Kuroda Kuroda said at a press conference after the monetary policy meeting that Japan's financial policy is not aimed at the exchange rate and emphasized that it will not increase the exchange rate of the Bank of Japan. For the current Japanese negative interest rate policy, Kuroda Dongyan believes that it will not cause major side effects or problems.

Facing the rapid depreciation of the yen, Kuroda Dongyan said: "There are many factors affecting the exchange rate, and the causes of the devaluation of the yen include both unilateral factors and speculative factors. The continuous depreciation of the yen makes it difficult for enterprises to develop long -term development. Planning also improves the uncertainty of economic prospects, which is negative for the Japanese economy. "Kuroda also believes that it is necessary to fully pay attention to the impact of the trend of the financial and foreign exchange market on the Japanese economy and prices.

"World Third" hangs

Affected by the continued depreciation of the yen, Japan's total GDP for USD has fallen back 30 years ago. A few days ago, the "Japan Economic News" quoted the forecast of the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization (OECD) that Japan's nominal GDP this year is expected to be 553 trillion yen, and the total amount of USD is 3.9 trillion US dollars. Roughly equivalent. Japan's economic scale may be less than $ 4 trillion since 1992. If the yen continues to depreciate or hovers low, the scale of Japan's GDP next year will still be less than $ 4 trillion.

In the 42nd years from 1968 to 2009, Japan ranked second in GDP rankings around the world, second only to the United States. In 2010, the total number of GDPs in China surpassed Japan, and Japan has maintained the third place in the world in the following 12 years.

Japanese economic analyst, Bird Yu Hyato, believes that at present, Japan's GDP ranking third is at stake. Judging from the global GDP ranking in 2021, the third -ranking Japan is only 17%with the economic scale of Germany.

Bird Yuxian predicts that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates in the second half of 2022, while the Bank of Japan has maintained a loose monetary policy. In this case, the future depreciation of the yen and the appreciation of the euro will continue. If the yen depreciates more than 1 euro against the key point of 150 yen, Japan's GDP will fall to the fourth place in the world will become a reality. At present, the total population of Germany is about 83.88 million, and the total population of Japan is about 1255.8 million. If the per capita GDP is compared, Germany has nearly $ 15,000 in Japan.

The August Trade Statistics of the Ministry of Finance in Japan on September 15 showed that due to the rise in energy prices and depreciation of the yen, the Japanese trade deficit in August was 2817.3 billion yen, the largest single -month deficit in history since 1979. This is the deficit of Japan's international trade revenue and expenditure for 13 consecutive months.

The report shows that due to the surge in international energy prices and the depreciation of the yen, especially the amount of energy imports such as coal, liquefied natural gas, and crude oil have increased significantly. In the month, Japan ’s imports increased by 49.9%to 10.88 trillion yen. During the same period, a record high.

At the same time, exchange rate fluctuations also bring another major hidden danger to the Japanese economy. According to the "Asian News Network" reported on the 21st, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike "boots landing", the huge amounts of funds held by Japanese families flowed overseas. The report quoted the Bank of America's chief foreign exchange and interest rate strategist in Tokyo that the yield between the two foreign exchange markets of the United States and Japan would stimulate institutional investors and retail investors to buy and hold the US dollar. Japanese families have a deposit of 100 million yen, and even if 0.1%of the "fleeing" will have a certain impact on the Japanese economy. It is reported that the savings of Japanese families have been increasing, and since the Japanese yen has continued to weaken this year, the yen's exchange rate to the US dollar has fallen by 20%. Tokyo JPMorgan Chase Securities Japan Market Research Supervisor said that the risk of fugitives of Japanese household capital is getting greater and should cause concerns about the Bank of Japan. The supervisor believes that the difference between Japan's trade difference has expanded to a record deficit, the weakness of the yen exchange rate, and the purchasing power of the people's gradually lost, so that the Japanese public feels that it needs to hold some foreign currencies to maximize a series of foreign currencies to avoid the maximum of the Japanese yen. risk.

The person in charge of the retail investment research institution gaitame.com said that at present, Japan still maintains a negative interest rate, which is "a environment that is very conducive to the flow of funds to overseas."

National competitiveness may decline

Mu Naeng Britain, an economist at Nomura Institute of Institute of Comprehensive in Japan, commented on the 21st that Japan suffered suffering from the depreciation of historic Japanese yen. Generally, the depreciation of the yen will help export companies to improve their international competitiveness, but individual consumers will have to bear the pain of high prices. The interest difference between Japan and the United States will lead to "Japan (Yuan) Ling Mei (Yuan) expensive" will continue for a long time, and the rise in prices will also become a long -term trend.

Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities' chief foreign exchange strategist Toshino Master Toshino said in an interview with the "Japan Economic News" earlier that the last time the Japanese yen depreciated was 1998, when the financial crisis was affected by the financial crisis. Japan's "color is strong, leading to the continuous depreciation of the yen. This time, in the background of the stagnation of Japan's exports, the yen depreciated, which reflects that as a country, Japan's essential competitiveness is declining.

Mizunjiu, president of the Central Economic Federation of Japan, previously said that the depreciation of the yen was not completely favorable for export companies. Mizuno Mizuno said: "It cannot be seen that with the depreciation of the yen, Japan's exports have increased significantly. Moreover, the manufacturing industry of Japanese automobiles is in a state of being unable to produce due to the limits of chips and components. Enterprises will make a profit from the devaluation of the yen, but the current situation, it is difficult to say that the depreciation of the yen has brought a wide range of positive results. "

Mizuno Mizun also believes that from the perspective of an enterprise, the excessive fluctuations of the yen exchange rate will bring uncertainty to the development plan of the enterprise. In order to stabilize the exchange rate, it is hoped that the government will take relevant measures and study to provide support to those companies that cannot enjoy the dividends of the yen.

Chen Yan, Executive Dean of the Chinese Research Institute of Japanese Enterprises, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 22nd that under normal circumstances, the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to overseas tourists traveling to Japan, but affected by the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, Japan’s The tourism and tourism industry did not get expected recovery and development. At the same time, due to the surge in global energy prices, the Fed's frequent interest rate hikes have repeatedly reached a record high in Japan, which led to the surge in domestic prices in Japan and offset the export competitiveness brought about by the weakening of the yen. High production costs and weak purchasing power are not good for Japanese companies.

Chen Yan believes that the weakening of the yen means that its economic index is under pressure, if the GDP will shrink sharply. Japan wants to enhance national strength and restore economic prosperity to change from two aspects: one is to innovate the administrative system; the other is to carry out technological innovation, promote the development of high value -added industries, focus on innovation breakthroughs in high -tech fields, guide the strengthening of the yen to strengthen Essence

Our newspaper's special reporter Yue Linwei

Reporter Pan Xiaotong Song Yi

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