The Fed announced that the three major indexes of the US stocks of 75 basis to raise interest rates have fallen by more than 1% of the public institutions that the impact on A shares is relatively limited
Author:Securities daily Time:2022.09.23
On September 21, local time of our reporter Chu Lijun, the US Federal Reserve announced 75 basis points to raise interest rates, raising the federal fund interest rate target range to 3.00%to 3.25%. Affected by this, the three major indexes of the US stocks fell more than 1%, and the Dow Jones Index fell 1.7%, down more than 500 points to 30183.78 points; the S & P 500 index fell 1.71% %, Reported at 11220.19 points. In this regard, Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute, who was interviewed by the reporter of the Securities Daily, said that in fact, before the September interest rate meeting was held, the market had expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates of 75 interest rates. Base point, therefore, the sharp interest rate hike basically meets the expectations. Judging from the Federal Reserve Chairman's meeting, controlling the inflation value in a reasonable range is still the main goal of the Fed. In the context of the core inflation and stickiness, the pressure of interest rate hikes will still be large in the future. In terms of position, the possibility of turning monetary policy is less likely. It should be noted that, in the context of the Fed's continued tightening monetary policy, the risk of falling into decline in the US economy is still increasing. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that the Fed's interest rate hike is consistent with market expectations. This is also the level of interest rate hikes that have never been seen after the subprime loan crisis in 2008. While the resolution was released, the Federal Reserve announced the latest economic expectations, clearly outline the state of "stubbornness, economic slowdown, and raising interest rate hikes." Qin Hong, a senior analyst at Jin Bailin Consulting, told the Securities Daily that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates mainly because of two points. One is that geopolitical tensions have caused global inflation and are still high. The number of employees is strong, so the Fed's interest rate hike to suppress inflation is more clear, and there is still the possibility of further interest rate hikes this year. The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike also has a certain impact on the global capital market. What is the specific impact on the A -share market? Yingda Securities Li Daxiao said that the A -share market will inevitably be affected, but due to the different economic cycles of China and the United States, my country's CPI in August is only 2.5%. The monetary policy tends to be moderate and loose. The stock market's reverse investment has increased, and the relative valuation level of blue chip stocks attracts the level. After the news is clear, it is expected to enter a relatively independent tough stress, and it does not rule out the appearance of counterattacks at the right time. Chen Li believes that for A -shares, the Fed has continuously increased their interest rates for a certain risk transmission on A shares. The market risk aversion is heating up, and it will disturb the A -share market in the short term. But overall, the domestic liquidity is still ample in the second half of the year, and the macroeconomic has shown a steady recovery trend. In this context, it is expected that the A -share market is relatively limited to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. Qin Hong, who holds a similar point of view, believes that the Fed's interest rate hike is a bit stressful for A shares. It is mainly to worry about the expansion of Sino -US spreads. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of A -shares has slowed down. However, the ultimate trend of A shares depends on its own inner factors, and there will still be a possibility of further building a bottom -up in the future. Yang Delong believes that overall, the monetary policy environment facing the A -share market in the fourth quarter is still better than U.S. stocks. At present, the central bank of my country has not followed the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and its liquidity will be relatively abundant. The external factors of the Fed's interest rate hike have also been fully reacted in the adjustment of the market in the past three months, so there is not much room for further decline in the A -share market. It is expected to become an inflection point in the second half of the year in September. A better layout of the time window for the four quarters. With the gradual landing of stable economic policies, my country's economy is expected to go out of the situation in the fourth quarter. As the weathervane of the market, the A -share market is also expected to achieve better performance. From the perspective of economic transformation, new energy and consumption are still the two major directions of economic transformation. "The Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike has limited impact on A shares, which is more reflected in the psychological level, which will affect investor confidence to a certain extent. First, the interest rate hike is in line with market expectations. Release. Second, there is currently no bubble in A shares, the value stock is at a low valuation, and the valuation of growth stocks is gradually rational. Third, the Chinese and American stock economy is at different stages, and there are many means in China to stabilize the economy to stabilize the economy. It can also be seen that under the turn of monetary policy and fiscal policy this year, at present, the Chinese economy has continued to resume the development trend. "Liu Youhua, deputy director of the Wealth Research Department of Paiwang.com.
Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map.com | Zhang Xin Nucle
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