Daily discussing money | Rate interest rate hikes this week, is the price of gold coming?

Today Guest: Gold Investment Analyst Zhang Bo

On September 12th, the international gold price opened high and low, reaching a maximum of $ 1735/ounce, and the minimum reached $ 1653/ounce. At the end of the week, it closed at $ 1677/ounce, a new low in the year. U.S. inflation data, which is still expected to suppress the expectations of the market to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in the Fed, gold has been sold again.

Last week, data released by the Ministry of Labor showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 8.3%year -on -year in August. Although 8.5%of the previous month fell, it was higher than the expected 8.1%, which made the market expect inflation. Falling go bankrupt again. Investors believe that the inflation data that is stronger than expected will be more firmly determined by the Federal Reserve for the third consecutive hike, which will cause the US financial market to encounter double killing of stock bonds, US stocks plummeted, and short -term US debt yields have soared. Gold also suffered.

Generally speaking, in just 6 months, the Fed's interest rate is about to increase to 3%, which is unprecedented. Its main purpose is in addition to maintaining the US dollar status, but also helping to pass on domestic contradictions and harvest global assets for Wall Street. Obviously, as far as inflation is concerned, the Fed is difficult to achieve through a strong interest rate hike, but it has brought great turmoil and uncertainty to the global financial market, including the United States.

At present, energy and food prices are great uncertainty, and the disorders of global supply chain have brought severe challenges to the United States and Europe to control inflation. If the geopolitical crisis cannot be eased, the United States and Europe want to rely on interest rate hikes and shrinkage to control inflation. I am afraid it will be difficult to fall in a short period of time. In the middle and long term, the US dollar credit is gradually weakening, and the global de -US dollarization is irreversible. At present, the global commodities are gradually changing from a certain price of the US dollar to multiple currencies. For example, China and India are purchasing Russia's energy with RMB and rupee; energy powers in the Middle East and other places are gradually accepting other currencies. In short, more and more commodities are out of pricing from the US dollar, and the US dollar loses the dominant position of global currency, which is only a matter of time.

At the same time, many emerging economies such as Russia and Turkey, including Europe, have continued to sell US debt, and have also announced or are arranging to be shipped back to gold stored in the Federal Reserve. As of August, the global official gold reserve was about 36,000 tons, reaching the highest level in nearly 30 years. It can be seen that gold still acts as a trust anchor in the international currency system.

Looking forward to this week, in addition to continuing to pay attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, many central banks will also issue interest rate resolutions this week. Among them, the US FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements, and economic expectations in the early morning of Thursday. After that, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. The impact of this resolution or 75 basis points in interest rate hikes has been basically digested by the market. The market more concerned about Powell's speech, which may have a greater impact on the gold market.

From a technical point of view, the international gold price broke the strong support of $ 1,700/ounce to 1680 US dollars/ounce, and the short -term market emotions were empty. After the resolution of the interest rate, if the price of gold can return to the $ 1700/ounce mark, this week will change from air to more, looking at $ 1725/ounce resistance; if it is still maintained below the $ 1700/ounce Adjust, pay attention to the support of $ 1650/ounce to $ 1635/ounce.

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