Cost pressure expansion projects are postponed!How does the "first share of the milk" panda dairy do not increase the price?

The 2022 semi -annual report shows that the operating income of panda dairy products achieved 378 million yuan, a decrease of 3.1%year -on -year; the net profit of home mother was 23 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 37.28%

"Investment Times" researcher Dong Lin

The "first share of the milk" Panda Dairy Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Panda Dairy, 300898.SZ) has a major shareholder reduction.

On the evening of September 7, Panda Dairy issued an announcement saying that Guo Hong, director Guo Hong and his consistent actors Zhou Wei, who held a total of 7.5771%of the company's shares, plans to The company's shares were reduced by a concentrated bidding method, accounting for 2.00%of the company's total share capital.

In fact, on October 18 last year, that is, the company's limited sales of about 30.263 million shares lifted the ban and on the day of the listing and circulation. Essence In February this year, Panda Dairy issued another announcement saying that Guo Hong and her husband Zhou Wei would reduce the company's shares of the company's shares in the next 6 months due to personal funds, accounting for 2%of the company's total share capital.

Behind the frequent reducing holdings of the vice chairman, the company's performance has continued to be under pressure. Since the third quarter of last year, panda dairy performance has continued to decline. In the third and fourth quarters of 2021, net profit attributable to the mother fell 10.74%and 60.74%, respectively. The 2022 semi -annual report showed that the company achieved operating income of 378 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 3.1%; net profit attributable to mother was 23 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 37.28%.

"Investment Times" researchers noticed that although panda dairy raised prices of 3%-10%of the price -related products at the beginning of this year, the cost of raw materials such as large bags and sugar still increased more than the price increase, and the company's profitability declined. At the same time, the company's expansion project originally planned to be put into production in June this year suddenly announced its extension, and the production date was postponed by 2 years, which was related to its digestive pressure of its capacity.

In terms of secondary market, since 2022, the stock price of panda dairy has continued to fluctuate. Compared with the issue price of 10.78 yuan/share on the first day of listing, compared with the closing price of 86.78 yuan/share, as of the close of September 19, the stock closed at 17.27 yuan/share, a 80 % decrease from the high point when listing.

In response to the frequent reduction of shareholders, cost control, inventory and capacity status, the Emperor Investment Times researcher's email communication outline to the relevant departments of panda dairy products has not received the reply as of the press time.

The trend of changes in the stock price of panda dairy since listing (yuan/share)

Data source: wind

In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin of the core business dropped by nearly 10 percentage points

Panda dairy products were founded in 1996. The main business is the research and development, production and sales of concentrated dairy products, which are three types of concentrated dairy products, and dairy trade. The main products of the company include the "Panda" brand series of sweet refining milk, whole fat sweet refining milk, modulation of light refinery milk, whole fat -refined milk, sweet milk sauce, Marri -La cheese, cheese stick, dilute cream and so on.

In the first half of 2022, the operating income of Panda dairy was 378 million yuan, a decrease of 3.1%year -on -year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 23 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 37.28%. Among them, in the second quarter of 2022, the company's main revenue in a single quarter was 185 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 4.46%; net profit attributable to mothers in the single quarter was 111 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 49.37%.

"Investment Times" researchers noticed that under the significant increase in raw materials, the continuous pressure on the cost end is an unavoidable problem for panda dairy products.

From the perspective of revenue composition, the company's gross profit margin with the largest revenue of the company's revenue has declined obviously. In the first half of 2022, Panda Dairy's concentrated dairy products included 248 million yuan, an increase of 13.19%year -on -year, accounting for 65.61%of the company's total revenue. The operating cost of the business during the same period was as high as 183 million yuan, an increase of 30.35%year -on -year, and the cost increase was much higher than the growth rate of revenue. Among them, the direct materials of the concentrated dairy products, the direct artificial and manufacturing costs increased by 44.31%, 45.92%, and 40.53%year -on -year, respectively. Affected by this, the gross profit margin of the concentrated dairy business was 26.34%, a decrease of 9.7%.

