20 billion VS 5 billion, "dehydration" Little Red Book, is it worth the money?

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If even China's most "not bad money" head investment institution feels that a company "can't afford", it is probably that this company is too expensive -such as Xiaohongshu.

According to the report of 36 氪, in the last round of financing of Xiaohongshu last year, the valuation of up to $ 20 billion- "Financial Story" was informed that at that time, Xiaohongshu also threw the olive branches to the above -mentioned head investment institutions, the latter Known as a big investment, the story of actively increasing the investment quota when seeing high -quality targets has been talked about by the industry. "

But in the face of Xiaohongshu, the above -mentioned agencies finally retreated -after careful judgment, I felt that the price of Xiaohongshu was too high.

The valuation of 20 billion US dollars is about 4 times the current market value of Weibo, 20 times the market value of the market, and 2 times the market value of station B. The market value/valuation is simple and the value of the monthly act is to calculate the value of a single user. Little Red Book of 200 million monthly live, the value of a single user is about $ 100, and the B station is about $ 35. Weibo is about $ 8.6.

The valuation may deviate from the value for a while, but the value will always return to the anchor point and squeeze out the foam.

The partner of another investment institution told "Financial Story" that he felt that the reasonable valuation of Xiaohongshu should be around $ 5 billion. Its single user is indeed valuable than Weibo and knowledge, but it should not be so outrageous. "

Since the last round of financing of Xiaohongshu last year, it has been in July. China stocks have fallen collectively. As a reference target B station, its US stock price has fallen from nearly 90 US dollars in November last year. By the current $ 26.32, more than two -thirds of the decline. If the timeline is pulled longer, the stock price of station B is peak of more than 150 US dollars.

There is also a "red brand" perfect diary with Xiaohongshu. A week ago, a media founder and mobile Internet investor asked questions in the circle of friends, why Taobao hatched a bunch of Amoy brands, but Xiaohongshu did not hatch red brands. He got a answer -the perfect diary may be considered " Red brand.

In April, the perfect diary parent company Yixian e -commerce received a warning letter from the New York Stock Exchange -according to the regulations of the New York Stock Exchange, if the average closing price of 30 consecutive trading days was lower than $ 1, Yixian e -commerce will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be will be being. It is deemed to be lower than the compliance standards, and its stock price and average stock price must be pulled back to more than $ 1 within 6 months, otherwise it will be delisted.

Two months later, as of June 20, the stock price of Yixian e -commerce was 0.783 US dollars, and it was still below $ 1. The market value was only US $ 495 million. Compared with the highest point, the market value of Yixian e -commerce has evaporated more than 90%.

Relying on the large -scale "grass" in the small red book, the perfect diary stands out from a group of domestic beauty brands, and the parent company Yixian e -commerce is self -contained in China's "L'Oreal".

However, today's Yixian e -commerce is "surrendering" Little Red Book -the insiders of Yixian e -commerce told "Financial Story" that the company is compressed by the overall marketing budget, and the amount of launch on Xiaohongshu will also significantly reduces the amount of significant reduction in Xiaohongshu. However, the perfect diary turned around on the original vibrato, which increased the investment.

The above information has also confirmed a statement by Huang Jinfeng, the chairman and CEO of Yixian E -commerce in May. He acknowledged that the team was not enough to operate the "interest e -commerce" such as the operation of Douyin. Some "curiosity and humility".

At the same time, the vibrato of the "interest e -commerce" is increasing, and it is also trying to expand the content ecosystem of "graphic grass" in the Douyin APP.

The aggressive vibrato came, but when the fast hands, Zhihu, Tencent, and Ali were adding "grass content", Xiaohongshu still did not pass through the commercial channel from "planting grass" to "grass".

20 billion estimates "dehydration"

When the situation is good, high growth can bring high valuations to the enterprise. The high valuation of Xiahongshu 20 billion US dollars is inseparable from its good upward trend.

