Fed's radical interest rate hikes not only "hard landing" risks intensified

Xinhua News Agency, Washington, September 21 (International Observation) The Fed's radical interest rate hikes not only "hard landing" risks intensified

Xinhua News Agency reporter Xiong Maoling

The Federal Reserve announced on the 21st announced the 75 basis points of interest rate hikes, which has been so sharply raising interest rates for the third time this year. The Federal Reserve reiterates its determination to fight high inflation and be alert to the serious consequences of prematurely relaxing monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve has accumulated a total of 300 basis points since March this year, which has led to a significant cooling in the US real estate market, the turbulence of the stock market, and the slowdown in economic growth. Analysts believe that the situation of inflation in the United States is still severe. The Fed continues to continue the radical interest rate hike policy, which may increase the unemployment rate, exacerbate the risk of "hard landing" in the economy, and bring greater risks to the world economy.

The interest rate hike path is more eagle

The Federal Reserve President Powell announced in June that the Federal Reserve ’s first interest rate hikes had raised interest rates for the first time in 28 years that 75 basis points raised 75 basis points were unusual, and it was expected that the interest rate hikes would not occur often. However, after the Federal Reserve's two -day monetary policy meeting ended on September 21, it was announced that the federal fund interest rate target range was raised between 75 basis points to 3%and 3.25%, which is the third time in just a few months.

Powell reiterated on the 21st of its eagle signal released in late August, that is, emphasizing the determination of the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation, and be alert to the serious consequences of premature relaxation of monetary policy and high inflation and solidification. He emphasized that if the Federal Reserve shrinks to reduce inflation, the public will eventually suffer more and longer pain.

Data from the US Department of Labor show that since March this year, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased by more than 8%year -on -year, maintaining a high level.

According to the latest quarterly economic forecast released by the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve officials have a medium to 4.4%of the Federal Fund interest rate at the end of this year, which is significantly higher than the June forecast of 3.4%. According to the current situation, the Federal Reserve still needs to raise interest rates to about 125 basis points in the next two meetings to reach the predicted value. Officials have a median prediction of federal funds at the end of next year by 4.6%, higher than 3.8%of the June forecast.

In a analysis report, Jey Byson, chief economist in Wells Fargo Securities, said in a analysis report that the Federal Reserve further increased its strength to inflation at the September meeting. The short -term interest rate trend gives a more eagle path forecast.

The Chicago Commodity Exchange "Fed Observation Tools" shows that as of the evening of the 21st, traders expect the probability of the Fed in November to raise interest rates in November more than 70%.

Economic prospects become more pessimistic

Some experts believe that the significant interest rate hikes of the 75 basis points of the Fed seem to become a "normal". This approach may push the unemployment rate, pierce the property market and the stock market bubble, push the US economy to a "comprehensive decline", and bring the world economy to the world economy More risks.

Destmond Rachman, an economist at the American Institute of Enterprise Research, told Xinhua News Agency that in order to control inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in a row, and at the same time, unprecedented speed reduced the balance sheet and recovered market liquidity. He believes that the Fed's monetary policy is too aggressive and insufficient consideration on the impact of policy lag, which may lead to an increase in unemployment rates.

According to quarterly economic forecasts, Fed officials' medium to the US unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 4.4%, which was 0.5 percentage points from the June forecast. The Federal Reserve officials have a median forecast of the year -on -year growth rate of GDP (GDP) in the fourth quarter of this year. The expectations of economic prospects are even more pessimistic.

Powell admits that in the process of curbing inflation and restoring price stability, it will be very challenging to achieve a relatively mild unemployment increase and achieve economic "soft landing". He said that if monetary policy needs to be further tightened to a more restrictive level, or tightening needs to continue, the possibility of "soft landing" will be reduced.

Dian Baker, a senior economist at the US Economic and Policy Research Center, believes that the Fed should pay more attention to further tightening the downward risk of policies, that is, pushing the US economy that has been hit hard into the decline.

Jeffrey Guman, CEO of the US Dual -Line Capital Corporation, said in an interview with the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) that the Fed should slow down the pace of interest rate hikes due to the economic recession. A recent survey by CNBC shows that the interviewees believe that the possibility of decline in the United States in the next 12 months is 52%.

Rahman said that the Fed's tough monetary policy position has made serious difficulties in the real estate market and also caused the bubble of the stock market and the credit market to be burst, which made him worry that the US economy will soon fall into a "comprehensive decline." In addition, the Fed's policy has also led to a sharp appreciation of the US dollar and the return of capital from an emerging market, which has worsened the world economy that was already very difficult.

[Editor in charge: Wang Yan]

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