Zhang Aoping: In September, LPR was still underwriting, and the implementation of the policy must be increased

Zhongxin Jingwei September 20th. Question: LPR in September is not moving, and the implementation of the policy must be increased

Author Zhang Aoping Institute of Extraction Research Institute

On September 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Bank of China Interbank Borrowing Center that the LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) on September 20, 2022 was: one -year LPR was 3.65%, and the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.3%. The above LPR is valid before the LPR is released next time. Both the 1 -year and 5 -year LPR remain unchanged.

LPR reduction can fully reflect the changes in market interest rates. Since the start of the new round of interest rate cuts in December 2021, LPR has lowered 4 times. In this decline, both the 1 -year and 5 -year LPR maintained the previous value unchanged. In this regard, the author believes that the space for subsequent policy efforts still exists.

From the perspective of the external environment, at present, the high inflation of the Western economy is high, and it will become a strong tightening macro fiscal and monetary policy that will be inevitable, which will further suppress the effective market demand. The University of Michigan released the consumer confidence index in September was 59.5, which was less than 60.0 expected; the final value of the consumer confidence index in the euro zone in August was -24.9, which was close to the historical low. Western developed economies, as the global ultimate demand countries, have a decline in demand, will likely lead to gradually weakening China's exports. At present, domestic exports have shown related signs. In August, China's exports increased by 11.8%year -on -year (18%in July and 13.2%in the first half of the year).

From the perspective of internal environment, first of all, although domestic consumption is stable, it is still weak. In August, consumption achieved a high growth of 5.4%year -on -year, but considering the low base of the same period in 2021, the author believes that the consumption of residents in the private sector is expected to change. And private enterprises in the private sector have confident investment and development.

Secondly, since entering the third quarter, the economy has achieved a certain degree of repairs in a certain degree. The main reason is that government departments have strengthened the lack of missing economic activities, and macro fiscal and monetary policy cooperate with infrastructure investment (infrastructure investment in the first half of the year increased by 7.1%year -on -year. In the past The average two -year increased by 1.8%year -on -year, 11.5%in July, and 14.2%in August).

The economic recovery often requires "two steps". In the first step, government departments have contributed to infrastructure investment to stabilize the economic market and create effective market demand. In the second step, the private sector relays government departments, that is, private enterprise investment, residents' consumption, and endogenous growth in the economy. At present, the second step of economic realization is difficult to fulfill. The author believes that the root cause lies in the weakness of market players' expectations and confidence.

From the perspective of PMI, the pioneering indicator of economic operation, although the data recorded in August has recovered from July, it continues to be in the contraction range, which reflects that the level of China's economic prosperity level has fluctuated since the month -on -month restoration. Firm, endogenous recovery has resistance.

From the perspective of large, medium and small enterprises PMI, the large -scale enterprise PMI in August to the expansion range reflects the efforts of central enterprises and state -owned enterprises in infrastructure construction investment; Increased development expectations and confidence continued to be weak, and also showed insufficient market valid demand.

From another advanced indicator of economic operation, in August, the total amount and structure also reflected the resistance of endogenous recovery, and the private sector was difficult to relay government departments. In August, the new social integration was 2.43 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase to 557.1 billion yuan, which was a new low since the epidemic in 2020.

The author believes that when the private sector expects unstable and inadequate confidence, and the economy is difficult to achieve endogenous recovery, macro policies must still increase their implementation and take the initiative. The monetary policy should adhere to the short -term and long -term, long -term, economic growth and stability of prices, internal and external equilibrium, and adhere to the strategic determination of "mainly me", seize the key time window, and increase market entities, especially small and medium -sized enterprises, especially small and medium -sized enterprises. Credit support. We should subsequently refine the policies and implement the dual functions of the total amount and structural, thereby improving the expectations of the department, boosting confidence in the private sector, and avoiding "permanent trauma" due to insufficient confidence. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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