In November 2021, according to the report of 36 氪 at the time, Temasek Temasek, Tencent Investment, Alibaba, Tiantu Investment, and Yuansheng Capital injected 500 million US dollars for Xiahongshu, and the valuation rose to $ 20 billion.

At that time, the Internet content community was the darling of the secondary market. At the station B, which was highly regarded by the community value, the US stock price hit a record high, and the market value once exceeded 60 billion US dollars.

If the market value/valuation peak of the two may be roughly obtained, the overall value of Xiaohongshu should be about one -third of station B. Today, the market value of station B has shrunk to about $ 10.2 billion. Based on this as a ruler, perhaps, the fair valuation of Xiaohongshu should also shrink significantly.

According to QUEST Mobile data, the number of users in Xiahongshu in 2021 is the growth rate. In August 2021, Xiahongshu's MAU had exceeded 130 million, DAU exceeded 45 million, a year -on -year increase of more than 70%. During the same period, Station B, which was just listed in Hong Kong stocks, MAU in the second quarter of 2021 was 237 million, and DAU was 62.7 million. According to US stock data on November 5, 2021, the market value of station B at that time was US $ 28.7 billion.

Under the data at that time, the value of a single user was compared with a single user value. Xiaohongshu was about $ 153.8, and station B was about $ 121.

Station B and Xiaohongshu are also head Internet products with the growth rate of more than 30%of active users in 2021. However, due to the global economic trend, the original secondary market darling has no longer scenery this year. As of today, the U.S. stock price of station B is $ 26.32, which has fallen by two -thirds compared with the high stock price of last November.

The market value of station B is dehydrated and the valuation myth is shaken. It also needs to tell new stories that are more moving. In the case of poor economic growth, the "profit" signal can bring confidence to the secondary market. Almost overnight, all Internet companies have begun to "speed up and increase efficiency."

Of course, Xiaohongshu also wants to tell new stories in commercialization, but its commercial dilemma is also progressive.

First of all, the revenue sector of Xiaohongshu is relatively single, and the ability to resist risks is poor. According to 36 氪, Xiaohongshu's income consists of two parts: "advertising+e -commerce". pillar. Affected by the economic trend, the growth rate of Internet advertising business is slowing down. According to data from the forward -looking research institute, in the first quarter of 2022, Internet advertisements increased slightly slightly by 1.4%. Among them, Tencent's advertising revenue fell 18%year -on -year and Baidu fell 4%.

At the same time, consumption downgrade is also affecting the "grass" economy that affects Xiaohongshu. In 2020, the revenue of Xiaohongshu's advertising business increased three times, to $ 6-800 million, accounting for about 80%of the total revenue. Beauty and beauty care are the two major categories of Xiaohongshu's advertising revenue.

Affected by factors such as the epidemic, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the retail sales of cosmetics category in March were 34.5 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 6.3%. This is the first decline in the retail sales of cosmetics market in two years. Most brands have reduced the budget accordingly. Among them, according to the financial report of the parent company Yixian e -commerce, the brand's perfect diary in Q1 in Q1 was 570 million yuan in Q1 in 2022, a decrease of 45%year -on -year from Q1 in Q1 in Q1 2021.

This means that Xiaohongshu must drive growth through e -commerce.

The market value of the secondary market community platform has fallen sharply, and the brand release is also tending to rational and reduced the budget. This is not good news for Xiaohongshu, which mainly rely on advertising.

How long does it take to go from planting grass to grass?

The commercial link from planting grass to grass is the only solution to the commercial dilemma of the current little red book.

Unlike station B and Douyin, the starting point is only a small red book of "Outbound Shopping Raiders PDF", with natural "consumption" attributes. As early as 2014, Xiaohongshu wanted to complete its own grass planting to pulling up to pulling up. The business closed loop of grass.

In December 2014, Xiaohongshu launched the e -commerce "welfare agency". In January 2015, Xiaohongshu Zhengzhou self -operated bonded warehouse was officially put into operation; territory.

However, due to the influence of cross -border e -commerce policies, the development of "welfare agencies" subsequently stagnated. In 2017, Xiaohongshu founder Qu Fang said in an interview with Pindu.com that "Xiaohongshu is not an e -commerce company, but a playground." Then, Xiaohongshu turned to focus on the operation of the content field.

