Black commodity: Different September

Economic Observation Network reporter Li Ziyi entered September. The tepid transaction seemed to indicate that the black bulk market would continue the market in the first half of the year.

On September 20, the Steel price index of Shimben Shinkansen remained at 4,250 yuan/ton, which was another low since this year. For more than a month, steel prices have been continuously explored.

For a long time, real estate has been the largest downstream consumer market in steel. Xu Xiangchun, director of my steel network consulting director on September 20, analyzed the Economic Observation Network on September 20 that from time to time, it has now entered the traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period, which is the peak demand season in the year, but the market conditions at the moment are completely complete Without the scene of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the main reason is that the economic recovery of the second half of the year is not strong enough. Although the infrastructure and cars that drive the demand for steel are the highlights, they cannot hedge the negative drag brought by the bottom of the real estate.

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July this year, the house construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 859.194 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. Among them, the residential construction area was 6070.29 million square meters, a decrease of 3.8%. The new construction area of ​​the house was 760.67 million square meters, a decrease of 36.1%. Among them, the new construction area of ​​the residential house was 55.919 million square meters, a decrease of 36.8%.

The monitoring of another Steel Information Information Platform Lange Iron and Steel Network shows that when the market is about to enter in late September, the market does not show the rhythm of the peak season. On the contrary, the phenomenon of steel manufacturers' price reduction in the market on Monday opened the market, and the spot transactions were average.

The agency believes that from the perspective of the current market operation, on the one hand, the real estate end is still going down, and the real estate development investment and new construction area are still declining; while infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment and automobile production and sales continue to accelerate recovery, of which infrastructure in August infrastructure Investment increased by more than 15%, raising the growth rate of the first August to more than 10%. In addition, the service industry, consumption, and employment rates of young people have improved, but this part of the incremental increase is limited to the steel market.

"From the perspective of supply, since July, the large -scale production reduction of steel mills has been reduced, and the supply has shrunk rapidly. The market confidence has a great impact. In the case of weak demand, if the supply has not increased its efforts to adjust the corresponding adjustment, then it is difficult for the market to reach a balance, and there will be imbalances in supply and demand again. "Xu Xiangchun predicted.

Regarding the judgment of the steel market in the next period of time, the mainstream judgment of the industry is currently inclined to believe that the volume and price of black commodities in the short term will be more difficult. Zhang Tianyong, general manager of Ruida Futures Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Branch, recently judged on the "2022 Jinan Steel City Summit Forum" that: with the global economy will enter a substantial decline, the steel market has entered a new round of bear market cycle. This is certain in fundamentals.

Zhang Tianyong believes that the commodities are basically a large cycle in 35 years, a small cycle of 5-7 years, and the Chinese steel market is the same as the entire commodity cycle. At present, major steel varieties such as threads and hot rolls basically show the same trend as the entire commodity.

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