I am in the mother and baby shop, I dare not tell customers about the price of milk powder

After years of "post -disaster reconstruction" adjustment, my country's infant formula milk powder industry has formed the most stringent supervision in the world. The participating companies have gone through many "big waves and sand". Today, domestic brands in the milk powder market shall not be less than 65 %. The new national standard that will be implemented in February next year will usher in a new round of major adjustments to the baby powder industry. In the future, one -third of the brand may be eliminated.

Author 丨 Editor Qi Minqian 丨 Liu Xiaoying

In the past two years, my country's infant formula milk powder industry has once again reached the turning point.

The decline in birth rate has led to a slowdown in the industry's growth rate. In addition, the new national standard of milk powder will be implemented in February 2023. The infantile powder industry has once again ushered in a new round of elimination. Dairy expert Song Liang believes that about one -third of the brand will be eliminated after the new national standard.

In my country's consumer industry, infantile powder is extremely special. Since the emergence of the 1980s and 1990s, the industry has maintained an ultra -high -speed growth. It has also been beaten into the valley because of food safety issues such as melamine, and domestic milk powder once lost the trust of consumers.

After many years of "post -disaster reconstruction" adjustment, my country's infant distribution industry has formed the most stringent supervision in the world. The participating companies have also gone through many "big waves and sand", and finally stood up to allow domestic brands to occupy the milk powder market in the milk powder market. The rate is not less than 65%.

Today, the implementation of the new national standard is imminent, and the horn full of the story sounds again, and the change has arrived.

01. Or one -third of the brand is eliminated

In 2022, many practitioners in the infant powder industry felt that business was not good.

Zhao De, who runs the mother and baby shop, faces the current situation of his own store: "It can make 20,000 every month a month ago, and now it is good to lose money." The difficulty of selling terminals such as maternal and infant shops, in addition to the decline in traffic, is also in the price war.

In a live broadcast of the mother and baby industry, a senior practitioner said: "The biggest pain point of the mother and baby shop is milk powder." This view immediately triggered the resonance of many mother and baby shop owners. Customers say the price, even more afraid that the customer will ask the milk powder as soon as possible.

This is because the price of maternal and infant shops cannot imagine how low the price of competitors can be. In Zhao De's words: "What is 50 yuan in price, I sell 60 yuan, others can sell 55 or even 45 yuan for traffic. This is not the case in the past few years."

The price war in this round of channels began in 2020. The birth rate is declining and the product homogeneity is serious. The infant powder has changed from an incremental market to stock competition. The inventory pressure is the root cause of the outbreak of the price war.

Above the channel dealers, infantile powder producers also face the pressure of growth. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, my country's liquid milk production increased by 9.68%year -on -year, while milk powder production increased by only 1.76%.

In the first half of 2022, almost all of the milk powder companies listed on the market declined year -on -year. Among them, Yashili International revenue fell 12.5%year -on -year in the first half of this year, with a net loss of 159 million yuan. Australia Youyou's revenue in the first half of the year fell 15.1%year -on -year, and the net profit attributable to the mother fell by about 63%year -on -year. Even the infant pink leader Flying Crane also has a decline in revenue and net profit growth.

This is still the case, and the small brands under the price war are even more sad. The new national standard of milk powder that is about to implement in February 2023 has accelerated the speed of being eliminated by small brands.

The new national standard of milk powder includes "Food Safety National Standard Infant Food Food" (GB 10765-2021), "Food Safety National Standard Formula (GB 10766-2021) and" Food Safety National Formula Food Food ".

Under the previous old national standards, the second and third sections shared the same standard, and the new national standards had different standards for the second and third sections. The owner of a mother and baby shop told the city industry: "Consumers still care about the new national standard. ","

In addition, the new national standard of milk powder is also based on Chinese breast milk research, which has also been adjusted in nutritional and optional ingredients such as protein and fat. "The new national standard can be said to be the highest and best in the world," Song Liang said.