With the gradual expansion of the content layout, the community content of Xiaohongshu currently covers beauty, food, travel, maternal and infant, home and home improvement, and users have gradually achieved gender balance.

In July last year, the person in charge of the content of the Xiaohongshu community announced that it had reached 30%of the men in the middle of Xiaohongshu.

According to the "2022 Qiangua Active User Portrait Portrait Report (Xiaohong Book Platform)" released by Qiangua Data at the end of March, there are currently more than 200 million months of living users, of which 72%are 90%, 50%are distributed in one one in one one In second -tier cities, a total of 43 million+ sharedrs, of which the proportion of men and women's users has risen to 3: 7. It has good consumption capacity and is the foundation of the "grass" economy of Xiaohongshu.

Due to the lagging development of the platform e -commerce and focusing on the construction of the community atmosphere, the "grass" platform of Xiaohongshu "planting grass" platform has already formed user habits. If you want to achieve "grass" to "grass" to "grass" to "grass" to "grass" to The inner circulation of "pulling grass" is obviously not enough to rely on users.

Earlier this year, Xiaohongshu adjusted its organizational structure, merged the original community department and the e -commerce department into a new community department, and began a series of community governance.

Community governance is divided into two major blocks, on the one hand, for content.

According to the official data of Xiaohongshu, in 2021, for false promotion behaviors, Xiaohongshu officially launched the "Woodpecker" plan to monitor the related relationship of brands and promotion notes. In December last year, Xiaohongshu banned 81 brands with illegal marketing behaviors, 24 offline merchants, handled 172,600 related notes, 53,600 violations of regulations, and permanently banned Difen, Lu Ling, Wonderland, flowers, flowers 29 brands in half a day.

In addition, Xiaohongshu also launched the new rules "brand violations." Skip the blogger and the brand's side to the platform, and directly or indirectly carry out paid content cooperation, such as the payment of the payment of the cost of the other person, the benefit or resource replacement with others, and the act of rework to others. Essence Further divide marketing content and autonomous grass content, thereby trying to help users save decision -making time.

On the other hand, community governance is to build "grass -pulling" infrastructure.

On August 2, 2021, Xiaohongshu launched a new "number of stores" mechanism. The user account no longer divides the enterprise number, individual number, etc., only professional numbers and non -professional numbers. Among them The threshold for the Lord in Xiaohongshu. After a period of free development, on May 6, 2022, Xiaohongshu released the latest "Community Commercial Convention". The convention clearly proposed that "please complete transactions in the platform and protect the rights and interests of buyers and sellers." Digestion to the station through the convention to reduce traffic overflow.

In addition, Xiaohongshu, as Douyin just started to lay out "interest e -commerce", cooperates with other e -commerce platforms to rely on its mature brand merchant resources and global supply chain system to build e -commerce ecology through cooperation. In May of this year, JD International officially announced that it will settle in Xiaohongshu and will cooperate with Xiaohong Book Fair in the form of official account numbers and official stores.

What needs time. In the construction of e -commerce platforms, compared with the Douyin fast hands that have been deeply cultivated for many years, and even relying on the Douyin Kuaishou, which rely on live broadcast roads, the construction of the supply chain system and the after -sales system, Xiaohongshu still has a long way to go.

The content supervision is not as smooth as Xiao Hongshu imagined. Once a free -growth community starts to commercialize, the difficulty of supervision has further increased. Due to the "excessive commercialization" of the content, there are "Little Red Book filters", and Xiaohongshu has been pushed on hot search many times.

Big head factories collectively siege

The greater crisis is that the little red book with a small advantage in the content ecology is encountering a comprehensive siege of many large manufacturers.

