Is the Federal Reserve's "pain" be directed to the outside world?

China News Agency, Beijing, September 22 (Reporter Xia Bin) The pace of the Fed's interest rate hike has not stopped or smaller.

In the early morning of the 22nd, Beijing time, the Fed announced that it had raised interest rate hikes 75 basis points, and raised the federal fund interest rate target range to 3%to 3.25%. This is the fifth interest rate hike this year, and it is also the third consecutive interest rate hike 75 basis points. This rate hike density and intensity are extremely rare.

Although the operation of 75 basis points in interest rate hikes again is expected to be expected to be released by the Federal Reserve on the future interest rate hike process.

Judging from the statement issued by the Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC), members agreed to the decision of the interest rate hike. The latest lattice map shows that the Fed expects that there are still 125 basis interest rate hikes from the end of the year, and from the mid -term perspective, the federal fund interest rate may maintain a high position for a longer period of time. The market believes that the dot matrix has passed a clear signal, that is, the future rate hikes will maintain high intensity and last longer.

Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said that when we assume that the US inflation decreases by an average of 0.1 percentage points month month month -an, the core inflation from the US September to November is expected to remain above 6%, while the core of the core of 10 to December December The inflation rate is expected to remain at 5.77%. Judging from the expectations of the Fed's President Powell and the latest interest rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve, the Fed's long -term terminal interest rate is expected to exceed 4.5%.

Powell said that in order to achieve the goal of reducing inflation, the US economy does not rule out the possibility of entering decline, and the labor market will also be soft, but this is "the pain that needs to be bear". How painful. "

Fed officials have previously acknowledged that the higher the interest rates they raised to calm their inflation, the greater the risk of damage to economic growth and employment. Powell said last month that this "will bring some pain to families and enterprises."

In order to solve the problem of the country's inflation, will the "pain" brought by the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike transmission outward? Li Zhan, chief economist of the China Merchants Fund Research Department, believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will undoubtedly restrain the monetary policy of the central banks of other countries, especially emerging economies. Emerging economies have to follow the interest rate hike.

Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Finance Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that many evidences show that the price of US prices will still be at a high level within a certain period of time. Therefore, in terms of prices, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and shrinkage will not end in the short term.

"From the perspective of global situations, uncertainty, epidemic, Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and retracting expectations still exist. Some emerging market countries may erupt in the financial crisis in the future, which will also support the US dollar exchange rate." Zhang Ming said.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that the Fed's radical tightening and the US bond interest rate broke the previous high. The negative impact on the non -US financial market or more violently, and the performance of non -US currency will be even more impacted. For example It will also be reflected in the euro and yen exchange rate.

Pang Ye, chief economist and director of research department of the Digang Federation Greater China, also believes that considering that the US economic recovery and labor market are still at a relatively interested level, the Fed continues to rely on the radical rate hike cycle to curb the inflation momentum, and the US dollar in the short term The probability of the index will continue to maintain an upward trend, which may cause funds to return to the United States from emerging markets and other major developed markets, which will continue to put pressure on non -US dollar asset prices and non -US dollar currency exchange rates.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is tightened. How should China respond? Pang Yan pointed out that considering that China's macroeconomic volume is expanding and stronger, the market -oriented reform of the exchange rate has enhanced China's resistance to external shocks, and at the same time, the autonomy and stability of the financial system are also increasing. limited.

"However, in order to cope with the external impact brought by the strong dollar, it should be committed to doing a good job of cross -cyclical design." Pang Ye said that on the one hand, it should continue to deepen the market -oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, and strengthen the expected management. Improve the macro -prudential management of cross -border financing, guide market entities to adhere to the concept of "risk neutrality", maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and on the other hand, we should continuously deepen financial openness and enhance the attraction of RMB assets in the country.

The People's Bank of China recently issued a post saying that the next step will continue to implement a stable monetary policy, adhere to me as the main and stable progress, take into account employment and stability, internal equilibrium and external balance, and strengthen the foundation of economic recovery development. No Fuck the big water and do not overdraw the future.

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