Zheng's eyes look at the market 丨 can shrink again, or it will rebound

On Wednesday, A -shares fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.17%to 3117.18 points. The remaining stock indexes have fallen relatively. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the GEM Composite Index fell 0.37%and 0.88%, respectively, and the Shanghai Science and Technology 50 Index fell 1.5%. On Wednesday, the turnover of the large market was further reduced under the fact that it was very low, and the popularity was obviously relatively scattered.

The rising varieties are mainly concentrated in banks, securities firms, oil and gas, transportation facilities, etc. The decline is mainly concentrated in hotel catering, tourism, technology, medical care and other varieties. In addition, three of the four new shares listed on the day were broken.

Regarding the expansion of new shares or distribution, additional issuance, etc., I have expressed concerns recently, and because of financing pressure, it is indeed quite large. Take a step back, even if financing is reasonable, relevant financiers have to take care of the interests of investors. The market available funds are far from being so optimistic that some people are imagined. Recently, commercial banks lowering the deposit interest rate may not be used, because the main driving force for funds to enter the market is the "money -making effect", not like this "loss effect".

Photo source: Photo Network-500622996

In recent days, it seems that some white horse stocks have dived suddenly, which has further significantly expressed the loss of money. In addition to the earlier Ningde era, the recent number of diving popular stocks that can be won include about the following: Longji Green Energy, Yaoming Kangde, Oriental Fortune, Ai Meike, San'an Optoelectronics, Mai Rui Medical, etc.

The market with a serious "losing money effect" is obviously lacking attractive. At most, it is just that the stock funds are dismantling to make up the west, and the incremental funds are natural to the stock market.

Originally, there was a new and market value demand for A shares. Now even this "benefits" have been canceled, and incremental funds naturally become less. Investors are passively signed, and sometimes they will bring incremental funds, and this is often ignored.

Northbound funds sold A shares by 30.60 billion yuan in nets throughout the day, and Hong Kong stocks also fell 1.79%. The Northbound Fund has always been related to the exchange rate of the RMB, and the performance of the RMB exchange rate on Wednesday has indeed been not good. From the beginning of the morning, it has continued to slip. When the A -share closing is closed, the offshore RMB has degraded to about 7.06.

The Fed will raise interest rates early on Thursday, Beijing time. In recent weeks, most market participants believe that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 base points, and there are also a few people speculated that they will raise interest rates by 100 base points. However, the Swedish Central Bank raised a sharp interest rate hike 100 base points on Tuesday, which may increase the expectations of the above -mentioned "interest rates 100 base points" a little bit.

Before the market, investors should care about news related to the Fed's interest rate conference, or look at the trend of the foreign exchange market. In addition to interest rate hikes, investors have to pay attention to other signals released in the Federal Reserve Conference.

Regardless of how much the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this time, it will almost continue to raise interest rates in the future, nothing more than the amplitude and duration. The market will make ahead of time. Once the market realizes that the Fed ’s interest rate hike cycle is close to the end, the market will operate in advance in advance.

However, it is worth mentioning that, as far as the actual situation of the global financial market is concerned, this time the market may not bet on "when the interest rate hike end", but may be "when will the interest rate hike get smaller". Specifically, if the Federal Reserve raises the rate of each rate from 75 base points to 25 base points, then it can be understood as an inflection point.

With the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the market uncertainty may decrease, and the turnover may be slightly larger at that time. It is likely that the volume will be seen on Thursday and Friday, and the volume usually means a rebound.

However, even if A shares have some rebounds, it is difficult to be optimistic for the time being. At present, it is quite close to the National Day holiday, and a major meeting will be held shortly after the long holiday resume transactions, so even if the market rebounds, the emotions will take advantage of the emotions soon.

On the whole, investors should still adopt defensive strategies during this period. The oversold varieties in the positions can generally be held. If there is a variety with a relatively high position in the hand, how many should also be prevents complement.

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