The US dollar is willful, and the euro encounters a depreciation storm

Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has fallen by more than 12%, and a few days ago, it has fallen below the 1: 1 parity mark, setting a minimum record in nearly 20 years. At present, Europe is suffering from problems such as energy crisis, high inflation, and risk of economic recession. With the further promotion of the Fed's interest rate hike, a large amount of funds flow out of Europe, and the euro is suffering from a depreciation storm.

Experts pointed out that the recent strong performance of the US dollar has put the euro under tremendous pressure. The dominant position of the US dollar in the international monetary system has given the United States a "arrogant privilege." The US radio interest rate hike only considers solving its own inflation problem. As for the impact of the US dollar to strengthen the developed countries and the world, the United States does not care.

The euro shows fatigue

In the past few days, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has wandered near the parity. According to the European Central Bank data, as of September 19, 1 euro was exchanged for $ 0.999, and a year ago, 1 euro could be exchanged for $ 1.171.

At the same time, the US dollar index hit a new high in 20 years. According to Reuters, the US dollar index has risen by nearly 15%this year, and hit a high point of 110.79 earlier this month. This rally may further strengthen during the year.

Since the beginning of this year, the Fed has begun dense interest rate hikes due to high inflation and other factors. It has raised interest rate hikes in March, May, June, and July, with a cumulative interest rate hike of 225 basis points.

The United States Cable Television News Network reported that, with the promotion of the Fed's radical tightening policy, the US dollar currency value has increased and crushed currency from all over the world, and developed countries are particularly serious. The Fed's trade weighted US dollar index has risen 10%of other developed economies this year, the highest level since 2002. The index reflects the competitiveness of the dollar's currency in trade partners.

The statistical results released by the World Bank also show that in the first seven months of this year, 27 non -US dollar currencies, 23 currencies, including euro and pounds, have depreciated the US dollar.

As the European Central Bank's currency policy was lagging behind the Federal Reserve at the same time, the US -Europe spreads increased, and a large amount of investment funds were leaving Europe. According to Bloomberg, German Bank quoted analysis agencies data pointed out that within a week of September 7, global fund managers have withdrawn 3.4 billion U.S. dollars from European stock funds, and the total amount of funds exported in the past 6 months has reached 83 billion U.S. dollars, of which Including giants such as Bellaide, a well -known US listed investment management group, and AMUNDI SA, a well -known European asset management company.

On the other side, the United States ushered in international capital. According to the Associated Press, the Federal Reserve ’s sharp interest rate hike expects to help the 10 -year US Treasury yield rolled more than 1.33%a year ago, reaching 3.44%. It is reported that the generous US Treasury yield is attracting investors from all over the world. When investors from Europe and Asia purchased U.S. Treasury bonds, they must replace their currency with US dollars, which has pushed the value of the US dollar.

According to Bloomberg, former US Secretary of Finance Samers recently said that the United States is the "sacred place for capital." In view of a series of fundamental factors behind the US dollar, the US dollar also has room for further appreciation. The important point is that the United States does not rely on "extremely expensive foreign energy".

US dollar overflow

Since the beginning of this year, US monetary policy has shifted from quantitative easing policy after the outbreak of the epidemic to radical tightening, causing a sharp fluctuation in the global foreign exchange market.

Yi Xianrong, a professor at the School of Economics of Qingdao University, told the People's Daily reporter that the current international monetary system is still dominated by the US dollar, and it is difficult to shake the US dollar status in the middle period. Under this system, the Fed's monetary policy is not only the domestic monetary policy of the United States and serving its own economic goals, and its every move will also have a huge impact on the international financial market. Recently, the Fed's currency policy has shrunk, which may cause financial risks and even financial crises in the euro zone and emerging markets.

According to the data composition of the global official foreign exchange reserve currency issued by the International Monetary Fund, in the first quarter of 2022, the total global foreign exchange reserves were US $ 1.255 trillion, of which USD 6.88 trillion US dollars, the share of 58.88%, and the fourth fourth last year The quarter is flat. The US dollar is still the world's most widely held reserve currency.

Guo Hongyu, a professor at the School of Finance at the University of Foreign Economics and Trade, told the people's Daily that the primary goal of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was to solve the problem of American itself, that is, to respond to inflation. However, because the US dollar is the main currency of international reserves and international settlement, the adjustment of US monetary policy adjustment will have an overflow effect, which also makes it easier for the United States to use the advantages of the US dollar to decentralized risks. At present, under the influence of the Fed's continuous interest rate hike, the US dollar asset yields have increased, and more investors choose to hold US dollar assets, leading to the return of the US dollar and further strengthening the US dollar.

At the same time, the characteristics of the euro zone's own system also affect the ability of the euro zone for financial risks.

The mechanism of "unified monetary policy and unified fiscal policy 'in the euro zone, as well as the current situation of imbalanced development between member states, has made it difficult to formulate and implement the establishment and implementation of the European Central Bank, which is not conducive to the timely changes in the external situation in the euro zone. "Guo Hongyu said.