Such high standards have also allowed infant powder to reach a new round of shuffling, because the new national standard registration has high requirements for scientific research and funds of the enterprise. Small enterprises will naturally be eliminated if they cannot register.

According to Song Liang, it takes at least eight months to complete the new national standard registration, and it costs more than 10 million yuan. In his opinion, since 2018, companies have been eliminated every year, and this new national standard may be eliminated.

The strong head -of -head enterprises naturally occupy the advantage in the industry's shuffling. It is not difficult for them to develop and register through the new national standard. It is just that each company will determine the rhythm of the new national standard listing according to its own objective conditions.

At present, Feihe has launched four products that meet the new national standards, and Elijin collar crown and Junlebao have also launched related products.

As small companies are eliminated, the competition pattern of head companies will also be relatively stable, and the milk powder industry will soon end the price war in recent years, and once again reached a state of stability and balance.

02. Once fell from the peak

Although the growth rate of the infantile powder industry has slowed down in the bottleneck period in recent years, various companies have also been connected by soldiers. They use price wars to "kill the enemy a thousand and damage 800", but this is far from the most difficult time in the industry. The melamine incident that broke out in 2008 is the dark time that the industry will never forget. Prior to 2008, my country's milk powder industry was a hot and hot, and in today's words, it was spent for many years on the "wind".

From time to time, my country's milk powder industry has developed late, and the earliest production of milk powder is a state -owned dairy factory. In 1984, my country first took the dairy industry as the development direction and focus of the main industry, and the dairy industry opened the road of rapid development.

As a segment of the dairy industry, infant formula milk powder has developed later. Domestic brands such as Yili, Yashili and Shengyuan have begun to produce baby powder in the 1990s.

Although the development was late, the high birth rate and the level of urbanization at that time still made baby powder "fragrant", and the market supply was in short supply.

Zhang Liang, the founder of Shengyuan, once recalled the milk powder market in the 1990s: "At that time, you wanted to use ten boxes of milk powder to find milk powder. Sometimes it was useless even if you found it. The agent's truck lined up at the door of the milk powder production workshop every day.

Such a grand occasion lasted for many years. Data show that the market size of infant powder with pour in my country in 2004 was 13.2 billion yuan. By 2007, this data had increased to 28 billion yuan, doubled in three years.

Because the industry is easy to do, at that time, many milk powder brands did not even have their own production plants. They found a foundry at home or abroad to focus on brand and market expansion. They can also develop well.

Do not raise cattle, do not master milk sources, only do milk processing, sales, and quickly snatch the market. It was almost the conventional operation of most dairy products at that time.

In 1986, Sanlu Group encountered a dilemma of growth: on the one hand, the product supply was in short supply, and on the other hand, the group's own breeding cow had limited milk and the supply of fresh milk was insufficient. At that time, the factory leaders decided to send cows to the countryside, sell them to farmers, and collect milk from their hands, and then sell milk powder into the city.

"Cow to the countryside" reduced Sanlu's investment. At first, the company cooperated with the surrounding farmers, and later expanded to other provinces. With the extension of the breeding base, Sanlu became my country's first milk powder company to operate nationwide. In 1995, Sanlu was advertised during the golden period of CCTV. Since then, it has been "called king" in my country's milk powder industry for more than ten years.

Sanlu's "cow goes down the countryside, milk powder enters the city" model, which has caused the industry to follow up. A survey report in the 2008 Dairy Association showed that the company's self -built cow field accounted for 10%-15%of the total milk source, and more than 60%of the farmers who were raised.

Do not do the breeding of assets by themselves, which provides a support for the rapid development of dairy companies, but at the same time, they also bury them a "thunder".

When the market is good, the milk source is fragrant, and the dairy factories must grab the acquisition. In this process, the wealthy giants are always more advantageous.

According to the "Southern Weekend" report, at the 2004 Dairy Industry Association Annual Conference, a Shandong dairy company boss suddenly closed the manuscript prepared in advance, accusing two listed companies in the industry to "grab milk" at high prices in the local area. Participants heard blood, and some even stood at the table and applauded.