Wind data shows that from 2017 to 2021, the gross profit margin of panda dairy dairy products was 40.54%, 40.0%, 36.04%, 34.65%, and 31.07%, respectively, which has declined for four consecutive years. During this period, the overall gross profit margin of Panda dairy fell from 30.07%to 23.45%, and the first half of this year continued to decrease to 20.75%. Weak.

In order to ensure the gross profit space, panda dairy is also increasing product prices. At the end of 2021, the company issued a price adjustment announcement stating that, in view of the continuous rise in the cost of major raw materials, packaging materials, artificial and transportation, the company adjusted the factory price of major refining -related products. Implementation on January 1, 2022. In other words, in the first half of this year, the company's net profit was still recorded on the basis of "price increase". It can be seen that the company's price lifting effect has not reached expectations.

It is worth noting that in terms of To B business, panda dairy depends more on head customers and raw material suppliers. According to the company's 2021 report, the sales of the top five customers accounted for nearly 18%of its annual sales, and the main customers include Xiang Piaopiao (603711.SH), China Resources, United Leahua, etc. The total purchase amount of the top five suppliers in Panda dairy accounted for nearly 79%of the total annual procurement, of which the number one supplier accounted for 60.86%of the year. Analysis in the industry believes that for panda dairy products mainly based on To B business, while increasing prices and improvement of gross profit margin, it may also make it risk of losing big customers. The main reason for the decline in the gross profit margin of panda dairy products is that the cost of raw materials has risen. Therefore, for panda dairy products with high dependence on large customers, the price increase is not a long -term plan. Turnive reduction and efficiency are the good strategy of Changhong.

In the first half of 2022, the main business revenue and gross profit margin of panda dairy products (yuan)

Data source: wind

Increased inventory pressure, extension of production expansion projects

"Investment Times" researcher noticed that the production and sales rate of panda dairy concentrated dairy products decreased from 100.1%in 2019 to 99.5%in 2021. As of the end of June this year, the value further dropped to 96.46%. At the same time, the company's inventory has been rising. Wind data shows that from 2019 to 2021, panda dairy inventory was 65 million yuan, 104 million yuan and 134 million yuan, respectively. As of the end of June 2022, its inventory was 227 million yuan, an increase of 33.24%over the same period last year.

During the period, the company's inventory turnover days and turnover rates were changed. The former increased from 84.87 days in the same period last year to 108.33 days; the latter dropped from 2.12 to 1.66 times, and the net business cycle also pulled from 82.59 days to 98.72 days. In this regard, industry insiders analyzed that inventory increased, while the company's inventory turnover decreased, or it said that panda dairy products currently have a certain amount of inventory pressure.

Increase in inventory may also increase the liquidity risk of panda dairy products. As of the end of June 2022, the company's net cash flow generated by the company was -0.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 179.61%. Regarding the cause of the decline, the company stated in the annual report that it was mainly due to the increase in the company's purchase of goods during the period.

It is worth mentioning that on June 23 this year, the board of directors of Panda Dairy passed the proposal and decided to postpone the fundraising project "Cangnan annual production of 30,000 tons of concentrated dairy production projects" (hereinafter referred to as Cangnan project). It was extended in June 2022 to June 2024.

Regarding the reason for the extension, the company stated in the announcement that the epidemic in 2020 repeatedly caused the material logistics to be affected. At the same time, the relocation of the new plant did not reach the original plan, which caused the delay.

The Cangnan project is a fundraising project when Panda Dairy was listed in 2020. The original planned total investment was 351 million yuan. The construction content was to relocate the original production line related equipment to the Cangnan Industrial Park as a whole to transform and upgrade the company's original concentrated dairy product production line.

According to the original plan, the Cangnan project and the annual output of 60,000 tons of concentrated dairy products will be put into production in June this year. At that time, the total production capacity of panda dairy products will reach 126,000 tons, which is 3.5 times the previous. In 2021, the company's sales volume was only 30,000 tons, an increase of 13.81%year -on -year.

Analysis of the industry believes that panda dairy products have always faced the problem of low production capacity utilization. In recent years, the company's sales growth has been limited. The previously invested capacity expansion projects will be densely put into production in 2022. The capacity utilization rate may be further declined. New production capacity may face idle risks.

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