As early as 2020, Tencent hatched e -commerce projects called Little Goose Fighting, invested a lot of funds and WeChat traffic support. I hope to build a community with goods such as the main form of grass and other forms of grass -based grass. Essence

On April 30 this year, Tencent announced that Xiaoye was stopped to stop the service, but Tencent's enthusiasm for the "grass planting community" did not die. In June, Tech Star reported that during the period of stopping the small goose, Tencent registered the new grass planting project "Penguin Hui Bu", which is still in the low -key test stage. Little goose products.

Coincidentally, in 2020, Taobao upgraded the buyer show community to "Taobao strolling", hoping to establish Taobao content planting grass positions, which was once called Taobao version of Xiaohongshu by a large number of users. According to Taobao data, as of November 2021, Taobao's monthly living users exceeded 200 million, and the daily viary peak exceeded 50 million, comparing the shoulders of the same period.

In addition, in the Double 11 in 2021, Ali also launched the "double 11 kinds of grass machines" "to add grass planting communities.

Compared with Xiaohongshu, although the construction of Taobao's shopping in the content ecology is still time, but its rich commodity supply, a large number of resident merchants, and the complete closed loop from planting grass to grass, it is a small red book. Can't reach.

In addition to Ali Tencent, other large manufacturers also have their own actions. There are many "small circles". Jingdong also works for the "grass show", and even Zhihu has also begun to cut into the grass track and launch the app "Chao".

Xiaohongshu's e -commerce performance in the same period is too much behind. In early 2021, Douyin e -commerce settled the goal of 1 trillion yuan GMV in 2021, and the final reaching rate was expected to be about 80 %. Kuaishou's financial report shows that in 2021, fast -handed e -commerce GMV reached 680 billion yuan.

According to the "2021 Little Red Book Brand Research Report" released by the Head Panther Research Institute, the revenue of Xiaohongshu in 2021 is mainly composed of advertising and e -commerce. The share of the two is 80%and 20%. The revenue of e -commerce business has not yet achieved large -scale growth. This ratio is no different from the data disclosed by Xiaohongshu in 2020. In 2020, the revenue of Xiaohongshu e -commerce is about 150 million to 200 million US dollars, accounting for about 20%of the total revenue.

Fortunately, return to the content of the "weed", whether it is depth or breadth, from professionalism to extensiveness, more than 43 million small red books have their own advantages. In the grass planting community, it is still difficult to really ban the value of Xiaohongshu.

However, in the construction of the e -commerce sector, the vibrato, which also started to force after 2019, is much more efficient than Xiaohongshu. From the content to e -commerce, Douyin has completed the closed loop from "planting grass" to "grass" earlier.

According to the official data of Douyin E -commerce, there are more than 200 million short videos and 9 million live broadcast content on the platform. These contents have stimulated user interests and attracted their stays, interaction, and ordering. This promoted the sales of more than 10 billion pieces of goods by Douyin e -commerce last year.

The vibrato of "Interesting E -commerce" relying on the live air outlet of the back is not satisfied with this. With the support of the short video content, Douyin is also testing the new grass function, changing the likes of the short video to the "Planting grass", adding the function of "notes" and adding "baby", and the product link can be hung in the content of the grass, allowing users to directly plant the grass.

In addition, Douyin also increased the construction of graphic content simultaneously. In addition to the options released by new graphics, open the top menu bar of Douyin. In the original city, attention and recommendation, the "Exploration" option is added. The content of the graphic and the video includes it.

For the creators who have already shared high -quality graphic content on Douyin, Douyin will give certain incentives and support plans.It is reported that Douyin continuously launched the "Spring Day Graphic Partner Plan" from March-April, April, April to June, to meet the high-quality graphic content of high-quality graphic and text content that conforms to the high-quality graphic and text content such as good food, spring day, spring day, and good things in spring day.Give traffic rewards, official guidance, etc.- "Copy" the ambition of a little red book, it is clear.Extending its attention overseas, the byte beating has been a "little yellow book" earlier. Earlier, byte beating has created the "content grass community app" LEMON8 in Japan, Thailand and other regions.

In front of the enemy, before completing the commercial closed loop, the valuation of Xiaohongshu should indeed squeeze the foam in a timely manner.

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