"Behind the euro is 19 decentralized sovereign countries. Once there is a problem with the guarantee system, the euro will have higher risks." Yi Xianrong said, "The current risk aversion effect of the US dollar has improved objectively, and international capital accelerates from outflow from the euro area. Coupled with speculative capital attacks, the euro exchange rate fluctuates. "

The root is the United States

Today, Russia's television station has quoted Russian experts recently that the United States is using the deterioration of the Ukrainian situation and the strength of the US dollar to "harvest Europe". As the United States has replaced Russia and has become the most important country that provides expensive oil and natural gas to Europe, the United States has made a lot of money from it. Tan Yaling, an independent economist of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, told a reporter from the People's Daily that the United States is the promoter behind Russia and Ukraine's conflict. It is the Russian and Ukraine conflict that has caused tension between European energy and food. These two fatal problems have triggered high European inflation, which has caused a large impact and suppression on the European macroeconomic economy, which has led to the euro below the affairs of the US dollar and the increasingly downturn.

"The depreciation of the euro is directly related to the competitive strategy of the US dollar." Tan Yaling said, "The special status of the US dollar is an important guarantee for the US economy, so the United States attaches great importance to maintaining the US dollar status. The attack is led by. The euro has been divided into the market share of the US dollar since the birth of the euro, which makes the United States particularly dissatisfied. Turning the euro and disintegrating the euro is the ultimate demand of the US dollar. The shortcomings and weaknesses have successfully entered inflation to the euro zone, causing the euro to depreciate and the euro area in trouble. But in the long run, this intention of regional cooperation is a destructive factor. "

Liu Mingli, a researcher at the European Research Institute of the Chinese Institute of Modern International Relations, told a reporter from the People's Daily that the US dollar hegemony enables the United States to enjoy "arrogant privileges", which means that the United States can do it and only be responsible for its own economic goals. When the economy needs to be boosted, the United States stimulate economic growth through quantitative easing; when inflation is high, the United States is curbed through interest rate hikes. As for how these adjustments will have on European and other economies, it is not within the scope of the United States.

"In view of the international status of the US dollar, the choice of monetary policy in the United States will inevitably affect other economies, which often contains huge risks, while the decision makers in the United States are not responsible for these risks." Liu Mingli said, "This confirms the US Nixon government A word from the Minister of Finance Connery: 'USD is our currency, but it is your trouble.' "

"The euro is the target of the United States for a long time. After the international financial crisis in 2008, in order to suppress the euro and maintain the currency hegemony, the United States used the dominant position of the US dollar to the euro zone, which severely impacted European financial security. The euro zone even faced once facing The risk of disintegration. "Liu Mingli said," This time, although the depreciation of the euro may not be caused by the subjective suppression of the euro in the United States, it is more reflected in the euro exchange rate of the economic fundamentals of the euro zone. The advantage of the US dollar highlights the weakness of the euro of competitors, and then consolidates the US dollar hegemony. "

European powerless

Affected by the shortage of energy, inflation, and interest rate hikes in the European Central Bank, the market is concerned about the economic prospects of the euro zone. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank once again increased the inflation forecast of the euro zone again. It is expected that the inflation rates will reach 8.1%and 5.5%, respectively, which are far higher than the target of 2%. The depreciation of the euro will further exacerbate inflation. The European Central Bank's judgment that the economic growth of the euro zone will be slowed and may be stagnant, and the economic growth rate will drop from 3.1%this year to 0.9%next year.

Monetary depreciation against the US dollar often means favorable exports to the United States. However, the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar this year has greatly increased the cost of imports of commodities. The latest trade data from the German Federal Statistics Bureau shows that Germany, known for its exporter, even has the first trade deficit for more than 30 years. Import costs have risen to further crack down on market expectations for European economic prospects, which has frustrated the euro exchange rate.

At the European Central Bank conference on September 8, the European Central Bank governor Lagarde expressed concern about the euro falling 12%this year, saying that it exacerbated the pressure of inflation and hinted that it would adopt more radical policies. In this regard, the Swiss Patek Wealth Management reported that the European Central Bank could not help the US dollar. "Regardless of whether the European Central Bank's policy has become tougher and whether the economic prospects have improved, it will usually be offset by further strengthening the US dollar."

"The United States has increasingly regarded the US dollar as a weapon." The French "World News" website quoted analysts and said that for decades, the United States has been suffering from "double deficit", that is, national fiscal deficit and regular account deficit. Therefore, the United States has seriously relied on other parts of the world to raise financing. "The United States has been using the role of" Global Bank Governor "." The report said.

Volatility caused by the US dollar proves that the status of the US dollar as the international leading currency still has not changed, but this does not mean that the US dollar's strong status will be eternal.

"The United States is good at using the powerful payment tools of the US dollar to impose sanctions, but this is also a 'double -edged sword' itself for the US dollar itself." Guo Hongyu said, "The US sanctions on Russia's financial finance have led to more relying on the euro in Russia's foreign energy transactions. With the settlement of rubles, many countries have also begun to explore the "US dollar", which inevitably reduces the proportion of the US dollar in the international currency payment system. 60%, but if its payment function continues to decline, it will inevitably affect the US dollar as the function of international reserve currency. "

"The current US Treasury bonds are close to $ 31 trillion, exceeding 120%of GDP. The US abuse of monetary hegemony against Russia will also become the risk of US dollars." Liu Mingli said, "Although the current US dollar is strong, from the long -term perspective, the economic risks of the United States in the United States, the economic risks of the United StatesStill big. "

"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (September 22, 2022)

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