When the market is not too prosperous, the demand for milk is not so large, and dairy farmers have to give gifts to allow employees of dairy companies to collect milk. Moreover, the milk source is in the hands of individual households or milk stations, and the enterprise and the government will easily have problems if they are not in place. In order to make milk meet the acquisition requirements, farmers even have "milk regulators". In order to make money, someone started to adulte it secretly in milk.

In 2008, the "melamine" incident that shocked the whole country broke out. The chaos in my country's dairy industry was pushed from the "gray zone" to the stage at once. At that time, the domestic milk powder boss Sanlu collapsed directly, and many companies were found out that there was a problem, and the industry competition pattern changed.

03. Winning trust

After 2008, many consumers lost their trust in domestic milk powder. Foreign milk powder brands took advantage of the market to occupy my country's market. my country's local brands were "crowded" to the sinking market

Gao Hongbin, Honorary President of the China Dairy Association, shared such a set of data: Before the melamine incident, the market share of domestic milk powder was 65%, and then plunged to less than 30%, and only 15%in first -tier cities.

A few years ago, the "milk powder purchasing" in New Zealand, Australia and other places was very popular, and the Chinese even often "moved" local milk powder shelves.

For the Chinese dairy industry, those "shame" time is almost called.

In 2012, Wei Lihua, chairman of Junlebao Dairy, went to Germany to participate in a expo. After settling in Germany, almost everyone in the delegation except him was to buy infant milk powder, and It is a box to buy. Wei Lihua recalled that in this trip, he was embarrassed to tell others that he was making dairy products in China.

With the lesson of "melamine", domestic dairy companies have begun to pay more attention to milk source construction and food safety. In the past ten years, self -built milk sources and improved quality; through market and channel innovation, it is the "main theme" of the domestic milk powder industry from the market and channel innovation.

In the process of re -rise of milk powder in my country, policy guidance plays a vital role.

Due to the high profits of infants, there are more than 2,000 infant powder brands in my country. In 2016, my country's infant formula milk powder began to implement the formula registration system. According to the regulations, a factory produced up to 3 series and 9 formulas. A large number of unsatisfactory small brands were delisted without approval. Most companies registered by the formula have a certain scale and strength. In industry integration, head companies have more advantages. They have begun to work in the construction of milk sources, product research and development, and channels.

At present, domestic brands such as Feihe, Yili and Junlebao have their own milk sources and production factories in China. Many companies, such as Mengniu, Australia You, and Shengyuan, will also put milk sources and factories abroad through the acquisition of foreign companies.

In terms of channels, KA channels such as Shang Chao were the main channels of milk powder in my country. After 2008, the mother and baby store rose rapidly. Five years later, e -commerce developed rapidly into a new channel. Nielsen data shows that from 2011 to 2020, the proportion of maternal and infant store channels increased from 33%to 69%.

The changes in channels brought the opportunity to overtaking curve to our local milk powder brands. For example, the rise of Feihe is related to the company's rising channel dividends.

After more than ten years of development, domestic infants with powder with market performance have been climbed up from the bottom of the valley. In 2020, the market share of domestic infant formula milk powder has reached 54%, exceeding foreign brands. Experts expect that the number in 2021 is not less than 65%.

After 30 years of ups and downs, domestic milk powder has fallen over, and it is also slowly standardized and rising. Nowadays, the most stringent new national standard in the world is as soon as possible, and domestic milk powder has reached the industry's reshuffle again.

At the new stage, it is hoped that domestic milk powder will not only increase the market share, but also the trust of consumers.

Reference materials: "Mother and Baby · China: Dairy Chaser", Bao Yating

"Brand of the Maternal and Infant Industry: Memoirs of the Milk Powder Industry Twenty Years, the Rise of Domestic Rise", Founder Securities

"China Dairy Crisis Tracence: Establishing Opportunities for Establishment Multiple Opportunities for 8 Years", Southern Weekend

(Except for the sources alone, the above pictures are from Visual China)

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