Lack of endogenous motivation, the Japanese economy falls into a "strange circle"

[Reporter connection]

In mid -September, the yen exchange rate on the Tokyo foreign exchange trading market fell to $ 1,44.90 yen at a time, and forced the 145 yen mark. Market analysts pointed out that from the current trend, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar may eventually fall below 150 yen. Economic countermeasures, energy shortage, and epidemic obstacles, various adverse factors are reflected in the yen exchange rate is the final depreciation. Prior to the issuance of a valid new economic policy, this depreciation will continue, and the Japanese economy will fall into a "strange circle" lacking endogenous motivation.

Effective economic countermeasures are difficult to introduce

The yen exchange rate has fallen all the way from 1 US dollar in early March. This plunge in a short period of time is very abnormal to many people.

Judging from the external factors of Japan, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further exacerbated the differentiation of global forces. The US dollar has greatly enhanced its own strength, and its global reserve currency status has been further stable. As global risk aversion funds have further increased the US dollar, the international status of the euro and yen has been relatively weakened, which directly led to the acceleration of the depreciation of the euro and the yen.

From the perspective of Japan's own factors, the Japanese economy has continued to weaken, and the shifting from large -scale surplus to a continuous deficit from large scale surplus constitutes the basis for the long -term depreciation of the yen. The recent expansion of the US -Japan spreads has caused yen to accelerate in the short term Declars depreciation.

The devaluation of the yen will undoubtedly lead to rising prices of imported goods, increased family expenditure and increasing burden. In an interview with the media, the real person of the Japanese Ministry of Finance, the financial officer of the Ministry of Finance, said in an interview with the media: "We are worried about the drastic fluctuations of the current Japanese yen and will not be relaxed to the exchange rate movement."

From the perspective of Japan's economic countermeasures, since March of this year, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Japan has repeatedly stated that it will take corresponding countermeasures, but it has not yet introduced effective measures for exchange rate changes to this day. Japan's industrial upgrade has not yet seen signs of improvement. The status of the Japanese economy in the global economy will further decline. Its major manufacturing country will continue to be replaced by China, South Korea, and even India. The trade deficit may continue. Therefore, for a long time in the future, the inner depreciation pressure of the yen may not disappear.

Energy shortage faces long -term trouble

Since the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the price of grain prices, crude oil prices, and fertilizer raw materials has expanded. This summer, high temperatures have continued to lead Tokyo Electric Power Corporation to issue a tension with power supply. And uneasiness and concern of life needs.

Taking wheat as an example, the total export volume of wheat exports in Russia and Ukraine accounts for 30 % of the world's total exports. For Japan, although wheat imports are mainly from the United States, Canada, Australia, but looking at the world, many countries have great demand for imported wheat, and wheat is increasingly fierce.

Low grain self -sufficiency rate is a very typical "old and new problem" in Japan. Japan's self -sufficiency rate declined year by year, only 37.17%(based on calories) in 2020, and set the lowest record since 1965. On January 17 this year, the Japanese Prime Minister Kishita Kishita explained the "economic security" strategy in his speech, but did not mention "food security". Some analysts point out that the Japanese government does not know enough about the food crisis. For a country, food security is the prerequisite for economic development and social stability. If food security is not guaranteed, it will only suffer endlessly.

Since late June, Japan has encountered rare high temperature weather. Data show that this is the hottest June since Japan had a temperature record in 1875. On July 1st alone, Tokyo dispatched 3274 ambulances due to heat stroke, which was twice that of previous years. The Japanese government launched a three -month national power -saving season on July 1. Japan's proposal to use the public to use air conditioners reasonably to turn off non -necessary lamps. People are generally worried that the tension of power supply will continue.

The epidemic is a direct hindrance factor

According to Japanese media reports, on September 20, the number of new new crowns in Japan was about 30,000. Against the background of the epidemic began to relieve, the Japanese government plans to completely abolish the number of daily entry restrictions in October and open free travel in order to restore it to the same as before the epidemic. Japan's "National Travel Support" project will also restart in September. Not long ago, the Japanese government decided to further relax the entry policy from September 7th, exempt 72 -hour nucleic acid negative proof of 72 -hour vaccine, and increase the number of daily entry limit from 20,000 to 50,000. This series of measures show that under the pressure of the continuous depreciation of the Japanese yen and rising prices, Japan urgently hopes to break the disease obstacles and promote the recovery of the economy as soon as possible.

Muhara Kihashi, deputy head of Japan's official house, said that the depreciation of the yen and the opening of foreign tourists are the most effective countermeasures to restore the Japanese economy. He emphasized that Japan is very attractive in autumn and winter. Many foreign tourists come to visit and tourism, so they must let go of the immigration policy as soon as possible.

Japan is currently the only country in the country that has not been fully opened in the country. The Japanese economy strongly recommends open personal free travel as soon as possible, and strives to maintain the same level of openness as European and American countries. The Japanese tourism industry is even more eager to try, and it is full of expectations for canceling the upper limit and lifting personal tourism. People in the tourism industry have stated that before the autumn tourist season comes, it will be very worthy of celebration if it can be fully opened.

Regarding the entire opening of the country, people in the health industry in Japan have expressed different opinions and concerns. Some experts in the Japanese government infection are believed that if all foreigners enter the country at once, I am afraid that it will lead to the eighth round of epidemic. According to the latest statistics of the World Health Organization, although Japan's newly -added infection from September 5th to 11th decreased by 54%compared with the previous week, more than 530,000 people have ranked first in the world for 8 consecutive weeks; death 1681 1681 People are second only to the United States (2306 people). The Minister of Labor Labor Kato Katsui called for the next round of the possibility factor of the next round of epidemic, depending on the order of priority and regional conditions, and actively promoting new vaccination. Beginning on September 20, priority for vaccination for people over the age of 60 or more who have not yet vaccinated the fourth dose have been launched.

Faced with the judgment and concerns of the new crown pneumonia epidemic at the end of the year at the end of the year, the Japanese government plans to expand the vaccination object of the new vaccine to the 12 -year -old who has been vaccinated at least two doses of vaccine with a general time node in mid -October. Essence

(Our newspaper Tokyo, September 21st.

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